Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
539 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Temperatures yesterday ended up a few degrees warmer than what
was anticipated and based on little change in the 850mb to 700mb
temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday would expect highs
today very similar to those yesterday. This would yield another
day with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.
Clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon and once again
with the increasing clouds there may be a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms across western Kansas. There will be another
opportunity of convection late day and early tonight as an upper
level trough crosses western Kansas. Ahead of this upper level
trough the shear was looking slightly better along with better
700mb to 500mb lapse rates so a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms can not be ruled out with these late day and evening
thunderstorms. Main hazards appears to be wind gusts of 55 to
near 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Thursday and early Friday an upper level trough will exit the
Rockies and move out into the Central and Northern Plains. As this
upper trough marches east across the Plains Thursday and early
Friday a surface boundary will move from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas and a cold front will drop south across the
Northern Plains. As these surface boundaries move into/near
western Kansas late Thursday some warm mid level temperatures (+10
to +14C 700mb temps) will also be spreading into far western
Kansas. Given this mid level warming and location of the surface
boundaries late day ahead of the the upper level trough Thursday
night it appear the areas favoring another chance for late day and
overnight storms will be across north central and locations east
of highway 283. Will need to monitor how convection develops over
southern Nebraska/northern Kansas Thursday evening and how far
east/north this warm layer spreads into western Kansas late day.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near and north the
northern and eastern edge of this warm layer Thursday night and
Friday. Further south across southwest Kansas the warm mid level
temperatures should limit convection chances.

It will feel like summer over the Memorial Weekend with highs
easily climbing into the 90s each day from Saturday through
Monday. Near 100 degrees temperatures may not be out of question
for a few locations near the Oklahoma border Saturday and/or
Sunday. The chance for convection at this time appears small, if
at all Saturday and early Sunday, as an upper level ridge axis
builds east out of the Central Rockies and into the Central Plains
but will need to monitor convection chances Sunday night as the
next, more significant, southern branch upper level trough
approaches southwest Kansas. Warm mid level temperatures may limit
onset until late day if convection does develop ahead of this
upper wave Sunday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move northeast across
western Kansas early this morning. HRRR, ARW, NMM, and NAM all
appear be trending towards this convection weakening early this
morning which seems to be occurring at this time based on the 10z
Wednesday radar loop. Given this will keep a mention of either
VCTS or -TSRA at Garden City and Liberal for the next few hours
while leaving all mention of thunder out of the Hays and Dodge
City TAFS. Models then show widely scattered convection
redeveloping mainly east of highway 283 after 18z. BUFR soundings
indicating low VFR or MVFR cloud bases this morning with VFR
ceilings likely this afternoon. Southwest to west winds at 10 to
15 knots will become southerly at 15 to 20 knots towards noon.
After 00z Thursday another round of convection will be possible as
an upper level trough, located over New Mexico earlier this
morning, moves into southwest Kansas.


Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

A warm and dry Memorial weekend can be expected across western
Kansas. Afternoon relative humidity values as low as 15 to 20
percent will be possible each afternoon this weekend across
portions of southwest Kansas. This combined with some gusty south
winds at 15 to 20 mph will result in an increase in fire risk
levels. Elevated to near critical fire danger levels will be
possible this weekend, especially west of a Garden CIty to Liberal
line Sunday and Monday.


DDC  90  64  90  65 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  88  63  91  62 /  30  30  20  10
EHA  86  61  91  62 /  30  30  20   0
LBL  87  63  91  64 /  30  30  20  10
HYS  88  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
P28  89  67  90  67 /  10  10  20  10




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
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