Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261709
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

It will be fairly quiet today as we await the next trough that was
centered over California overnight. Southwest flow aloft was
starting to impinge on the Rockies, and this will begin to enhance
the leeside trough with subsequent increased pressure gradient.
Winds out of the southeast will respond, with 15 to 25 mph expected
later in the day, particularly along/west of U83 to the Colorado
border. Rising low level thicknesses will occur in response to the
upper level ridge axis overhead along with increasing southwest
momentum aloft. This will result in hotter temperatures this
afternoon, with widespread mid to upper 90s forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Severe weather risk will be increasing starting late Sunday as the
California trough approaches the Rockies and adjacent western Great
Plains. All models suggest a fairly classic severe weather pattern
for the western Great Plains with multiple days of southwest flow 30-
40 knots in the mid levels of the troposphere over fairly strong
south/southeast flow in the lower troposphere. Early indications
from GFS and NAM forecast hodographs are that supercell thunderstorm
structures will likely be the preferred mode Sunday evening through
Tuesday evening with large areas of the western Great Plains showing
favorable strongly-curved clockwise hodographs 00z and 03z each
evening. These forecast hodographs, especially Monday evening,
suggest favorable tornado potential should enough surface moisture
pull back to far western Kansas (ideally, surface dewpoints 59 to
64F). As we head into Monday and/or Tuesday, (an) outflow
boundary(ies) could also play a role in any tornado potential which
will not be known in any sort of detail until the day of.
Regardless, the CAPE/shear profile will almost certainly support
very large hail well in excess of 2 inches in diameter with
supercells and perhaps an isolated giant hail report or two.
Eventually by Wednesday, the upper trough axis will be moving away
from the Great Plains, but broad westerly flow in the mid/upper
troposphere will remain with any cold advection/surface high
behind the departing high being quite weak. A stalling out frontal
zone around southwest KS or the OK-TX panhandles could be the
focus for yet another day of organized severe weather late
Wednesday/Wednesday evening. The GFS and Canadian models both show
another pronounced trough moving into the West late in the week,
but it is too early to tell how/where this will manifest into
severe weather risk across the Great Plains. Very hot temperatures
may spread northeast ahead of this trough Thursday and Friday
with 100-degree temperatures quite possible (especially far
southern counties and into western OK and TX panhandle).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions through the entire TAF period for all locations
with SKC through the morning before few high clouds push across
the CWA. Winds currently out of the southeast 10-15kts for all
locations and will pick up gusting to 25kts by 21Z during max
heating of the day allowing for the strongest mixing of the
boundary layer to the surface. After 04Z, these winds will
diminish due to night time cooling and a temperature inversion
setting up at the surface under the clear skies. Winds will pick
back up again out of the southeast after the end of the TAF period
along with thunderstorm chances, but none during the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  65  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  97  65  94  66 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  98  64  96  64 /   0   0  30  20
LBL  97  65  95  66 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  98  65  93  68 /   0   0   0  20
P28  94  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Lowe



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