Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 201045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Dry wx with a gradual warning trend.

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air remains centered over the heart of the US early this
morning...resulting in clear skies and dry wx thru the entire
Mississippi Valley...most of the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley.
Temps are slowly dropping out of the 30s and into the 20s at this
hour...on their way down to overnight lows in the upper teens and
lower 20s. Skies remain clear and winds are stark contrast
to this time last week.

As we head into today and tonight...little will change as the strong
surface high center slides overhead. Skies will remain clear over
the next 24 hours at least...with only some thin cirrus drifting
overhead. Our gradual warming trend will continue today with
afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 40s in the NW half of
our CWA to the low to mid 50s in the SE half. Temps will drop back
into the 20s tonight thanks to clear skies and calm winds.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...True spring-like weather this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, although will be monitoring
rising river levels through the weekend due to snow melt runoff.

Pattern Forecast: Split flow aloft across the western tier of the
CONUS is expected to be evident at the start of the forecast period
Saturday with one area of low pressure meandering across the
central/southern plains and another across Alberta/Saskatchewan.
Both systems are expected to remain well south/north, respectively,
of northern Michigan as surface high pressure dominates our weather
locally through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Minimal aside from potential
fog issues and rising rivers due to melting snow runoff.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated across northern
Michigan through the upcoming weekend as aforementioned surface high
pressure sits atop the region. A return to near-normal high
temperatures is expected both Saturday and Sunday with highs topping
out in the upper 40s nearest the lakeshores to the low-upper 50s
inland (normals for the third week of April range from 51 at ANJ to
56 at TVC/HTL).

A good radiational cooling setup Saturday night into Sunday morning
with light winds/clear skies, combined with snow-covered ground, may
lend itself to fog potential across a bulk of the area. However, the
biggest concern through the weekend continued to be snow melt runoff
and resultant rises in area rivers. As was previously mentioned, the
Rifle River near Sterling is forecast to continue a slow rise above
flood stage during the day Sunday while the Manistee River near
Sherman is forecast to fall half a foot or so short of minor flood
stage. Either way, the potential will need to be monitored
through the weekend into next week.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal outside of rising river

Generally quiet weather is expected to prevail throughout much of
the extended forecast period with the exception lying around the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as a quick moving wave slides across
the central plains, perhaps interacting with the aforementioned
southern wave slowly moving across the southern tier of the CONUS
this weekend. As a result, mainly low precip (rain) chances return
to the forecast later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Otherwise, the primary concern continues to revolve around rising
river levels into next week, which would be exacerbated by any
liquid precipitation mentioned above.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan
TAF sites as high pressure slides over our state. Light/variable
winds will become N/NW AOB 10 kts by midday...and will then become
light/calm after sunset.


Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru the
weekend as high pressure remains in charge of the wx across the
Great Lakes region. Dry wx and mainly clear skies are expected...
with our gradual warming trend continuing thru the weekend and into
next week.




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