Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Rest of Today: At 18Z, scattered showers persisted in northwest
Kansas and northeast Colorado, on the N/NW periphery of an upper
level low centered invof the central KS/CO border. Expect showers
to decrease in coverage through mid-afternoon as the upper level
low progresses southeast toward Liberal and Woodward. With an
atypically moist airmass in place, any decrease in cloud cover
/increase in insolation/ could aid in the development of isolated
showers late this afternoon. The window for such activity will be
relatively small, however, as subsidence /mid-level warming/ in
the wake of the upper level low will overwhelmingly suppress
development around or shortly after 00Z.

Tonight: With a moist airmass already in place, a clearing trend
this evening, and variable or calm winds /no advection/, fog
is likely to develop over the Tri-State area tonight. Widespread
dense fog is a distinct possibility. Freezing fog would most
likely be confined to elevations 4000+ ft (essentially along/west
of the CO/KS border) where moisture profiles are shallow and
radiational cooling stronger.

Sunday: Fog and stratus would typically lift/scatter within
a few hours after sunrise this time of year, however, given weak
low-level flow /lethargic mixing/, dissipation may not occur
until late morning. Shortwave ridging aloft in the wake of the
upper low suggests sunny or mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

At the start of the extended period the models are showing an upper
level ridge located west of the Rockies while at the same time an
upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes Region into the
High Plains.  This ridge looks to make its way east and influence
the local area with mostly dry conditions by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

However, before that happens, another upper level trough, along with
an associated surface front, will move down the eastern side of this
ridge and pass over the local area on Thursday. This will produce a
chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

The next possibility for precipitation looks to be Saturday
afternoon and evening, as an upper level shortwave trough moves
off the Front Range and into the Central High Plains.

With the an upper ridge moving over the region the afternoon highs
will start out reaching the lower to middle 60s and then reach into
the lower to middle 70s by Saturday.  The Overnight lows will
maintain in the lower to upper 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Low ceilings will be the contributor to less than VFR conditions
across the region overnight with an additional contribution by
lower visibilities due to fog that is expected to dissipate
rapidly after sunrise.

MVFR conditions at GLD will be intermittently IFR through the
early morning hours between 08Z-12Z with conditions dropping to
IFR through 15Z before improving to VFR after that.

MCK will start out MVFR with intermittent IFR to LIFR conditions
between 10-14Z before improving back up to VFR conditions after




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