Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 181717
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
117 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Strong high pressure remains centered NE of the Great Lakes region
over Quebec late this morning. With the exception of some high
thin cirrus across our CWA...skies are mainly sunny as temps warm
thru the 50s and 60s. E/SE winds are gusting to 15 to 25 kts attm...
and will continue to do so thru the afternoon and into early
evening. Skies will remain mostly sunny across Northern Lower
Michigan...with a few additional mid clouds across Eastern Upper
Michigan this afternoon. High temps will only warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s across Eastern Upper Michigan and along the
Lake Huron shoreline in NE Lower Michigan thanks to cool easterly
flow off of Lake Huron. Central Lower and NW Lower Michigan will
warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s thanks in part to downslope
flow.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...More fire weather concerns today/Increasing rain threat tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: High fire danger today especially
northwest Lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Split flow pattern continues to
predominate across the CONUS at week`s end...with southern branch
flow across much of the CONUS and stronger northern branch flow over
Canada anchored by a strong upper low (+NAO) over eastern Canada.
Southern branch flow has several disturbances within it...a
persistent trough over the central Great Basin...a slow moving short
wave trough stretching from Missouri to Mississippi...and another
along the Florida Gulf Coast.  Midnight surface analysis shows high
pressure sprawled out across Canada from Alberta eastward...with a
1031mb center over northwest Quebec.  Easterly boundary layer flow
around this high across Michigan/Wisconsin.  Wavy frontal boundary
extends from the northern Rockies east across South Dakota/southern
Minnesota and into Illinois/Indiana/Ohio.  Mostly just Ci spreading
across Lower Michigan from the southwest...with some Ac across
central Upper.

Broadly anticyclonic flow aloft will prevail across Michigan in the
near term...disturbances over the Great Basin and middle/lower
Mississippi Valley will be shifting east for the weekend along with
a digging northern branch short wave trough that will reach
Manitoba/northwest Ontario by Saturday morning.  Quebec surface high
will be the dominant driver in continuing to push easterly low level
flow into the state through tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Very High fire danger ratings will
continue to keep fire weather concerns at the forefront.
Temperatures not expected to be too much different than yesterday...
but dew points will be lower especially early on with a number of
locales starting out with dew points in the 20s. Winds will also be
gusty from the southeast today as well (20-25mph range)...and think
we may push Red Flag warning criteria for areas along/west of US-131
this afternoon where temperatures in the lower-mid 70s expected.  So
will likely issue one for Antrim/Kalkaska/ Missaukee counties and
west.  Cloud cover today should be mostly thin Ci across northern
Lower...and Ac/castellanus across eastern Upper and the Straits
region.

Deeper moisture from the Ohio Valley begins to edge northward across
the Lower Peninsula tonight...a surge of 1.50+" precipitable water
along with increasing isentropic ascent.  This is expected to push
an area of rain (some embedded elevated convection?) into northern
Lower possibly by late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Chance of rain Saturday for parts of northern lower...

High Impact Weather Potential: After a possible reprive Saturday,
conditions begin to dry out again Sunday. Warming temperatures
through the week could continue the elevated fire danger.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: As high pressure continues to exit through
Quebec Saturday, a shortwave will be pushing up through the Ohio
Valley. This currently looks to pass in the vicinity of SE MI,
though some uncertainty exists. This will pass through the area
rather quickly Saturday, with another broad area of high pressure
starting to build into the region by Sunday. Another low pressure
system is progged to develop in the lee of the Rockies Sunday, that
could bring another chance for showers early in the week, especially
south of M-72.

Primary Forecast Concerns: The main concern is with the rain chances
Saturday. American guidance is a bit stronger with upper level
development, bringing the path of the surface low through the
Thumb rather than Lake Erie. This is producing QPF further west, and
over a greater area, than both Canadian and European guidance. QG
forcing across multiple models is showing some ascent over the area
Saturday; however, so we could see precip a bit west of where the
QPF is currently being progged. That said, the total amounts do not
look overly impressive. While the system will have plenty of Gulf
moisture to advect northward with it, forcing just isn`t that great.
Amounts will likely be less than 0.25", with amounts generally
decreasing as you head west from Lake Huron. Spots on the western
side may see less than 0.10".

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

As mentioned above, high pressure will begin building into the area
Sunday and continue through the week. A system moving out of the lee
of the Rockies could bring a shot of some showers early in the week,
but things look to remain quiet after that. Temperatures will
continue to warm throughout the week, going from near normal to
start the week to nearly 10 degrees above normal by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Rain chances will increase from south to north across our area
overnight into Saturday as low pressure lifts northward out of the
Mid Mississippi Valley into Michigan. In the meantime...mid/high
clouds will increase and thicken this afternoon and evening ahead
of this system. East winds will continue to gust to 15 to 25 kts
thru this afternoon and early evening...diminishing by sunset to
10 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

East to southeast winds today will be on the gusty side...may be
enough to require Small Craft Advisories especially with winds
funneling through the Straits region. Winds are expected to
subside Saturday morning as gradient relaxes...with winds
eventually swinging around to a more northerly component Saturday
night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ020-021-
     025>027-031>033.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB



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