Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

Fog continues to develop across the area, so expanded the
advisory into northeast Colorado. Fog will gradually dissipate
this morning.

Convective allowing models continue to develop widely scattered
thunderstorms after 21z this afternoon near the Colorado Kansas
border area in response to a weak shortwave trough climbing up the
ridge centered over the southern plains. Environment will be
characterized by moderate instability of around 2500 Jkg and deep
layer shear of around 30kts. Although coverage will be rather
sparse with the weak forcing, the parameters suggest a severe
storm or two may be possible, with large hail and damaging winds.
Storms will dissipate by mid evening with the loss of surface
heating as they move northeast. High temperatures will reach the
lower 80s with breezy south winds.

The pattern does not change much for Tuesday. Southwest flow aloft
continues with another weak embedded shortwave trough coming out
of Colorado in the afternoon. However, instability and deep layer
shear parameters are not as favorable for severe storms compared
to Monday. Instability peaks at around 1500 Jkg and shear is only
around 15-20kts. As a result, not expecting severe storms on
Tuesday. Warm temperatures continue, reaching the middle 80s to
around 90, as do breezy south winds.

More of the same on Wednesday. Weak shortwave trough in southwest
flow in a weak to moderately unstable environment. Deep layer
shear ranges from 15-30kts, best in northeast Colorado, so might
see an isolated severe storm or two. High temperatures reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s and the breezy south winds continue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

A dissipated upper low travels from the northern Rockies to the
northern Plains on Thursday. Upper ridging builds into the region on
Friday and Saturday between the aforementioned system and the next
one forming on the west coast. By Sunday, the ridge amplifies over
the High Plains as the west coast disturbance presses into the
central Rockies.

Overall, the extended is dry with the exception being a couple of
spotty shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday as the
dissipated upper low transitions to the Great Lakes region.
Confidence is low during this timeframe due to the pattern and
variations in guidance, making it difficult to pinpoint the location
or timing of precipitation. The weekend should be dry with the ridge
overhead. Temperatures remain above normal throughout the
period, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Breezy south
winds gusting 25 to 30kts expected through 02z before falling
below 12kts from 03z-14z. After 15z south winds increase again
with gusts 20 to 25kts expected. Currently have no precipitation
impacting the terminal, however will need to watch the 22z-03z
timeframe as some of the computer models are generating
thunderstorms as a weather disturbance moves across the area.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. South-southeast
winds gusting around 20kts expected from taf issuance through 00z
before falling below 10kts and become east-southeast through the
night. After 17z south-southeast winds approach 12kts. Currently
have no precipitation impacting the terminal, however will need to
watch the 02z-06z timeframe as some of the computer models are
generating thunderstorms as a weather disturbance moves across the




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