Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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838 FXUS63 KDDC 011700 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...Updated Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe thunderstorms expected eastern half of southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible. - Slightly cooler with strong north winds Thursday. - Widespread accumulating rainfall most likely Friday night and Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The ingredients needed for severe thunderstorms were converging on SW KS at midday. Surface observations showed a pronounced frontal boundary just north of the KS/OK border, that will be retreating northward as a warm front through the afternoon. Exactly how far this warm front advances northward, and exactly how expansive and unstable the resulting warm sector becomes, will dictate the severity of the expected storms late this afternoon/early evening. Mesoanalysis shows strong instability streaming north from West Texas (rerouted westward around Oklahoma outflow), and a pronounced triple point (warm front/dryline intersection) is expected to set up over the SE DDC CWA at peak heating this afternoon. Strong instability with CAPE > 3000 J/kg and enhanced storm relative helicity is expected in this region, with strong convergence near the triple point helping to overcome convective inhibition. Latest thinking is thunderstorms will initiate in the vicinity of US 283/DDC after 4 pm, then progress eastward through the southeast zones into the evening. Most CAMs are aligned along this scenario, and 12z ARW, which failed to convect previously, now agrees. Any discrete supercells in the expected environment near and southeast of DDC will be capable of 2-3" diameter hail and tornadoes. Storms that parallel the stalled boundary will need to be watched carefully for locally enhanced tornado potential. Per SPC coordination, Clark/Comanche/Kiowa counties are some areas at most risk this afternoon and evening. Shortwave timing appears favorably timed with a high octane warm sector, the only question is exactly where the warm sector sets up at max heating. With questions regarding coverage, kept pops conservative in the chance category for the eastern zones, but also included severe wording in the various products. Strong cold front associated with the passing shortwave is expected to surge southward after midnight, with north winds gusting over 30 mph. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop in the convergence along this advancing boundary, preferring the eastern zones again. Consensus of short term models suggests low stratus will expand in the post frontal environment, persisting through Thursday morning. North winds will be strong for much of Thursday, gusting 30-40 mph, ushering in noticeably cooler air. Models show a net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb Thursday. With increasing early May sunshine, temperatures will have no problem warming into the lower to mid 70s. Winds will veer NEly and diminish quickly Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Thursday night and Friday, the upper level trough will lift north into the Northern Plains, and this will be quickly followed by our next upper level system. The latest short range models currently have this upper trough located over the Central Rockies by 18z Friday. As this next system follows a similar track as the previous upper wave, there will be another opportunity for precipitation for all of southwest Kansas as convection is forecast to develop late day across northeast Colorado and then spread east into western Kansas along a mid level baroclinic zone/area of 0-1km thetae advection. This Friday night system may be of interest measurable precipitation given that the latest ensemble means were showing a 30-50% chance of 24-hour precipitation of >0.25 ending at 1 pm Saturday and a 20-30% chance of 24-hour precipitation of >0.5. Granted, this chance is not very high, but it is better than what we have seen over the past 3-4 weeks. Along with this chance for widespread precipitation the a few of the stronger storms early Friday night will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail up to the size of quarters. Once this Friday night system lifts northeast, some weak ridging aloft crosses western Kansas as the upper low over the Northern Plains moves into Canada. This will allow for a brief break in the precipitation chances, but the chance for thunderstorms will return Saturday night and then continue through Monday as our next, more significant, upper level low/trough exits the eastern Pacific and begins to move across the western United States towards the Central Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1022 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Widespread MVFR stratus at 15z is expected to improve to VFR over the next few hours, as a warm front makes progress to near US Highway 50 by 21z. Elevated winds will gust to near 25 kts through this time with an easterly component. After 21z, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely in the vicinity of DDC, between 21-00z. With low confidence of impacts directly at the airport, only carried VCTS/CB for now. Probability of convection at the other airports is too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs. A cold front is expected to bring a north wind shift 06-09z Thu, with strong north winds gusting to near 30 kts. Consensus of short term models shows post frontal MVFR stratus behind the cold frontal passage through 12z Thu. IFR stratus is most likely at HYS; in fact, IFR to MVFR stratus is expected to hold at HYS through most if not all of this TAF period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Turner