000
FXUS64 KFWD 222038
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
338 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/
A split flow regime is currently in place across North America
with the northern stream near the U.S./Canada border and the
southern stream stretching from the U.S./Mexico border to the Gulf
Coast states. A large upper low in the southern stream is moving
slowly east across Arkansas and generating widespread convection
across the southeast states. After an active day yesterday, North
and Central Texas is now in the subsident zone with stable air
and quiet conditions in place.

At the surface, cooler and drier air has worked its way south
into the area behind last night`s cold front. Temperatures tonight
will be chilly, but held in check by the persistent northwest
winds and occasional wrap-around clouds. Overnight low
temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.


30

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/
The slow-moving upper level low that brought rain to most of North
and Central Texas Saturday is over northern Arkansas this
afternoon. This low will over over western Tennessee by 7 AM
Monday. Wrap around moisture from this system is expected to
plague the northeastern half of the forecast area Monday morning.
As the low continues to move slowly northeast skies should become
mostly sunny area wide by late afternoon. Highs will range from
near 70 northeast to the upper 70s southwest. Winds will be
northwesterly at 10 to 15 mph with some gusts to 20 across the
central and eastern zones.

We will have quiet weather Monday night and Tuesday with mostly
clear skies. As a surface ridge moves across Texas Monday night
and moves to the east Tuesday, winds will become light and
variable overnight and then east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Tuesday. It will be cool again Monday night with lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s and warmer Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s
northeast to the mid 80s southwest.

The models have come closer in their timing of the mid week
system. A northern stream shortwave will move down the Plains
Tuesday through Wednesday. As it does, a cold front will move in
the northwestern zones Tuesday night and sweep through the rest of
the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will return Tuesday night and end from northwest to
southeast Wednesday night. With limited instability have just
included "isolated thunderstorms" and no severe weather is
expected. Rainfall totals should range from less than 1/10th of an
inch across the south to near 1/2 inch along the Red River. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the 50s. With the cloud cover and
precipitation, it will be much cooler Wednesday with highs ranging
from around 60 degrees northwest to the mid 70s across the
southeast. Lows Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s to lower
50s.

With the shortwave moving into the southeastern United States
Thursday, we come under northwesterly flow aloft. The models
differ on the strength of the next shortwave that will move across
the Plains, but there may be some low chances of showers and
thunderstorms across the northeastern zones Thursday night. Dry
weather is then expected area Friday into the weekend with near to
slightly below normal temperatures.

58

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 113 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/
The upper low responsible for yesterday`s convection is now
moving slowly east across Arkansas, while the attendant cold
front extends from Mississippi and Louisiana to the northwest
Gulf. Post-frontal MVFR cigs eroded earlier this morning, but the
proximity and size of the upper level system is resulting in a
swath of wrap-around moisture at 850 MB. This has led to a deck
of VFR stratocumulus across North Texas this afternoon (which will
erode after sunset). Low level moisture decreases the farther
south and west you go, so clouds at KACT may end up remaining
scattered.

A surge of 925 MB moisture is progged to make its way south into
the area overnight, leading to a return to MVFR conditions in the
DFW area by 12Z Monday. It is possible that these cigs will stay
just east of the TAF sites, especially if the system moves a
little faster to the east. However, we will maintain the MVFR
forecast from 12-16Z in the Metroplex based on the latest
guidance. At this time it appears that cigs will remain northeast
of KACT. Conditions should return to VFR at all locations late
Monday morning.

Otherwise, northwest winds of 15 to 20 KT will continue this
afternoon before dropping below 10 KT after sunset. Winds will
remain northwest on Monday, with speeds increasing to 10-15 KT
15-17Z.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  76  52  81  58 /   0   0   0   0  30
Waco                49  77  52  83  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               52  70  51  76  54 /   0   0   0   5  20
Denton              50  75  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   5  40
McKinney            50  73  51  78  55 /   0   0   0   5  30
Dallas              52  76  54  81  59 /   0   0   0   0  30
Terrell             50  74  50  80  57 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           50  75  51  80  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              49  79  53  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       48  76  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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