866
FXUS63 KIWX 070710
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
310 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued very warm and humid through the rest of this week with
  highs in the 80s.

- Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms after Tuesday.
  Severe storms are not expected.

- The best chances for storms are Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Storms from last night have nearly completely dissipated. The
storms had formed in the area of a weak upper level disturbance
in the vicinity of a somewhat diffuse cold front. The front has
been moving slowly south and will continue to drift south today.
Thunderstorms are possible ahead of south-moving front today -
basically east and south of Fort Wayne. Severe storms are not
expected but locally heavy rainfall is possible. Rainfall rates
last night up to 3"/hr were observed with the heaviest rainfall
reports around 2". These rainfall rates and amounts are
possible again today as an axis of very high precipitable water
around 2.0 resides ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the
front. The airmass behind the front was slightly cooler over
northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan.

As far as the rest of the week, an upper level ridge will remain
anchored over the southwest CONUS. Energy in the form of
disturbances and short wave trofs coming zonally from the west
and also from the northwest will combine to keep an active
pattern over the Upper Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms will be
possible each day after Tuesday. The airmass will slowly modify
and allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s by
Friday. Corresponding maximum heat indices Friday should reach
the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Through the overnight period Cigs will start out IFR and will
see some slight improvement after 15z Mon for both sites to MVFR
category Cigs with the cool front moving through the area. A few
scattered light showers will be possible over the next several
hours but will come to an end as the front moves further south
and eastward. Winds have shifted to more north to northwesterly
in the wake of the cool frontal boundary passage and will
become more northerly and have become light and should remain so
through the remainder of the TAF period. For KSBN, VFR
conditions should return after about 22z Mon and around 04z Tue
for KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen