Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
852 FXUS64 KFWD 101001 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 501 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Today and Friday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of 100-105 along and east of the I-35 corridor. - Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances (20-40%) of thunderstorms each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025/ /Through Friday/ A weak trough aloft responsible for the past few evenings` convection currently bisects the CWA from northeast to southwest. This feature will shift slowly east and south over the next few days while undergoing further weakening. Diurnally driven convection will likewise shift farther south and east each day, becoming confined to areas mainly east of I-35 on Thursday and mostly Louisiana by Friday. North and Central Texas will subsequently have a day or two of largely rain-free weather and seasonable temperatures to end the work week, with lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025/ /This Weekend into Next Week/ An unseasonably strong upper trough will sweep across the Plains Friday night and Saturday, sending a cold front southward through Oklahoma. The front itself will likely stall somewhere near the Red River, but thunderstorm outflow will push farther south into North Texas and become the focus for scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Convection associated with the outflow boundary should occur along and north of I-20, but additional scattered storms are possible across Central Texas where model guidance is indicating an active seabreeze. Activity would then dissipate around midnight as instability wanes. The upper trough will continue east into the Ohio Valley Saturday night, but another weak positive tilt trough aloft will linger overhead on Sunday in its wake. Scattered thunderstorms will be a good possibility as a result, both Sunday and Monday, during the afternoon and evening hours. The threat for severe weather will be low due to the absence of deep layer shear, but 50 MPH wind gusts and heavy rain will be possible in a few of these storms. CLouds, precipitation and convective outflow will otherwise hold temperatures a few degrees below normal during the Saturday to Monday period. Seasonably hot and drier weather can then be expected Tuesday of next week as the trough lifts off to the northeast and a ridge strengthens overhead. An even stronger upper trough and cold front will then bring additional storm chances to the region, along with a possible return to below normal temperatures, mid to late next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Light south winds will increase to 15-20 kt this afternoon as the pressure gradient narrows, and should stay up in the 10-15kt range tonight. There is a low-end chance that an MVFR cloud deck will develop over the Hill Country tonight and spread northeast Friday morning, though probabilities are too low to include in any of the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, isolated convection this afternoon and evening is expected to remain east of all TAF locations. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 94 77 93 / 10 0 0 0 20 Waco 93 73 91 74 90 / 10 0 0 0 20 Paris 94 75 94 74 94 / 20 5 0 0 20 Denton 96 75 95 75 93 / 10 0 0 0 20 McKinney 96 76 95 76 93 / 10 0 0 0 20 Dallas 96 77 95 77 95 / 10 0 0 0 20 Terrell 95 75 94 74 93 / 20 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 95 75 94 76 94 / 20 0 0 0 20 Temple 94 73 92 74 91 / 10 0 5 0 20 Mineral Wells 97 73 94 74 92 / 5 0 0 0 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$