000
FXUS63 KABR 202022
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
322 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures in the 60s finally return for Sunday.

- The precipitation potential for Monday keeps diminishing, but
  an active pattern may develop for the second half of the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Surface high pressure will slide southeast across the region
overnight, bringing light winds and clear skies. The center of the
high does not move right overhead, rather it moves from eastern MT
and western SD, down into NE/KS by 12Z Sunday. This means a light
westerly wind will be maintained overnight.

Warmer air begins moving into the region on Sunday as upper level
ridging builds east into the Dakotas. 850mb temps approach +8C to
+9C by 00Z Monday across the southwest CWA, cooling to about +3C
across the east. Soundings suggest we mix up to about 850mb or a bit
higher on Sunday. Look for highs to rise into the low to perhaps mid
60s for most locations. Winds will gradually turn to the south from
west to east during the afternoon and evening as the pressure
gradient tightens with the approach of a surface trough and mid-
level disturbance. With south winds persisting Sunday night and
warmer air aloft in place, lows should stay fairly mild and may
struggle to get below 40 degrees.

The aforementioned surface trough and mid-level disturbance reach
the western/central Dakotas by 12Z Monday. Inherited NBM PoPs are
generally between 5-10% for precip chances across the northwest CWA.
Overall, precip chances look slim in the 6-hour block from 06Z-12Z
Monday, with rather dry in place below 8k-10k feet.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The long term begins with a surface low pressure and upper level
trough crossing the region on Monday. The storm system has trended
drier over the past few model runs, with the grand ensemble showing
a 15-25 percent chance of receiving a hundredth of an inch of QPF.
The probability is best in North Dakota on Monday and east into
Minnesota Monday evening. Upper level ridging will build into the
region midweek, with 925 mb temps reaching the low to mid teens by
0Z Thursday. Based on sounding climatology, these temps are around
the 75th percentile. High temperatures on Wednesday should reach the
upper 60s, to the lower 70s. Temperatures should remain mild on
Thursday, even with increasing cloud cover and a 30-50 precent
chance of showers.

An active weather pattern takes shape for the end of the work week
and through the weekend with multiple storm systems progressing
across the region. However, there are some timing and placement
issues with each potential storm system, which causes more of a
broad brush approach to pops. Temperatures will favor near to above
average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TMT