Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
534 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018

Issued at 526 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018

Line of storms near Highway 83 will continue to move north while
slowly advancing east. The storms should be east of Norton and
Graham counties around 9 PM CT. Still not expecting these storms
to become severe.

To the west a lone severe storm continues to move eastward.
Recently the storm began to split, with the stronger updraft
heading more east. There may be a weak nose of the low level jet
close to where the storm is, which may cause the storm to
intensify briefly. Not very confident the storm will last long
once it moves into Cheyenne County do to the lift tapering off.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018

1830 UTC WV imagery indicated CWA under influence of shortwave
ridge with rather thick area of cirrus around outer periphery. At
the surface, low was deepening across southeast Colorado with some
semblance of a retreating dryline across western CWA.

Primary forecast concerns will be thunderstorm chances this
afternoon and tomorrow.

For today, not a lot of obvious forcing signals given position of
H5 ridge and with morning CAM data showing a wide spread of
solutions, confidence somewhat low in this weakly forced
environment. However, starting to see some run to run consistency
with rapid updating models so a clearer picture may be emerging.
Expect two areas of potential thunderstorm development, the
extreme eastern portion of the CWA where CU field beginning to
develop and western CWA, especially southwest CWA where
dryline/low circulation will be closest. Have increased chances a
bit in these areas, but am a little less confident in storms
moving a great deal from these initiation points in the evening
given weak upper level support. Despite some decent directional
shear, bulk shear values fairly weak and do not anticipate much
of a severe storm threat.

For tomorrow, with a bit more large scale forcing and overall
better shear profiles expect to see more organized/better coverage
to thunderstorms. Current forecast had a reasonable handle on this
with PoP forecast so overall changed little from going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018

Southwest flow aloft will exist at the beginning of the extended
period with a couple weak troughs moving through the flow. The
stronger flow aloft is expected to remain west and north of the
forecast area. Nonetheless, this pattern will create the
potential for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday night. For the most part these
rounds of convection are not expected to be all that organized.

From Friday through the weekend, an upper ridge builds over the
area limiting chances of convection for a few days. From Sunday
night into Tuesday the upper ridge will give way to an
approaching, slow-moving upper low moving across the Intermountain
region and spilling out into the High Plains. This will increase
chances of organized convection Monday and Tuesday. The GFS/EC are
fairly consistent with one another in terms of timing and location
of major features for most of the extended period.

A summer-like pattern will be in place for all of the period with
high temperatures in the 80s Thursday warming to near or into the
lower 90s Fri-Sun with lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions for the TAFs. Line of storms should be far enough
east of KMCK to negate a vcts mention. The storm in East Central
CO is not expected to last long enough to move over KGLD. During
the night the low level jet will strengthen, causing LLWS at both
sites. The LLWS may last until 12z.




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