Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...the area is looking at
clear skies with temperatures currently in a wide range from the
upper 50s in spots to the upper 60s to lower 70s in the east.
Winds are mainly WSW around 5-10 mph.

For today...another hot day is on tap for the CWA with amplified
H5/H7 ridge cresting over the Central Plains by midday shifting
east going into the afternoon hrs. This will bring the area into
SW flow aloft. At the surface a lee-side trough sets up over the
Front Range w/ high pressure to the east. This will provide a
strong southerly gradient for the afternoon. The increase in WAA
from this...combined with the SW flow aloft...and 850 temps
around +27c to +32c is going to give the region daytime highs in
the mid to upper 90s(15-20 degrees above normal).

Going into tonight...synoptic set up remains the same with lee-
side trough over the Front Range allowing for a southerly flow
over the area. This will allow for overnight lows in the lower to
mid 60s(10-15 degrees above normal).

The next 48-hr period...Sunday thru Monday night...will allow for
the main focus to shift from hot 90-degree temps to the chance
for severe wx.

An upper low will have shifted into the Rockies by
Sunday...lifting slowly NNE going into the beginning of next
week. The lee-side trough will slowly move in tandem with the
upper low during this the Front Range and work slowly
NNE into the Plains region.

Instability increases ahead of the surface trough by Sunday
afternoon enhanced by shortwave energy ahead of the upper low. This
will allow for TRW formation that will carry on into the evening
hrs. With strong BL cape values...0-3km Helicity 100-200...and
other enhanced instability parameters...expecting severe storms to
occur. Temps on Sunday will reach into the mid 80s to lower 90s
in parts...tempered only by expected increase in cloud cover from
storm development. Southerly flow will remain over the region
providing moist unstable air with dewpts in the 50s to lower 60s.
The same conditions will exist for the Monday afternoon/evening
timeframe as well.

The result of the severe potential has allowed for the SPC to put
a 50/50 split over the CWA for Slight/Marginal Risks of severe wx
for Sunday. On Monday...the entire CWA is under a Slight Risk.
Damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph and hail of an inch or two or
larger is possible. Shear potential both days has even brought
out the chance for an isolated tornado as well. Right now monday
looks to be the worst day. PW values of 1.00" to 1.50" could pose
a flash flooding threat due to heavy rain potential.

Have put in enhanced wording into the forecast because of the
severe wx potential.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

Another disturbance will move over the area on Wednesday bringing
more showers and storms to the Tri-State area. Morning lows will
range in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Highs will only get in the mid

Another upper level short wave trough will move through on
Thursday  and Friday. Highs will sit in the low to mid 90s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday is expected to be quiet.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, south
winds of 19 to 23 knots with gusts of 27 to 32 knots will continue
through the night. From 05z to 14z low level wind shear will be in

For Kmck, south winds near 15 knots will start gusting to near 23
knots around 21z and continue through 05z. From 05z to the end of
the period, the winds will be south to southeast at 8 to 12 knots.
Low level wind shear will occur from 05z to 14z.




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