Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Today-tonight...southeast winds slowly increase through the day and
could approach breezy category along and west of the CO/KS border
ahead of the approaching upper trough and associated cold front.
850mb temperatures warm 6F in the east to 10-13F across the rest of
the area supporting highs in the mid 60s to 70 degrees. For this
evening latest trends are to slow the cold fronts arrival with the
strongest winds from Yuma to Flagler and points west by
midnight...gusts in the 30 mph range possible. From midnight through
sunrise Tuesday morning the front is expected to reach a line from
McCook to Colby and Tribune with gusty north winds. Regarding
precipitation chances, there remains a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms slowly moving southeast across the northwest
half of the area through midnight as an upper level disturbance
ahead of the main upper trough moves in from the west. Weak
instability and increasing upper jet divergence suggest at least an
isolated thunder mention. After midnight areal coverage of showers
expands across the remaining forecast area.  Low temperatures look
to range from the mid 30s west to low/possibly mid 40s east.

Tuesday-Tuesday chance for additional precipitation is
during the morning hours before decreasing from northwest to
southeast in the afternoon as the center of the upper trough moves
into central Nebraska with mid level dry slot moving into the
area from the northwest. Slim chances for additional moisture
during the night but wont fight the slight chance pops across the
east. Still looking for breezy to windy northwest winds during the
day and afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid 40s west to low
50s east. Am concerned that both NAM/GFS models both have
considerable cloudiness across the area for much of the day and
that the NAM cooler temperatures might verify better. If so,
adjustments will need to be made to both hourly temperatures and
possibly precipitation type. Winds slowly decrease during the
night with low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 20s in
far eastern Colorado and low to mid 30s along and east of the
CO/KS border.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...will have some wraparound moisture in
the 850-700mb layer in the morning before slowly decreasing during
the afternoon eventually resulting in a sunny to mostly sunny sky.
Afternoon temperatures look to peak int he upper 50s to low 60s with
low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

In the start of the extended period the models are showing a tail
end of an upper level trough moving across the Central High Plains.
The models are also showing a surface front in relationship with
this trough.  At this time, no measurable precipitation is
anticipated as there appears to be little to no moisture associated
with this system.

After Thursday, an upper level ridge will build over the Rockies and
High Plains and produce dry conditions for the region through the
end of the week and well into the weekend.

Late Saturday night and Sunday the models are showing an upper level
shortwave moving into the region that could produce some rainshowers
towards the end of the period.

Afternoon high temperatures will start out reaching the lower 60s on
Thursday and climb into the middle 70s by the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions through 08z with ifr/vlifr conditions from
09z-12z. A light south wind at taf issuance will increase into the
12-15kt range with higher gusts from 17z-00z ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds currently forecast to shift to the
northwest under 10kts around 08z with some light rain showers
possible and near mvfr cigs as low levels saturate behind the
front. From 09z-12z cigs expected to fall into the ifr/vlifr
category with light to possibly moderate rainfall and reduced
visibilities, winds from the northwest gusting around 20kts.

KMCK, vfr conditions through 07z with winds becoming south to
southeast under 10kts. After 08z winds become light from the west
then northwest as a cold front approaches. Cigs will lower to
ifr/vlifr category behind the front with light to moderate rain
and reduced visibilities expected.




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