Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

All precipitation has cleared off the radar scope as of midday for
a temporary break from the action, but this won`t last long. A
subtle boundary is seen on satellite/radar imagery sinking south
of Dodge City as of noon, with north winds near 20 mph in its
wake. This boundary will play an important role in convective
evolution this evening. A rather extensive cumulus field is
evident, much of it generating off the heavy rain/hail swath
across the northern zones from last night`s spetacular storm.
Despite the clouds and north winds, temperatures will warm easily
through the 70s this afternoon. Most if not all locations will
remain dry through 5 pm.

Another active round of thunderstorms is expected tonight, with
some again producing severe wind and hail. SPC has been trending
its marginal/slight categorical risks further NW toward our SW
zones, and we agree with this thinking. Virtually all short range
models generate convection off the Palmer Divide and/or the Raton
Mesa in Colorado/New Mexico mid afternoon, and subsequently
spread storms eastward into Kansas through tonight. We have high
confidence on this general outcome. The catch is, how many storms?
What will be the storm mode be? Where exactly do they track? How
severe will they be when they get to Kansas? As we learned last
night, we only need one storm to make for a long night. 12z NAM is
quite aggresive, spreading convection across areas west of US 83
this evening. Trend of HRRR interations has a squall line arriving
at Morton county by 7 pm, then progessing NE toward Dodge City by
10 pm. This NEly trajectory makes sense, with 500 mb flow a bit
south of due west. CAPE and shear combination will again support
convection and allow it to persist well into Kansas. Consensus of
short term models suggest large hail and/or damaging wind is most
likely across the SW counties through midnight, and this is where
severe wording was included in the grids. Again tonight, the
tornado risk is very low. That said, I am concerned with boundary
across the southern zones. If a discrete supercell can anchor on
that boundary ahead of the developing squall line (something the
HRRR is starting to suggest) than a brief tornado can`t be ruled
out. Along with WFO Amarillo, increased pops to the likely
category along the Oklahoma border. Lows tonight in the 50s after
storms move NE, congeal or exit SW KS.

Wednesday...Upper flow configuration changes, as ridging amplifies
over the spine of the Rockies, in response to 565 dm closed low
entering central California. Moisture and instability will be
maintained through the afternoon, as SEly boundary layer flow
maintains upper 50s and lower 60s dewpoints. NAM suggests some
showers may persist well into the morning across the NE zones,
with most areas dry most of daylight Wednesday. Best chances for
initiation of new convection appears to be along the CO/KS line
late in the afternoon. SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail probability
along/west of US 83 appears reasonable. Temperatures warm a couple
more degrees into the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Forecast continues with low probability for thunderstorms
overnight for any nocturnal showers and storms that may linger
through the day. Mid level ridging beginning to develop also
Wednesday will help bump temperatures higher, although not
particularly hot as surface winds remain in a southeasterly
trajectory. Temperatures climb higher into the 80s and 90s by
Thursday and Friday. High uncertainty in this period as far as
convective chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

VFR will continue through Tuesday afternoon, with a mixture of
cumulus and mid level cloud. Winds will be light, generally less
than 10 kts, and maintain an easterly component. All airports are
expected to remain dry and convection-free through about 00z Wed.
Thunderstorm initiation is expected over the Palmer and Raton
mesas in Colorado at mid-afternoon, with several complexes
arriving in SW KS this evening through tonight. High confidence on
this general evolution, but exact placement of storms is unknown,
so have high uncertainty regarding direct convective impacts on
the airports. Included only VCTS/CB for now. The strongest
convective signals from NAM and other models is at LBL during the
03-06z timeframe, and included a convective TEMPO group. Winds
outside of convection will remain light through this TAF cycle,
along with broken mid layer clouds. Some models hint at a brief
period of stratus and/or reduced vis in BR/FG around 12z Wed at


DDC  77  59  82  60 /  50  30  30  10
GCK  76  58  81  58 /  30  30  20  10
EHA  74  55  84  58 /  30  60  20  10
LBL  77  57  83  60 /  30  40  20  10
HYS  78  57  80  58 /  10  10  20  10
P28  80  61  84  62 /  70  20  30  10




LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.