Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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782
FXUS63 KABR 212000
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The northern portion of the CWA is currently seeing mostly sunny
skies with highs in the upper 50s. Meanwhile the southern portion is
seeing cloudy skies with temperatures in the 40s. The cloudy skies
should remain over the southern portion of SD through tonight,
keeping lows from falling into the 20s. A fast moving upper level
shortwave will cross southern Canada late tonight through Sunday
with only southerly winds and mid level clouds expected. Fairly
strong half km winds tonight, mainly over ND, may keep northern SD
from falling into the 20s.

On Sunday, the region should finally see widespread temperatures in
the 60s, or around average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

We`ll end the weekend and start the work week on a quiet, mild and
dry note across the CWA as the area remains between low pressure
systems...one southeast of the region and the other incoming from
the west. For Monday, timing is coming together in the pattern and
shaping up for a relatively warm day for a change. Most locales
should have no problem warming into the 60s for high temperatures.

By the end of the day Monday, attention will turn to the incoming
system from the west. Models continue to prog a fairly robust
shortwave to slide from the northern Rockies into the western
Dakotas/northern Plains before slipping to the south and east Monday
into Tuesday. NAM/ECMWF/CMC all going with more of a split flow
taking one piece of energy north/east across southern Canada/western
Great Lakes and a closed upper low trekking thru western SD and then
south and east into NE. GFS doesn`t make that split and keeps the 2
areas of energy more together. Thus, it has a little more in the way
of rain farther east into our CWA while the previous 3 models tend
to be dry east, keeping higher moisture potential a little farther
west. After collaboration with surrounding offices, went with the
somewhat more drier east/wetter west solution for Monday night into
Tuesday. Could see a brief period of some strong winds around the
low Monday night into Tuesday, especially across the Missouri River
Valley. Temps will briefly cool owing to the affect of more clouds
and rain on Tuesday before bouncing back the middle to latter
portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR cigs/vsbys are expected through the period at all terminals with
most clouds aoa 5k feet.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TDK



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