Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271953
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
253 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Opportunity for light precip Thursday night and Friday, generally
20-40%, with potential for freezing rain as well. Amounts look light
(a few hundredths) for the time being.

- Potential for a stronger storm system Saturday night through
Sunday night. Moderate precipitation chances (30-60%) currently,
with mixed rain/snow as precip types.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure will slowly exit to the east through the day Thursday.
The sfc high will keep the region dry into Thursday evening. A
building ridge aloft will push warm(er) air into the region for
Thursday, though forecast highs remain 10 to 15 degrees below
normal.

Low pressure moves off the Rockies and into SD Thursday night.
Southeast winds ahead of the low will become breezy, especially
along the Coteau where gusts to 40 mph are expected. Shortwave
energy riding the ridge plus a minor increase in moisture on the
southeast flow will generate some light precipitation. Generally,
the focus of any precip should stay on the north side of the sfc low
in North Dakota. Latest WPC QPF reflects this thinking as do the
deterministic EC and GFS. NBM, though it has trended pops down,
remains on the high side of the forecast packet. Blended in
ConsShort to lower pops further. On the waa side of the low, there
is a 15 to 35 percent chance of freezing rain. Currently have 20 to
40 percent pops mainly late Thursday night. In other words, if
precip occurs in South Dakota, there`s a good chance it will fall as
rain and freeze. Any accumulations will be light, a few hundredths
at most, west of the James Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Friday with a storm
system moving east-northeast across the region. The NBM and grand
ensemble suggest a 20 to 40 percent chance of measurable pcpn,
primarily Friday morning. Pcpn chances are best along and north of
Highway 12, and into North Dakota. The first storm should push east
of the CWA between 3-6Z Saturday with mostly dry condition on
Saturday.

Another storm system should impact the region Saturday night through
Monday afternoon. Some deterministic models suggest two separate low
pressure systems this weekend, with the first one bringing light
pcpn Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a stronger one Sunday
evening through Monday. The probability of pcpn is 30-50 percent
along and north of Highway 12 throughout the event. South of Highway
12, the chance of pcpn is 50 to 60 percent with 70 percent change
along and south of the SD/NE border. Overall, this storm may produce
a broad area of light to moderate pcpn, with a rain snow mix. The
probability of seeing 4 inches is under 40 percent per the grand
ensemble, and under 50 percent using the NBM.

Beyond Monday, the rest of the period will feature dry conditions
with warmer temperatures moving into the region. High temperatures
by next Wednesday may range in the mid 40s, to the mid 50s, or near
to slightly below average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of MVFR stratus has developed along the Coteau this
afternoon, affecting KATY with improvement after 0z. With very
light winds through tonight, expect there may be some MVFR fog
development as well, though that is too difficult to pinpoint for
tafs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at most
sites through the next 24 hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise


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