


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
674 FXUS63 KABR 100530 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Enhanced/Slight risk (level 3/2 of 5) for severe storms across the region into the evening hours. Hail up to 2 inches in diameter possible over central/north central SD late this afternoon, with gusts up to 75 mph into this evening. - Heat and humidity today and Thursday (especially over central South Dakota), with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Thursday/Thursday night. Main risks are hail up to around quarter size and wind gusts of 60 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Continuing to track a line of thunderstorms of which some have been severe. This line has had the history of producing strong wind gusts between 60-70 mph with localized stronger gusts in some areas. Heavy rainfall has also been observed with one inch or more an hour rainfall rates. Good news on the front is that this line continues to progressively shift eastward with rain coming to an end relatively quickly. Severe weather threat will continue for northeast SD through the next 2-3 hours or so before this activity begins to weaken as it approaches the MN border. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Convection is beginning to fire along the surface boundary across northwest SD into southwest ND. Swath of very unstable air with MLCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/KG lies from central ND, southeast into the James River valley. Bulk shear values are around 30 knots over western SD. So, although the current storms are not developing over the most unstable air, anything that moves closer to central SD will be approaching very buoyant air. Parameters continue to support potential for large hail up to 2 inches in diameter across central SD, plus a strong wind threat up to around 75mph also over central SD eastward into the James River valley. Severe watch 498 is already in effect across central SD into the evening hours. Also for this afternoon/evening, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory as several locations were in that 100-108 heat index range, a bit higher and more expansive than what the forecast looked like this morning. Dewpoints are a bit higher than forecast in some areas, leading to the higher heat indices. Also, actual air temperatures are flirting with 100 over central SD. More potential for precipitation and perhaps strong/severe storms arrives Thursday/Thursday night. Although, the timing of the mid- level wave and associated best lift/ascent may be later in the evening, thus leaving more widespread coverage to hold off until the overnight hours. Cold front moves through the region on Friday, bringing in cooler air as 850mb temps drop into the low to mid teens C. High temperatures drop back into the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday, along with lowering dewpoints. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG An overall prevailing condition of VFR can be expected at all terminals through this forecast cycle. KATY is currently experiencing a (temporary condition) thunderstorm, but should be returning to dry VFR weather conditions by 07Z. Heavy rain and gusts to 40kts are expected at the KATY terminal until the thunderstorm departs to the east. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible by early Thursday evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...10