179
FXUS63 KABR 071752 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1252 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 50-80
  percent later this morning into the afternoon. Some storms could
  be severe and capable of producing large hail and damaging
  winds. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather
  across parts of central and northeast South Dakota.

- Additional chances for thunderstorms and the potential for severe
  weather Thursday night into Friday.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected during the 7 day forecast,
  with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when high
  temperatures could bump back up into the low to mid 90s
  throughout and west of the James River valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed and are ongoing already
at mid morning. A couple of areas to track...on the north side
along and north of the ND/SD is an area of scattered convection
and to the south across central SD around the Gettysburg/Pierre
area. Some of the stronger cells are producing locally heavy
downpours, small hail and gusty winds. Anticipate continued
development through midday with severe storms possible through the
afternoon. SPC his upgraded our severe weather outlook for today
to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) from south central SD
stretching northeast into the James Valley and points east into
far west central MN. The only area of exception is north central
sections of SD where a Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

As of 4 AM CDT, there are a few pockets of showers over north
central SD. While these showers are moving east, they tend to
dissipate before they get east of the Missouri River. However, there
could still be showers over north central SD through the early
morning.

An upper-level shortwave is forecast to move over SD and ND today,
which provides support to a cold front. This cold front looks to
arrive in north central SD around mid morning and move towards the
southeast through central and north eastern SD during the morning
into the afternoon. There is ample moisture in front of this
boundary as a tongue of moisture moves over SD this morning. Models
also show ample instability in front of this boundary and along it,
with forecast values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, though the location of
the highest values differs in the models. With abundant moisture and
instability as well as the front as a source of lift, showers and
storms will develop along the boundary. The models also vary the
location of the strongest bulk shear, with some having values of 30-
40kts in front of the boundary and others having those values behind
the boundary. If storms are able to develop and interact with these
areas of shear, they could become supercellular, otherwise they will
likely stay multicellular. Model hodographs show storms moving
towards the southeast, which will likely keep these storms along or
slightly ahead of the boundary as it moves. This could cause the
storms to become linear in nature, which would increase the threat
for severe and damaging wind gusts. The SPC has a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather over this CWA, with the main threats
being large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The frontal boundary looks to move out during the late afternoon
into the early evening, taking the chances for rain and storms with
it. A small upper-level ridge starts to move over SD Tuesday and
Wednesday, with surface high pressure setting up over central and
eastern SD through Wednesday. Warm, dry mid-level air is advected
into SD, which will help temperatures to warm up again. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday,
with heat indices during these days having the potential to get into
the upper 90s and potentially over 100.

During this time, an upper-level trough is moving southeast from
Alberta into MT and then over ND/SD late Thursday and Friday. With
mid-level moisture looking to move into the state again as well as a
surface low developing in ND, this could lead to shower and storm
development Thursday night into Friday. SPC has a day 5 15% outlook
for severe weather over central SD during this time, so this will be
something to watch in the upcoming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward
across parts of central and northeast South Dakota and west
central Minnesota. So far, the only terminals that have seen
activity today has been KPIR/KMBG. That will change going through
the afternoon hours as KABR/KATY will be impacted by storms. Have
included VCTS mention at these TAF sites through the afternoon
with TEMPO groups targeting more impactful time frames. MVFR cigs
will be possible during SHRA`s/TSRA`s with vsby`s down potentially
down to MVFR/IFR at times. Farther west, KPIR/KMBG with see VCTS
activity through mid afternoon with TEMPO groups for TSRA`s. This
activity should be diminishing and coming to an end by the late
afternoon hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...Vipond