Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
403 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies today as
an upper level storm system amplifies over the Rockies. Winds will
be light over central Kansas but increasing to 15 to 20 kts along
the Colorado state line. Highs should vary from the lower 60s at
Hays to the upper 60s at Elkhart. Increasing southeast winds are
expected to keep temperatures a little warmer tonight, with upper
30s to near 40 degrees for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

The storm system we have been looking forward to for rain this
weekend will be approaching the high plains region by late Friday
as the lead vort lobe approaches. Unfortunately this system is
coming out in two pieces instead of one intense storm system. This
first system will be responsible for most of the shower activity
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Moisture will be one big
limiting factor since the last front plowed to the Yucatan
Peninsula and since low level trajectories are expected to be more
easterly out of the cool surface high to the east instead of from
the central Gulf. Rich low level moisture was currently confined
to deep south Texas and another front passing through Texas will
tend to push dry air even into southern Texas this afternoon.
This will only give a short time for moisture to return ahead of
the upper level storm system. We may not have any lightning at all
with this system given the marginal low level moisture and cool
lower levels.This will limit rainfall amounts; but widespread
quarter to half inch amounts are still expected, with a few
locations that experience the heavier showers receiving more. It
is too early to tell where the heaviest rain will be, but it`s
possible that the heavier amounts could be in far western Kansas
with the first vorticity lobe and then across south central Kansas
with the second system passing to the south of Kansas. Clouds and
showers will keep temperatures down in western Kansas Friday,
with warmer readings in central Kansas where the rain is expected
to hold off til evening.Temperatures Saturday will be held down
into the 40s to lower 50s by cloud cover and cool surface high
pressure building in from the north. A slow warming trend can be
expected by Sunday and Monday with highs reaching into the 60s.
The warming trend will be slowed due to a strong upper level
trough digging into the Midwest, with another area of cool surface
high pressure advancing into the plains by Tuesday. Another
warming trend can be expected in the wake of this system, with
highs warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A surface trough will form in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in light winds becoming southeast at 10 to 15 kts.
VFR conditions can be expected.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Near critical fire weather conditions can be expected in extreme
southwestern Kansas this afternoon, especially if you believe the
RAP/HRRR which have been outperforming other models in this
ongoing drought. Sustained winds are expected to increase to 20
mph with frequent gusts to 35 mph, along with humidity falling to
14-17% along the Colorado state line in Morton and Stanton
counties. Opted not to issue a red flag warning to preserve
continuity with surrounding offices and since humidity values will
be marginal. But since there have been wildfires in this area
recently, the next shift will need to take another look at this.


DDC  66  39  59  41 /   0  10  50  70
GCK  67  40  55  40 /   0  10  70  70
EHA  69  39  52  40 /   0  10  70  70
LBL  69  40  57  41 /   0   0  70  70
HYS  62  37  60  41 /   0   0  30  80
P28  65  38  64  44 /   0   0  20  70




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