Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221813
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
113 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018


.AVIATION...
The upper low responsible for yesterday`s convection is now
moving slowly east across Arkansas, while the attendant cold
front extends from Mississippi and Louisiana to the northwest
Gulf. Post-frontal MVFR cigs eroded earlier this morning, but the
proximity and size of the upper level system is resulting in a
swath of wrap-around moisture at 850 MB. This has led to a deck
of VFR stratocumulus across North Texas this afternoon (which will
erode after sunset). Low level moisture decreases the farther
south and west you go, so clouds at KACT may end up remaining
scattered.

A surge of 925 MB moisture is progged to make its way south into
the area overnight, leading to a return to MVFR conditions in the
DFW area by 12Z Monday. It is possible that these cigs will stay
just east of the TAF sites, especially if the system moves a
little faster to the east. However, we will maintain the MVFR
forecast from 12-16Z in the Metroplex based on the latest
guidance. At this time it appears that cigs will remain northeast
of KACT. Conditions should return to VFR at all locations late
Monday morning.

Otherwise, northwest winds of 15 to 20 KT will continue this
afternoon before dropping below 10 KT after sunset. Winds will
remain northwest on Monday, with speeds increasing to 10-15 KT
15-17Z.

30

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 250 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

High pressure is building into North Texas behind yesterday`s cold
front resulting in gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
Strong isentropic downglide is in progress across the region on
the back side of the upper low as it slowly continues eastward.
Despite the downward vertical motions, extensive moisture remains
trapped beneath the frontal inversion resulting in mostly cloudy
conditions across a good portion of North and Central Texas. The
cloud cover is likely to linger into at least early afternoon,
especially east of I-35. To the west where there are already some
breaks in the clouds, clearing may occur as early as mid morning.
It will be breezy today with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph making
highs in the 60s and lower 70s feel a little cooler.

By tonight the upper low will be over the mid Mississippi River
valley with some wrap around moisture still extending into our far
eastern counties. Some of these areas may remain mostly cloudy
well after dark. Winds are expected to diminish some later tonight
with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s areawide.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 250 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/
/Monday Onward/

A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the
upcoming week with a pair of fronts that will bring additional
shower/storm chances. However, the potential for strong or severe
storms is expected to be limited throughout this time. Otherwise,
temperatures are largely expected to be near or slightly below
seasonal normals.

Northwest winds will remain in place on Monday with some lingering
clouds on the back edge of a departing low pressure system.
Continued cloud cover should hold temperatures in the low 70s
across our northeast while highs climb to near 80 farther
southwest where skies will be clear. Winds will come back around
to the E/SE on Tuesday, but will remain fairly light with a
diffuse surface pattern across the Southern Plains. Tuesday should
feature our only above-normal highs for the entire week with
upper 70s and 80s likely. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will be diving southward through the Central US. Due to this
disturbance`s trajectory and the disorganized flow regime through
the low-levels, moisture return will be quite poor ahead of this
shortwave and its attendant cold front. These features will pivot
through the Southern Plains Tuesday night through Wednesday,
although discrepancies remain in their anticipated time of
arrival.

The GFS remains the fastest solution with the midweek cold front,
bringing it across the Red River into North Texas on Tuesday
evening. The ECMWF and CMC are about 12-18 hours slower, with the
NAM roughly splitting the difference. Have kept the forecast
toward the middle of the road at this point until there is some
better agreement among guidance, so the timeline discussed here is
quite likely to change in the next couple of days. At this point,
it appears a chance for showers and storms will return Tuesday
evening/night as an area of storms should form along the front
across parts of northwest Texas where some elevated instability
will exist. This activity will be steered eastward into our
forecast area where it will encounter a much less favorable
environment for deep convection with only a couple hundred J/kg of
elevated instability available. It will also become undercut by
the front as it continues pushing south through North Texas
Wednesday morning. A broad area of rain with some embedded
lightning strikes is likely behind the cold front through much of
the day Wednesday. This means high temperatures should occur in
the morning in North Texas or early afternoon in Central Texas
just prior to the front`s arrival, at which point they should
fall into the 50s where they will linger through much of the day.
Have shown showers with only isolated thunderstorms in the worded
forecast due to meager elevated instability in place behind the
front. Activity will taper off from north to south Wednesday night
as the front pushes into southeast Texas.

A break in the rain chances should occur on Thursday as shortwave
ridging occurs behind the departing trough. Winds will quickly
come back to the south, but moisture will continue to be scant.
By late Thursday, the second in the duo of northern stream
disturbances will be approaching with a weaker cold front than its
predecessor. This system is progged to affect the area Thursday
night into Friday, although the confidence in the finer details
remains quite low. Models continue to differ with the trajectory
of the primary vort maximum and the strongest forcing with this
second disturbance. The operational GFS is keeping the main energy
well northeast of Texas, while the ECMWF brings it right through
the forecast area with a higher chance for rain and storms. Either
way, the potential for strong or severe storms is expected to be
vastly limited once again without sufficient moisture recovery to
produce noteworthy instability.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  52  77  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                69  50  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               63  51  69  52  76 /   0   0   5   0   0
Denton              67  50  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            66  51  74  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              68  54  76  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  52  75  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           68  53  75  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              71  50  80  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  48  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/58



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