Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGLD 210940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
340 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018 upper level low pressure area over southeast
Colorado early this morning is forecast to slowly move
east/northeast into the forecast area through the day before moving
southeast and away from the area this evening through overnight.
Light rainfall is expected this morning before drier air aloft
moves in reducing precipitation chances through the day. Across
parts of far eastern Colorado surface temperatures are cold enough
for light snow to fall and that to will continue this morning
before decreasing through the day while also slowly warming enough
to change over to light rain. Some light accumulation possible,
mainly in the Flagler area. High temperatures should only reach
the low to mid 40s with an east to northeast wind in the 5 to 15
mph range. For tonight will have to deal with fog as moist ground
cover from our recent rain and light winds create a favorable
environment. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 in far
eastern Colorado with low to mid 30s east of the CO/KS border.

Sunday-Sunday night...shortwave ridging develops over the area in
between Saturday nights departing storm system and an upper trough
approaching from the northwest. Enough moisture exists in the 850-
700mb layer to produce some fair weather cumulus clouds during the
day as afternoon temperatures warm into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Winds generally from the east around 10 mph. Will have to monitor
threat for fog Sunday night generally along and east of the CO/KS
border where light south winds combine with increasing boundary
layer moisture. Low temperatures in the low to upper 30s.

Monday-Monday night...southeast winds increase through the day,
strongest along and west of the CO/KS border where gusts in the 25-
30 mph range possible ahead of approaching upper trough and cold
front. 850mb temperatures warm about 8F to 10F across the area
supporting highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Precipitation
chances increase through the night as moisture increases ahead of
the upper trough and behind the cold front. Still have some timing
issues with the frontal passage and right now precipitation type
appears to be mainly rain. Low temperatures look to range from the
mid 30s west to low 40s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

At the start of the extended period the region will be under the
influence of an upper level low, and its associated cold front,
coming off the northern Rockies and into the High Plains. This
system will produce areas of rainshowers across our local area. A
brief period of upper level ridging will influence the region on
Wednesday with dry conditions.  On Thursday, the models are showing
a system that is similar to the system that is anticipated to move
through the region on Tuesday.  This second system will also produce
areas of rainshowers.

For the rest of the extended, high pressure looks to build over the
western U.S. and influence the area with dry conditions and highs
reaching the lower 70s by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

KGLD and KMCK, mvfr to vlifr conditions expected through the
period as abundant low level moisture/clouds remain across the
area. Some light rain possible through 17z or so before decreasing
quickly for the rest of the period. Will have to monitor the
threat for fog after midnight tonight. Winds generally from the
northeast under 10kts through 03z then light and variable through




AVIATION...99 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.