Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191731 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through 18z Tuesday.
An intense surface low over southeastern Kansas/southwestern
Missouri will continue to move east. A cold front extending
from the low is sweeping through North and Central Texas this
afternoon. As it does, westerly winds are becoming northwesterly
which is lessening the cross wind impact on N/S oriented runways
at KDFW. Northwest winds around 20 knots with gusts over 30 knots
will continue this afternoon and winds around 20 knots will
prevail overnight through 18z Tuesday. Only scattered high clouds
are expected.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Water vapor imagery shows a compact shortwave moving through
northern Oklahoma this morning. At the surface, a 996 mb surface
low is located near Ponca City with a cold front extending
southward into North Texas. The front is clearly visible on radar
from near Paris to Corsicana to Temple with a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms along a good portion of it. Behind the
front, westerly winds and much drier air is filtering into the
region. As this whole system moves to the east later today, winds
will gradually become more northwesterly and cooler air will
spill into the region by this evening.

The main concern for today will be gusty westerly winds and
potential fire weather issues through the afternoon. The pressure
gradient will be tightest across the region this morning so as
the sun comes up and deeper boundary layer mixing commences, we
should see an abrupt uptick in gusty winds. Model progged 925 mb
winds are around 35-40 kt across our western and northwestern
counties and we`ve used this as a good estimate of peak wind gusts
through the mid morning hours. As the boundary layer deepens
through the morning and the surface low pulls farther to the east,
we should see these gusts diminish by midday into early afternoon.
We`ll still have sustained winds around 20 kt for much of the day.
Given the brief period of stronger gusts this morning, with a
general diminishing expected through the day, we`ve opted to hold
off on a wind advisory for today.

As for the fire weather concerns, the gusty winds and much drier
air will lead to some elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions later this morning. The greatest threat for this
appears to be from near Graham to Stephenville to Cameron where RH
values are likely to stay around 20% for much of the day. There is
some indication though that as the surface low pulls away and more
northerly winds take hold, this will actually pull some higher
moisture across Oklahoma southward into our area. We will likely
see dewpoints rise into the afternoon hours. This added moisture
and diminishing winds later this afternoon may mitigate a more
serious fire weather threat across a larger portion of North
Texas. We`ll still highlight the area mentioned above in a Fire
Danger Statement with more critical conditions farther west across
Central and West Texas.

Cooler air will filter into the region tonight as high pressure
builds into the Southern Plains. Overnight lows are expected to
drop into the low to mid 40s areawide.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

A reinforcing shot of cooler air will descend across the region on
Tuesday as surface high pressure really begins to build in from
the north and west. Northwesterly breezes will continue, but will
not be as strong as today (Monday). High temperatures will be the
coolest of the week in the lower to upper 60s (warmest across our
Central Texas counties). Tuesday night will be cool, but our
full radiational cooling potential will probably be tempered
somewhat by passing high cloud cover. That said, lowered
temperatures a smidge considering the light winds and still fairly
dry post-frontal airmass in place. This means we could see to mid
and upper 30s showing up across our far outlying and sheltered

Wednesday will be a transition day as surface high pressure slides
off to our east. While surface winds will begin to swing around to
the south, we`ll still be stuck in northwesterly flow aloft as
shortwave ridging begins to build in across the Great Basin. An
embedded mid-level disturbance will swing through on Wednesday,
but looks too parched of moisture to do much more than throw a few
extra clouds our way.

Thursday and Friday will be breezy as the pressure gradient begins
to tighten up in response to lee cyclogenesis to our north, with
some guidance hinting at near wind advisory criteria in spots. By
Saturday, enough moisture will have advected under a strengthening
capping inversion to warrant some low (20%) PoPs for mainly rain
showers during the afternoon. A somewhat more unsettled weather
pattern could materialize towards the end of the weekend and into
next week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  45  66  44  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
Waco                78  44  68  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               73  44  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              71  42  65  39  72 /   0   0   0   5   5
McKinney            74  44  63  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              76  45  66  44  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             76  44  65  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           77  46  64  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              80  45  69  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  40  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   5   5




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