Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1133 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear
except for some high thin cirrus working into the area from the
south. Temperatures are currently ranging from the upper 20s into
the mid 30s with winds out of the ESE...gusting in spots at times
around 15 to 20 mph.

For today...dry conditions are expected to persist thru the day
today with region in between high pressure to the east and an
approaching surface/upper low currently moving thru the Rockies.

Some patchy fog is possible for a few hours this morning in NE zones
closest to surface ridge.

The gradient between the two systems will give the area windy
conditions thru the day as a result. By the afternoon hrs...these
winds will aid in creating dangerous Fire Wx conditions over extreme
S/SW have issued a Red Flag Warning for the afternoon

Transition expected thru the afternoon as low complex moves off the
Front Range south of the CWA along the KS/OK border. Models have
consistently shown ample QPF potential for the region as this system
moves east later today on into the Monday timeframe. Looking for
light precipitation to develop by 00z Monday increasing in areal
coverage by 06z. Weak instability out ahead of the low continues to
give the chance for thunder for the area...especially SE zones. SPC
continues to have this area under a Marginal Risk for severe...
although past couple days has seen this Marginal Risk shrink further

Going into the evening/overnight the lows transition
eastward...expecting colder air to wrap around and into the area
from the north. The result of the CAA will allow for rain to
transition to light snow. Precip tapers from west to east during the
day Monday. Some lingering light rw/sw possible early Monday night
before high pressure returns for Monday night on into Tuesday night.

Fair consistency in expected snowfall for the transition over the
area...with highest amts of 1-3 inches for NW sections of the
CWA...tapering to a half inch or less elsewhere. At this time the
areas impacted by highest totals could see an Advisory posted later

For temps...daytime highs mainly in the 60s today ahead of low...40s
Monday and 50s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will have 30s
tonight...trending downward to the 20s for Mon/Tues nights.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Chances for precipitation for this part of the forecast are looking
better next weekend.

The upper level short wave ridge will slide across the forecast area
midweek.  Behind the ridge models disagree regarding how strong the
next upper level trough will be.  The GFS has been fairly consistent
with its depiction for the last four model runs, keeping the trough
over Southern Canada.  The ECMWF has not been consistent at all,
varying from a closed low to an open wave.  The GEFS members all
resemble the GFS, so based on that have more confidence in the
further north track shown by the GFS.  The GFS track would be more
favorable for bringing precipitation through than the ECMWF, which
until the latest run had routed the precipitation to the south.  The
latest ECMWF is looking more like the GFS, which further adds
confidence to the GFS solution.  Assuming the GFS is the more
correct of the two, the best chance for precipitation will be
Saturday ahead of the upper level short wave trough.

Breezy winds Friday through Sunday will cause concern for hazardous
fire weather conditions, mainly south of I-70.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Potent upper low will bring a variety of weather to the terminals
beginning later this afternoon and through tomorrow. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop by mid to late
afternoon and increase in coverage this evening. As colder air
filters in on the backside of the system tonight, rain may change
to or mix with snow. Convection may turn to rain to snow faster
and may result in locally heavy brief bursts of snow. Northerly
winds gusting to 30-35 kts may produce areas of blowing snow
overnight and into Monday morning.


Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Critical fire weather conditions will develop over Cheyenne CO
and Greeley KS this afternoon. Expecting winds gusting up to 35
mph at interact with humidity readings near 15 percent.

Hazardous fire weather conditions could develop from Friday right
on into next Sunday for areas along and south of Interstate 70.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for KSZ041.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ254.



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