


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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781 FXUS63 KGLD 280735 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 135 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours today. Dry lightning may lead to an increased fire risk on Saturday. - Potentially severe storms are expected on Sunday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. - Storm chances continue into the next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Current observations show showers and storms lingering in Northwestern Kansas. They showers and storms could continue until near sunrise with elevated instability and moisture lingering in the area. Storms have generally been sub-severe with hail up to half inch in size and wind gusts generally around or below 50 mph. Heavy rain has also been occurring with these showers. As we near sunrise, most of the outflow boundaries and elevated instability should be exiting the area and allowing it all to come to an end. For the daytime hours, a slightly warmer day is forecast as we get some slight ridging in the upper flow. Temperatures are forecast to warm to around 100 degrees underneath mostly sunny skies. Winds are forecast to remain from the south around 10 to 15 mph. Winds could begin to gust to 20-30 mph as the lower levels mix out during the afternoon hours. During the evening and overnight hours, there is another chance for showers and storms, albeit a smaller chance. With the ridging that is forecast to occur during the day, upper subsidence is forecast to be over the area. A shortwave is still expected to fire up storms in East-Central Colorado and move it towards the area. However, a more stable environment is forecast which should cause the storms to fall apart as they try advancing through the area. The one thing that could be worth watching is if a more organized line forms in Nebraska. If a line forms and the outflow pushes south like some guidance is suggesting, there could be another round of storms after midnight for the eastern half of the area. Severe storms are possible, but would be more likely in the form of wind gusts up to 70 mph with the second round (if it moves through). Otherwise, skies should slowly clear with lows generally in the 60s again. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A weak shortwave ridge axis will lead to hotter and drier conditions on Saturday across the area with daytime highs running a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 90s. Although moisture will be very limited on Saturday, enough instability should be in place to support isolated weak thunderstorm activity along the Kansas/Colorado border. These storms will not have much rainfall associated with them, but they will have the potential to produce some dry lightning strikes. With winds gusting over 25 mph from the south in the afternoon hours, there could be some increased fire concerns due to the dry lightning strike threat. This threat will quickly end after sunset as temperatures start to cool off and the weak storms come to an end. The overall pattern across the country will become more amplified on Sunday with a strong longwave ridge building over the western third of the nation. A fairly decent front will slide through the area on Sunday, and this will bring another round of thunderstorms back to the area. Thunderstorm coverage will be highest this day due to the increased forcing along the front, and a few of the storms will likely turn severe with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threat. Temperatures will be near average in Nebraska and Colorado, but should still be in the mid 90s south of I-70 as the front is not expected to move through this portion of the forecast area until the evening hours. Deep layer northwest flow aloft and a north to northeast flow in the low levels on Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures closer to average in the mid to upper 80s during the day and the upper 50s and lower 60s at night. The easterly flow could allow for some moisture pooling in place, but a dry line will also develop each day in eastern Colorado. Just enough forcing should be in place along the dry line to induce some isolated storms in the late afternoon and early evening hours on both Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday should be the driest day of the week as deep layer ridging passes directly over the region. This will allow for ample subsidence and a strong capping inversion aloft, and this should limit convective potential across the area. At most, a very isolated and short-lived shower or storm could pop up along the dry line in Colorado during the late afternoon hours. Temperatures will also begin to warm beneath the ridge with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s. The ridging will being to push to the east on Thursday and Friday. A southwesterly flow regime will take hold aloft and winds in the low levels will shift back to the south and southeast. Weak lee troughing will support a stronger dry line forming each day, and this will lead to better convective coverage over the western third of the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening hours each day. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average each day, but nothing too extreme for this time of year with readings generally remaining in the low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast for most of the period. Storms are moving southeast, away from the terminal which should end the threat for the first 12 hours. Skies are forecast to clear by 15Z with winds remaining below 10 kts. After 18Z, winds should pick up to 10-15 kts while remaining roughly from the south. Between 22-04Z, there is a chance for a thunderstorm or two to move over the terminal. The storms would move in from the west. For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the terminal. There could be a stray shower until 09Z, but chances remain below 10%. Winds should remain from the south around 10kts. Skies are forecast to clear by 15Z with winds remaining from the south. They could increase to around 15 kts at 18Z. As far as storms are concerned for tomorrow, chances are only around 10-15%, with most guidance suggesting any storms trying to advance east will fall apart. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...KAK