Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Quiet conditions for the time period with the elevated fire risk
the highlight for Wednesday afternoon. A passing shortwave will
move out of the region throughout this evening and an upper level
ridge will move into the central plains through Wednesday morning.
A 1030 mb high will progress from southern Minnesota this evening
to southeast Texas by Wednesday afternoon. As a trough of low
pressure develops in eastern Colorado winds will increase out of
the southwest through the day Wednesday 20-35 mph. Relative
humidity is forecast to be around 20% so it will be close to red
flag criteria. The leading edge of milder air will also move in by
Wednesday afternoon and highs should be around 70 for the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

On Wednesday a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen
across eastern Colorado as an upper level ridge crosses the
central Rockies. As the westerly downslope flow improves mid week
the 850mb temperature trends show a nice warm up across eastern
Colorado and western Kansas. Net 24 hour temperature change from
00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday is forecast to range from 7 to 10C.
Another 7 to near 10C warmup is once again forecast to occur from
00z Thursday to 00z Friday. This continues to support unseasonably
warm temperatures currently forecast on Wednesday and Thursday
with highs near 85 in several locations still looking on track.
Some records will be in jeopardy on Thursday afternoon. At Dodge
City the record high for March 15th is 83, and 84 is the record at
Garden City. Medicine Lodge Record high for March 15th is 84. All
three of these records were set in 2013.

Gusty winds and dry conditions will accompany this warmup mid
week and based on the expected gusty southwest winds and afternoon
relative humidity values falling back into the 15 to 25 percent
range...elevated to near critical fire risk levels are expected
both days.

This mornings GFS and ECMWF were coming into better agreement
with the strength and timing of an upper level trough as it
crosses the West Central High Plains Thursday night and Friday.
The late week cold front is now expected late Friday as an upper
level trough crosses the West Central High Plains. This will bring
an end to the mid week warmup and following this solution it
looks like conditions once again will be favorable for another day
where relative humidity values fall back into the teens along
with gusty in excess of 25 mph. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will once again be possible, especially west
and south of Dodge City. Outdoor burning should not be attempted
from Wednesday through Friday.

Friday night into early Saturday gusty north winds will develop
behind a cold front which will move from southern Kansas into
Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle . These gusty winds should
subside during the day on Saturday as an area of high pressure at
the surface crosses the Central Plains. The current forecast highs
on Saturday may end up being a little too warm based on the
forecast 850mb temperatures at 00z Sunday . This cool down will be
brief as another warmup is expected late this upcoming weekend
and into early next week.

Precipitation chances over the next seven days will be small but
it does look like there will be a slight chance for some scattered
thunderstorms across northern Kansas Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR and mostly SKC conditions through the time period with the
exception of a few high clouds towards the end of the TAF
forecast. Winds will stay relatively light until mid Wednesday
morning. Winds will start to pick up around 13Z and then increase
by 16Z in the 15-25 kt range with gusts up to 30 kts. These strong
winds will continue into the afternoon.


DDC  57  30  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  30  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  54  36  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  57  32  71  44 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  54  27  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  58  30  68  42 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.