Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
711 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Local radar display shows a swath of light to moderate rain
from the southeast Panhandle and southwest NEB to north central
NEB. Lightning activity is pretty scant now and is very infrequent
based on NLDN and ENTLN. The heaviest axis of rain fell over
southwest NEB into the southern Sandhills and Loup River basin
over the last 6 hours. Of which, KIML and KLBF reported 1.86 and
1.54 inches, respectively. MRMS precip analysis showed estimates
generally up to 2 inches of rainfall in the heaviest axis over
western NEB, though some spots had estimates exceeded 2.5 inches.
Overall, intensity in precip has decreased as convection has been
weakening. This trend with respect to precip intensity is expected
to continue into early tomorrow. Clouds, the lack of insolation,
wet conditions will contribute to highs reading very mild today
with daytime highs forecast about 20 degrees below seasonable
normals. Later today, increased elevated instability this
afternoon will prompt the possibility for thunderstorms again,
however, no strong or severe thunderstorms are anticipated.
Overall, another 0.75-1.00 inches of rainfall possible through
tonight across southwest NEB and southeast Panhandle to north
central NEB.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Cooler, drier air will be in place in the wake of the system on
Sunday. Lingering cloud cover will also help hold highs down,
with highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High pressure
will move east of the area by Monday with return south to
southeast flow at the surface. This will draw moist air back north
into the area, with dew points rising into the 50s Monday, and
then remaining in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most of the upcoming
week. In the upper levels, another trough will develop across the
western CONUS, with general southwest flow aloft across the
central portions of the country. As temperatures warm, combining
with ample amounts of low level moisture, at least scattered
thunderstorms are expected for much of the upcoming week. Hard to
pinpoint the better chances at this point, but any shortwave
disturbances embedded within the flow will likely enhance
convective chances and potentially a few severe storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Regional radar display shows a swath of light to moderate rain
showers covering much of western and north central NEB with
rainfall amounts generally peaking around a tenth to fifteenth
hundredths of an inch per hour. Ceilings vary between LIFR-IFR in
northern NEB to IFR/MVFR/low-end VFR (less than 7 kft) across
southwestern NEB. A bit of a reprieve with respect to precip is
expected for portions of southwest NEB and the eastern Sandhills
late morning-early afternoon with additional showers then
anticipated mid afternoon on. Otherwise, ceilings today will
remain low, generally IFR-MVFR. Chances for isolated thunder
returns in the afternoon. Rain chances then diminish west-east
gradually tonight with ceilings improving gradually from
northwestern NEB into southwestern NEB.


Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Flood warnings remain in effect for the North Platte river at
North Platte and at Lewellen wherein minor flooding is forecast.
While localized or minor flooding (e.g., warranting a flood
advisory) remains possible today-tonight depending on storm
coverage/intensity and duration of rainfall, the threat for flash
flooding given the latest flash flood guidance and anticipated
rainfall appears low.


Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ022-035>038-056>059.



LONG TERM...Taylor
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