111
FXUS63 KDDC 270905
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook of Marginal Risk for our
  southeastern counties mainly along the Oklahoma line for slow-
  moving thunderstorm potential (late this afternoon/evening).

- Saturday and Sunday hottest days of the 7-day period with
  widespread mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 100
  degrees.

- Next cold front will bring in higher rainfall chances Sunday
  Night into Monday, but severe weather risk is quite small
  given poor wind shear environment.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The overnight satellite and objective analysis fields showed a
fairly quiet setting across western Kansas. There was a remnant
mesoscale convective system (MCS) still festering well to our south
along the Red River region near Childress, TX, and this was the
closest convective activity to southwest Kansas overnight.  This
small MCS seemed to be tied to the lingering mid level moist plume
as well as within a subtle right-entrance region to a 250mb jetlet
which extended from New Mexico into northwest Kansas. This
subsynoptic jetlet is not expected to move much or change
characteristic much today, and may be enough to help spawn renewed
surface-based convection in this same general region and perhaps
northward into the Red Hills region of our forecast area (Clark-
Comanche-Barber County). For that reason, we will have some Slight
Chance (20%) POPs in our southeastern zones and mention potential
heavy rainfall rates with strongest storms, aligning with latest WPC
ERO Marginal Risk that was just issued at 0815Z. Other than that,
the rest of the DDC CWA will remain fairly quiet and very warm with
afternoon temperatures warming to highs about 3 or 4 degrees hotter
than yesterday into the lower to perhaps mid 90s.

Afternoon temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be the hottest of
the forecast period as 850mb temperatures climb to the +25 to +27C
range, supporting surface temperatures well into the mid to upper
90s most areas. The absence of any appreciable forcing for ascent
Saturday will result in a dry forecast, but by late Sunday
afternoon we will be watching a cold front push south into western
Kansas. Global models are in pretty good agreement with more
organized thunderstorm development affecting at least some portion
of the DDC CWA in vicinity of this frontal zone, although there are
the typical timing and location forecast challenges. NBM has
greatest QPF signal farther east deeper into central and eastern
Kansas with only 20-30% chance of 0.25" or greater QPF over a 24-hr
period ending 12Z Monday. As the front continues to push south
Monday, so will the thunderstorm and heavier rain potential, which
is also reflected in the NBM with the 20-30% probs of 0.25"+ mainly
across the southeastern half of the DDC CWA with 40%+ probs into the
Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma.  The front will result in "cooler"
temperatures early next week with highs Monday through Wednesday in
the 80s for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

This TAF period will be quiet with no thunderstorms forecast at
HYS, DDC, GCK, and HYS. Light winds tonight through much of the
morning Friday will be less than 10 knots, increasing gradually
to around 12 knots by midday/early afternoon. Thunderstorms
developing across southeastern Colorado late in the day Friday
are not expected to move into southwest Kansas, or at least any
of the terminals, with no other thunderstorm initiation expected
across western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid