Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
024 FXUS64 KFWD 112330 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Higher thunderstorm chances will return to most of the area this weekend, especially near and north of the Highway 380 corridor. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible, and some storms could also contain strong downburst wind gusts. - Daily low chances for isolated showers and storms will continue into next week with high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 122 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ /Through Sunday Night/ A few diurnally driven showers and storms will develop this afternoon and continue through early this evening mainly for areas across the Brazos Valley and East Texas. Some of this activity may reach the I-35 corridor, but the chances are less than 15%. The main hazards with this activity will be lightning, brief moderate/heavy rain and gusty winds. Otherwise, expect temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s with heat indices near 100 at some spots. The rest of the night should remain fairly quiet before low clouds spread northward by Saturday morning. A mid-level trough will begin to move southward from the TX/OK Panhandle during the day tomorrow and is expected to meander over the region through the weekend. The combination of this mid-level wave and the daytime destabilization will result in scattered showers and storms especially in the afternoon into the evening. Much of North and Central Texas will have at least a chance (30%) to see some rain tomorrow with the highest coverage across northwest TX and the Brazos Valley. Occasional lightning and gusty winds may occur with some of the stronger activity, but severe weather is not anticipated. Some locations may also see brief heavy rain but the average rainfall totals through Saturday afternoon are expected to stay less than 1 inch. The threat for flooding may increase Saturday night into Sunday as the next round of precipitation arrives. Rain chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday, especially for North Texas. The mid-level wave will progress slowly eastward but will likely linger over our region until Monday. A weak surface boundary may also attempt to move south from Oklahoma, but at this time it is expected to remain just north of our area through Sunday. Areas of showers and storms will begin to develop overnight Saturday and slowly move eastward during the day. We will keep the highest PoPs across the western counties and along the Red River Saturday night shifting eastward during the day Sunday. Some showers/storms may produce locally heavy rain that could result in localized flooding. Latest guidance show average rainfall totals between 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches (20-30% chance). Areas generally west if I-35 and along/north of I-20 currently have the best chances to see those isolated higher amounts. Trends will be monitored tonight and a Flood Watch may be needed for some of these locations given the saturated soils from recent rainfall. Afternoon highs will remain below normal over the weekend given the increased cloud cover and rain chances in the forecast. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 122 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ /Next Week/ The week will start fairly active with decent rain chances on Monday and lingering low chances through Wednesday. The upper level feature responsible of the weekend`s weather will slowly move eastward on Monday, but will still be in the vicinity to result in some scattered activity during the day. Rain chances will decrease from there, but given the uncertainty of the progression of the trough, there will be at least a slight chance of showers/storms through mid-week for areas along the Red River to the northwest. The rest of the region will likely remain rain- free. However, we will have to keep an eye on any outflow boundary that could push some of this activity farther south. Otherwise, expect highs to be mainly in the low to mid 90s through the week with heat indices up to 103 each day. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Isolated convection along a consolidated seabreeze boundary will exist near all of the TAF sites for the next hour or so before quickly dissipating this evening, while VFR skies and breezy south winds prevail. TSRA is quite unlikely in the vicinity of the airports with this activity, so this will be addressed with a short VCSH mention for now. An intrusion of MVFR stratus could affect most or all of the airports tomorrow morning roughly between 11-15z. While cig heights should mostly be near or above 2 kft, there may be a brief window of 1-2 hours with cigs closer to 1 kft, especially at the Waco TAF site. Shower and thunderstorm activity will resume during the daytime, and will become increasingly widespread in North Texas heading into the Saturday evening/night period. While showers or an isolated storm are possible within D10 as early as ~17z, will begin VCTS at 22z when chances will begin increasing more substantially. Most convective activity will be tied to a large-scale boundary draped to the north, and it will take time for thunderstorms to build southward progressively along outflows. This activity may also eventually result in a temporary northwest wind shift later Saturday night, but confidence in these details remains low at this time. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 93 74 89 74 / 5 40 50 50 30 Waco 75 92 74 91 74 / 10 30 30 40 20 Paris 75 91 74 90 73 / 5 40 40 50 20 Denton 75 92 72 88 73 / 5 40 50 60 30 McKinney 76 93 74 90 74 / 5 40 50 50 30 Dallas 76 94 75 91 75 / 5 30 50 50 20 Terrell 75 92 74 91 74 / 10 40 30 40 20 Corsicana 76 93 75 93 75 / 20 40 20 40 10 Temple 75 92 74 91 73 / 5 30 20 40 10 Mineral Wells 74 92 72 88 72 / 5 40 50 60 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$