Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
642 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Slowly turning the corner toward spring...

Low pressure is crossing VA. Associated precip never got this far
north, and is now peeling out to s. High pressure extends from
the central and northern plains on up to Hudson Bay, and will
build into the western lakes by late tonight. Northerly winds
ahead of the high will be gusty today, helping bring drier air to
the region (with neutral temperature advection). Cloud/temp trends
are the main concerns.

Not too much in the way of cloud cover out there now; some cirrus
near/south of M-32, and some patchy high-based stratocu in ne lower
MI. Our low-level airmass is moist enough (dew points in the 20s in
northern lower) to allow for a brief flare-up of cu/stratocu after
sunrise. However, deeply dry air is moving in from the north (PWATs
near 0.15), and we will mix that moisture/cloud deck out in short
order (by midday or early afternoon). Mostly sunny skies by 2 pm,
lasting thru the rest of the day. Mostly clear skies will then
persist tonight.

Pressure gradient will slowly relax tonight, allowing some areas to
decouple overnight. Have tweaked min temps down a bit in response.
Think the airmass is too dry for much in the way of fog.

Max temps upper 30s to around 40f. Min temps around 20f to the mid


.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Dry Weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...River flooding may be an issue in
the coming days from the snow melt.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure at the sfc slowly moves
into the Upper Great Lakes with the 500 mb ridge to the west. Fairly
dry air at 850 mb and in the 700-500 mb layer will clear out most of
the sky for both days. Although there could be some good cu
development as suggested by the GFS, and less by the SREF. So Mostly
sunny with temperatures getting into the upper 40s Friday and the
mid to upper 50s Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...with the snow piled up and the sfc
temperatures beginning to warm and melt the snow, the concern is
that some of the area rivers could be an issue. Based on the
hydrographs from the RFC it looks like one river could have issues
over the weekend and into early next week. The rest of the rivers
remain below flood stage.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Precipitation Free Weather (well mostly) and Moderating

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)...The sfc high and 500 mb ridge
stay over the forecast area, and the Upper Great Lakes in general
through Monday night. So dry weather and moderating temperatures
back to normal highs by Monday are likely. Temperatures will make a
run at 70 on Tuesday as well. There could be some rain showers as
the models bring a cold front into the forecast area Tuesday night.
The temperatures and possible rain Tuesday night could cause issues
on the area rivers, although only one river is showing possible
issues at this point. Will continue to monitor the situation.
Temperatures cool overnight, changing the rain to a mix, or all snow
in the UP. The system begins to move out of the region by Wednesday
morning so will have decreasing chances for precipitation by
Wednesday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018


Quiet wx settling in. Will be a brief flare-up of stratocu
mid/late morning, but any cigs should be VFR, and will mix back
out to mostly sunny skies by early afternoon. Mostly clear into

Gusty northerly winds today, gradually becoming lighter tonight.


Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Gusty northerly winds today will produce advisory conditions
today, ahead of high pressure in the plains. Winds/waves will
diminish tonight, as the high moves to the western Great Lakes.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.


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