Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
136 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great
Lakes this morning. This trough moves into New England tonight.
Overall, it looks pretty quiet. Pcpn across the far south will move
out early this morning and then another frontal zone moves into the
north late tonight and slight chance pops could sneak into the far
north late tonight. Overall, no big changes to the going forecast
were made.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 504 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

Attention remains on fire concerns due to prolonged dry spell and
above normal temperatures, which continue through Wed and to a
lesser extent through Fri. Some precip is possible this weekend, but
details are still be sorted.

More specifically, Wed will be quite warm with highs mainly in the
70s and 80s. Temps will be cooling off near Lake Superior in the
late morning through evening behind a cold front, mainly cooling by
turning the winds off the lake. Winds will mainly be around 10-
15mph, shifting from SW early to N through the day. Minimum RH
values over the interior will be 25-35%. Not seeing critical fire
conditions due to light winds, but otherwise it would be a critical
day. There is some potential for rain showers along the front as it
moves past the WI border in the afternoon and evening, but coverage
and potential in general is uncertain. Kept slight chance PoPs given
that most models are dry and the airmass remains quite dry.

A bit cooler Thu with highs in the 60s and 70s, and more moist with
minimum RH values of 35-45%. Winds continue to be light. Slight
chances for rain remain in the forecast over western Upper MI.

Friday will be another warm day with inland highs from near 70 to
around 80, minimum RH values of 27-37%, and light winds.

Greater rain potential exists Sat and Sat night as a shortwave
drives a cold front across the region, but uncertainty remains in
the coverage and amount of rain. Widespread significant
precipitation is not guaranteed. Beyond that, it looks like we go
back to dry high pressure into the middle of next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will veer
westerly tomorrow and become gusty, especially across the west half
of Upper Michigan.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 240 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

Strongest winds this forecast period look to be late tonight into
Wed morning out of the southwest in the 20-25 knot range. Otherwise,
no gales seen this forecast period.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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