Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 111712

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 856 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

Mesoscale snow banding has developed across north central to
northeastern Missouri early Sunday morning. Periods of moderate
snowfall have been observed, which is leading to accumulating
snowfall on roadways, despite above freezing surface/road temps.
This will make for hazardous travel conditions through the
remainder of Sunday morning. Conditions should improve by the late
morning as precip clears to the southeast and as surface temps
rise through the afternoon hours.


Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

Main challenge for today will be potential snow totals across
northeast MO as a compact shortwave trough dives quickly to the
southeast this morning into the afternoon. Lift and upper-level
support will definitely not be a limiting factor, but warm ground
and air temperatures will make it difficult for snow to
accumulate. Precipitation type is currently transitioning from
rain to snow at an air temperature of around 35-36 across
southeast IA, and would expect the same as the entire profile very
gradually cools as the system pushes southeast. QPF amounts will
reach a quarter inch or more in the far northeast corner of the
forecast area, but low snow ratios and even lower potential for
accumulation should keep snow totals between 1-2" on grassy and
elevated surfaces. Will not issue an advisory as travel should not
be highly impacted, especially with road temperatures above 37-38
degrees and little potential for much cooling of those surfaces.

Patchy, light rain or snow showers are possible on the trailing
western side of the system, but will be much lighter due to
thinner saturation and very little lift except on the surface-850
hPa front. Temperatures will warm just a few degrees this
afternoon in all but far northeast MO where temperatures will
remain primarily steady through evening before beginning to fall,
meaning below normal temperatures for the entirety of the CWA.
These generally below-normal temperatures will linger through
Tuesday as northwest flow persist, but the southern position of
the upper jet should keep any additional precipitation chances
well east and south of the CWA.

Warmer temperatures are expected beginning Wednesday and
especially for Thursday through the weekend when ridging over the
western CONUS builds into the Plains. Fire weather will be a
concern as conditions warm and moisture lags a bit behind rising
temperatures, especially Thursday when winds are also expected to
increase. Low rain chances will return Friday in the form of warm-
air advection drizzle or very light rain showers, and while the
GFS shows hints of a bigger system going into Sunday, divergence
in model solutions leads to just broad chance PoPs for the weekend
that will likely decrease as the weekend draws closer in time.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

Precipitation will continue to clear to the southeast early on in
the forecast period, though MVFR ceilings will remain in place at
least through the evening as a subsidence inversion develops.
Ceiling heights overnight are a bit uncertain as they will hover
near high-end MVFR and low-end VFR. By mid-morning on Monday,
low-level stratus should begin to scatter out while surface winds
stay northwesterly.




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