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113
FXUS63 KGLD 222338
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
538 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...temperatures are
currently ranging from the upper 40s thru the mid 50s under a
meandering psunny/msunny sky. Winds are mainly light and variable
area-wide.

For the rest of the afternoon...variable sky cover is expected to
remain over the area w/ the region still under the influence of the
extreme western edge of the circulation of the exiting storm
system...even as surface high pressure builds over the area.

Going into tonight...expecting low level moisture over the region to
keep sky conditions at least partly cloudy. Surface ridge will
continue to push slow eastward going into Monday. By then decreasing
clouds over the region as surface ridge continues trek eastward...
but also aided by building mid level ridge cresting over the region
during the daytime hrs Monday...before shifting ESE going towards
sunset.

The result of this will have dry conditions area-wide tonight into
Monday. For temps...the region will have overnight lows ranging in
the 30s...warmest east but all areas highly dependent on expected
cloud cover and will have to be monitored. Monday high temps with
high pressure in force will allow for upper 60s to around 70F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Monday night-Tuesday night: A shortwave trough moving ashore the
Oregon coast this afternoon is expected to amplify into an upper
level low as it progresses eastward through Idaho (tonight) and
along the WY/MT border (Monday). 12Z GFS/ECMWF guidance indicate
that the upper low will weaken and assume a southeasterly course
through western SD (Mon night) and central NE/KS (Tue/Tue night).
Low-level flow over the Tri-State area will back to the southeast
and strengthen as the upper low progresses into western SD Monday
evening into Monday night. Moisture return will be poor in quality
and short in duration, however, as a cooler/drier airmass surges
into the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage Tuesday
morning. Upper level forcing will remain well N/NW of the Tri-
State area Monday night/Tuesday morning (when low-level moisture
will be greatest) and, as a result, precipitation may be limited
to a brief period of sprinkles assoc/w transient low-level
convergence and frontogenesis attendant the cold front progressing
southeast through northwest KS. Upper forcing will strengthen
during the day Tue as the upper low tracks into northwest/north-
central Nebraska but will be poorly juxtaposed with low-level
moisture over the Tri-State area. Additionally, forcing will be
greatest over central and eastern portions of NE/KS (based on the
12Z GFS/ECMWF upper low track). With the above in mind,
precipitation may be limited to sprinkles or brief/light showers
Monday night. On Tuesday afternoon and evening, chances for rain
(showers) will be greatest in northeast portions of the forecast
area (McCook-Norton-Hill City).

Wednesday-Sunday: NW flow aloft will prevail mid/late week in the
wake of the aforementioned upper low. A progressive shortwave
passage will be possible on Thu. Measurable precipitation is
extremely unlikely in the Tri-State area given little/no moisture
return and the brief period of DPVA attendant such a wave. Expect
dry conditions to persist through the end of the week and the
upcoming weekend as a ridge builds atop the Rockies and High
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at GLD and MCK through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds this evening will turn southerly
overnight and increase through the afternoon on Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...LOCKHART