Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 182318
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
718 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Increasing rain chances late tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure remains centered NE
of the Great Lakes region over Quebec this afternoon. Skies are
mainly sunny across our entire CWA attm...with rather breezy
conditions as well with E/SE winds gusting to 15 to 25 kts. Cool air
streaming off of Lake Huron has held temps in the 50s across Eastern
Upper and NE Lower Michigan...while temps have warmed into the mid
to upper 70s in our SW CWA around TVC and MBL thanks to downslope
flow.

Our persistently dry wx pattern will begin to change as we head into
tonight. Mid/high clouds will increase from south to north across
our CWA this evening as low pressure begins to lift northward out of
the Mississippi Valley. Sufficiently deep moisture for precip
production will begin to arrive across southern sections of our CWA
by around midnight...and will then continue to spread northward thru
most of our CWA during the overnight hours. Little to no instability
to work with suggests little to no chance of thunder...so will
certainly leave mention of this out of tonight`s forecast. Highest
POPs will be across our far southern CWA where deepest moisture will
arrive. Increasing clouds and weak WAA will limit our diurnal temp
swing...with overnight lows only falling into the upper 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Rain chances Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: An area of weak low pressure over the Ohio River
Valley will track into the southern Great Lakes region Saturday.
This system along with accompanying moisture (PWATS of nearly 1.50")
and lift will produce rain showers Saturday. Models have all been on
board with increasing QPF a bit, with most locations east of a line
from Presque Isle to Cadillac receiving the most...around a quarter
of an inch. Rain showers will gradually diminish throughout Saturday
evening/night as deeper moisture and synoptic forcing moves to the
east, while clouds will take a bit longer to diminish with some
shallower moisture lingering overhead. These clouds will diminish
through Sunday morning as high pressure and much drier air build
over the forecast area. Said high pressure will provide
precipitation free weather through at least Sunday night. Models
hint at a another weak area of low pressure over the Ohio River
Valley Monday possibly producing some rain showers over the southern
parts of the forecast area (mainly south of M-55), although not too
confident as surface high pressure will still be over northern lower
with drier air pushing southward. Have slight chance pops for those
portions for now. Temperatures will moderate a bit each day, with
highs in the low to mid 60s Saturday and warming to around 70 by
Monday. Lows will generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Winds
will remain on the light side through the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Models are hinting at the possibility of a weak short wave producing
some rain showers through Tuesday afternoon. High pressure once
again builds over the Great Lakes region producing another quiet
stretch of weather through the remainder of the work week. Highs
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday and then moderate to
near 80 on Friday (eastern upper only in the upper 60s to low 70s).
Lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

High pressure over eastern Canada and fairly dry air across
northern Michigan will maintain VFR conditions across the region
through most of tonight. But, low pressure moving into the Ohio
Valley this evening, along with a deep plume or moisture
stretching into the Atlantic, will spread showers up into northern
Michigan starting late tonight and persisting through Saturday.
Expect thickening and lower CIGS through tonight with conditions
finally turning MVFR by Saturday morning as bulk of showers
arrive. Risk for IFR CIGS at times on Saturday, but I don`t think
that will be the rule.

Winds will remain on the gustier side for the next few hours but
settle down thereafter. However, strong flow off the surface may
once again lead to marginal LLWS conditions at the terminal sites
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria for our
nearshore areas north of Grand Traverse Bay and around and north
of Thunder Bay into the evening hours. Rain chances will increase
late tonight into Saturday as low pressure lifts northward into
the Great Lakes region.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ020-021-
     025>027-031>033.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MR



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