


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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205 FXUS63 KGLD 111122 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 522 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week and into Saturday with the main threat of damaging winds. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Shortwave trough rotating through the base of an upper low over the northern plains will provide synoptic scale lift for thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight. Low level upslope will also aid in lift. Models in rare good agreement that a complex of storms will develop along the Front Range and northeast Colorado this afternoon and move across the forecast area tonight. Initially, hazards from this complex will be damaging wind gusts and perhaps some blowing dust/localized dust storms similar to yesterday as not much rain fell and after another day of temperatures in the 90s top soil should still be susceptible to blowing. Some small hail may also accompany stronger updrafts but instability is rather limited. As the complex settles into the area during the evening, concern will turn to heavy rain and possible flash flooding. Fairly decent signal from the HREF 3-hour PMMs for 3-hr QPF to exceed 1" in a small area centered around the Tri State border (Yuma/Dundy/Cheyenne KS), and even a low probability for 3" in the same area. The 50% probability for 1" extends another county or so beyond that, which is where the flooding risk will be located between approximately 03z and 09z tonight (9 PM MT to 3 AM MT). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A shortwave system will be moving through the area beginning around 21z in our westernmost areas and then progressing eastward. Generally, this system looks fairly progressive so it should be out of our area by 06z if not earlier. Recent model trends have been weakening this system as it moves through our area. Regardless, the environment is still decently favorable to see severe weather. The biggest limiting factor will be the lack of shear with this event. If we get enough instability this can be overcome, however, the instability is looking fairly lacking overall today, especially given the higher cloud cover than expected this morning. The locations with the best chance of seeing severe storms as this system moves through will be our westernmost areas, but it will be possible across our entire area. Given the high DCAPE among other variables, the damaging wind threat will be the biggest concern tonight with winds 60-75mph possible. We are outlooked in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather by SPC to reflect this threat. The main timing for these storms to be moving through will be starting around 3pm MT for the westernmost areas and getting to our Kansas counties by around 6pm MT. The whole thing should be through our area by midnight MT. As this system will be fairly progressive overall, the flash flooding threat will be quite minimal, and we are not outlooked by WPC for a concern of heavy rainfall. One other thing that we wanted to mention is that there has been some concern for blowing dust with the outflow boundaries tonight if these storms cold pool quickly, mainly since the soil was able to get quite dry yesterday from the higher temperatures. While the concern is a bit lesser now given the cooler temperatures today, visibilities may be slightly reduced near thunderstorms as a result, so we wanted to make sure to mention it. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Friday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern until a trough moves through the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Generally, scattered to numerous storms are expected. Confidence on this has been increasing looking at the recent model trends, but there is still some uncertainty in the short range models. The environment looks favorable enough for these storms to be strong to severe. The biggest limiting factor right now appears to be the lack of shear, but it is enough/decent. The main threat will be damaging winds (60-70mph) and a secondary lower threat of large hail. SPC has outlooked our entire area in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather to highlight this concern. The main timing for this storm development will be during evening hours predominantly. These storms will have the potential for some slow movement or training so there is a concern for minor flash flooding as a result. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Heavy Rainfall by WPC to highlight this risk. Once this system moves through early Saturday morning, upper level ridging begins to build over the area. As a result, conditions will be fairly dry overall Saturday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will be fairly mild with highs in the low to mid 90s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a fairly robust system is expected to move through the area. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the severity and timing of this system. Right now, the system may not line up with the best forcing/lifting. But a lot will depend on how things develop over the next week. Regardless, based on the initial modes, all modes of severe weather could be possible. This system will be something to watch, and we will be monitoring it as we get closer to the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Low ceilings may impact KMCK for a couple of hours early this morning. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move into the region from Colorado with reduced visibility and ceilings likely at both terminals. Gusty winds and blowing dust may accompany the initial onset of storms. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Williams LONG TERM...Williams AVIATION...KAK