Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191738
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
138 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Large area of light to moderate rain continues to rotate northeast
across the area this morning as interaction between southern and
northern stream waves center overhead. Primary moisture plume
responsible for the rain steadily exits off to the northeast later
this morning and afternoon, a fact made well evident by aggressive
drying occurring off to our southwest. Expect rains to end in the
process, with most areas likely drying out by this evening. Clouds
will be much more stubborn to yield, with low overcast extending
well back into northern Illinois and central Wisconsin. More low
clouds and even some drizzle expected tonight as northern wave
pushes through the region. Clouds will limit the diurnal
temperature response quite a bit, but still looking at afternoon
temperatures reaching well into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A mid level cutoff low and associated sfc reflection continues to
swirl around the intersection of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers
early this morning. Southerly flow in the low to mid levels ahead of
shortwave troughing and another sfc low in MN, was allowing for the
northward advection of deeper moisture (PWATS 1.50-1.75") into
Michigan. Skies have clouded up, and light rains were finally able
to penetrate the still moistening low levels of the atmosphere
around the GTV Bay region, and along the M-55 corridor. Temperatures
were generally in the upper 40s to lower half of the 50s. Forcing
was limited to mainly WAA in nrn Michigan, whereas stronger forcing
due to DPVA and right entrance region dynamics was seen across nrn
MN, where additional showers and even some thunderstorms were
occurring.

The shortwave troughing in MN works across the nrn Great Lakes
through tonight, and will help pull the sfc low and deeper moisture
from the Ohio valley further northward into our neck of the woods.
This phasing will result in rain showers gradually overspreading the
CWA, bringing relief to the recent dry conditions. The deeper
moisture in the warm/moist advection exits by this evening, and rain
showers will come to an end. The nrn stream wave will still be
crossing the nrn Great Lakes tonight, and we will be waiting on the
arrival of it`s associated cold front. While the deeper moisture and
rains will have exited, the low levels remain rather saturated until
much drier air moves back in for the second half of the weekend.
Fcst soundings suggest maybe some drizzle could be in the offing
later tonight with the front. This is most likely just going to be
possible in the higher terrain if it even occurs.

Much of the moisture early on will get eaten up as saturation
occurs, and the strongest forcing misses us to the north. That said
however, most areas will wind up getting around a quarter of an inch
liquid just due to the warm/moist advection in the high PWAT air
mass. The higher amounts are likely to reside in NE lower, closer to
the deepest moisture. Maybe some higher amounts in eastern upper as
well, near the stronger forcing. Instability is very limited and no
thunder is expected at this time.

Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s in cloudy skies. Lows tonight
ranging from the upper 30s in eastern upper to the upper 40s closer
to Saginaw Bay. No frost expectations at this time either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...High pressure taking control...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure will be over the Great
Lakes through most of the week. It will be in the form of a couple
of different pressure centers, but they will keep the region under
the influence of high pressure for the week. A weak area of high
pressure is moving through the Ohio Valley early in the week, but
the track remains uncertain. The overall trend has been moving this
system south, and could very easily pass to our south with little to
no influence on us.

Primary Forecast Concerns: The first question is with precip chances
early in the week. Some solutions are still far enough north with
the low to bring some showers to the area, but I think we will
continue to see those solutions drift south and likely remain dry
all week. Temperatures Sunday will be near normal, but will continue
to warm through the week. Guidance dewpoints look a bit high
compared to model soundings, adjusted down a good bit for Sunday and
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...Warming through the week...

With high pressure remaining overhead, the weather will continue to
be warm and dry. Continuing the warming trend beginning Sunday, many
areas in northern lower could be into the 80s by the end of the
week. Winds will remain on the light side, but may need to keep an
eye on RH values, especially later in the week. There are signs of
another system that could bring some rain chances as we head into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Showers and attendant IFR producing cigs and vis restrictions
should scour out of the area shortly. Secondary surge of moisture
arrives quickly early this evening, but trends support mostly MVFR
cigs with perhaps a few no-vis restricting sprinkles. Skies
expected to clear from north to south later tonight into Sunday
morning. Winds become northwest to north overnight into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Low pressure and rain showers will cross the region today, which
will be followed by a cold front tonight. A loose pressure gradient
will tighten up a bit behind the front and may bring some low end
advisory winds to some of the nearshore waters. Confidence isn`t too
great with this idea, and will not issue any headlines attm. High
pressure and light winds then settle back in for Sunday into the
first part of the upcoming work week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...SMD



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