Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160121 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
821 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Overall forecast in fine shape. However, I did add some fog,
especially over deeper snow pack. CAMS are hinting at this, and
seems prudent to include in the grids. Low temperature forecast
should be pretty good with sfc high floating across the region
overnight. Am a bit concerned with relatively high dewpoints
currently in place, and how they may affect the forecast.
They should fall with the mercury under clear skies and light
winds later tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Light snow has finally ended across the far eastern cwa this
afternoon with some low clouds remaining. At this time, expect the
low clouds to slowly move east/dissipate tonight as a narrow surface
high pressure area builds east through Monday. Expect most of the
cwa to be clear tonight with light winds over the snow covered and
bare ground areas. Thus, expect temperatures to make a good fall
tonight with record to near record lows again for several locations.
It will be another cold day across the cwa on Monday with light
winds becoming slowly east and southeast. These southeast winds will
be coming off of the snowpack into the bare ground areas across the
north. Therefore, all temperatures will be affected on Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 30s over the snow cover and lower to mid
40s over the bare ground areas. Skies should also be sunny through
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

A very active and cool pattern continues into the long term. Models continue
to generally agree on timing and placement of another wintry-weather-producing
disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday. A mix of rain/freezing rain/snow is
most likely in the early evening and again Wednesday late morning/afternoon.
Even so, 1-2" of snow may accumulate across the CWA by Wednesday afternoon.
Heavier snow amounts are most likely across southeastern South Dakota at this
time with this system. High temperatures generally in the 40`s this week will
feel mild, but are still a good 10 degrees below average. Next chance for
precipitation arrives Friday as another area of low pressure develops and tracks
towards the Plains. Models are still struggling on details, but generally
speaking, mixed precipitation will again be possible. Models continue to hint at
a storm track that would place most of the precipitation south of the CWA, but
things can change in 6 day`s time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Other than some MVFR cigs this evening at KATY, it should be
mainly VFR across the region through the night and on Monday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TDK



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