Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
405 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

/Today and Tonight/

A decaying MCS across North Texas early this morning is expected
to be nearly completely dissipated by sunrise. A few showers and
an isolated thunderstorm may linger across our northeastern
counties this morning, but the remainder of the day will be dry.
The outflow boundary from the MCS is expected to wash out later
this morning due to a building upper level ridge and breezy
southerly winds.

An upper level ridge will build across the region, and a very
warm day is in store for most of North and Central Texas. Highs
will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s. There`s a chance Waco
will surpass its record high for the day again (the previous
record is 95 degrees set in 1956 and 1940), and DFW could flirt
with its daily record high of 96 degrees set in 1956. Overnight
high clouds will clear east of the region this morning with sunny
skies for the rest of the day. Surface winds will increase to
10-20 mph from the south in response to a surface low moving from
southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. The strongest winds
will be west of Interstate 35.

The upper level ridge will nudge east this evening as an upper
level trough and disturbance move across New Mexico and then
swing northeast into Oklahoma and Kansas. Thunderstorms will again
form in West Texas on the dryline and make an eastward run at
North Texas. A 35-45 kt low level jet will help its eastward
progression, but the further east it moves, it will run into an
atmosphere characterized by lower and mid levels that have been
dried out below about 700 mb. This will likely act to weaken the
complex, and I anticipate it will be weakening or dissipating as
it moves into the region, but that`s not a guarantee. For this
evening and tonight, will carry a 20-30 chance for rain.



/Saturday Through Next Week and Beyond/

Yet another dissipating nocturnal MCS should leave only clouds by
daybreak Saturday morning. These clouds will quickly erode, and
abundant sunshine will again push afternoon temperatures well
above normal. But as the shortwave ridging, responsible for the
warmest day of the week on Friday, slides east, high temperatures
will lose a couple of degrees. The breezy conditions will continue
however, helping to take the edge off the heat. But with dew
points remaining in the 60s at peak heating, those engaged in
outdoor activities Saturday afternoon should take all proper
precautions. The West Texas dryline will light up again on
Saturday, and some of this activity may invade our western zones
Saturday evening.

Sunday through Tuesday, North and Central Texas will remain under
disorganized southwest flow between West Coast troughing and an
unseasonably strong Bermuda high. Off the East Coast, 500mb
height anomalies may approach 100m, maintaining strong poleward
moisture flux into the Mid-Atlantic states. Though less effective
at moisture transport, our southwest flow will increase cloud
cover during the period. There should still be enough sunshine
each day to allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 80s.

The shortwave energy that will eject into the Central Plains this
weekend will give an extra push to the cold front currently
surging down the High Plains. The frontal boundary may be the
focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday,
with some of this activity potentially entering our western zones.

On subsequent days, south flow will dominate across West Texas and
the Panhandles, with dew points there soaring into the 60s. The
southwest flow aloft should limit the amount of convection that
reaches North Texas, but impulses embedded in the flow will result
in diurnal convection across eastern New Mexico that may attempt
to approach North Texas during the early morning hours. In
addition, the general weakness in the flow above North and Central
Texas will allow for daily (albeit low) shower/storm chances.
Though some spots may get a downpour sufficient to keep up with
normal May rainfall, for the vast majority of the region,
cumulative totals the next several days are expected to be well
under the typical 1"+/week seasonal pace.

Ridging will attempt to re-establish itself mid to late week. The
resulting warming trend will return summerlike heat by the end of
next week with diminishing rain chances. Thereafter, long range
guidance is in remarkably good agreement with subtropical ridging
intensifying over Mexico, knifing into the Lone Star State. This
means above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation
for the final week of May, perhaps foreshadowing an early onset of
the Texas summer.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/
Thunderstorms that developed over West Texas this afternoon
have been moving east into North Texas during the late evening
hours and extended west of a KGYI to KETN line as of 18/0450z.
This activity should slowly weaken as it moves east across the
I-35 corridor. Have included VCTS in the Metroplex TAFs through
11z with a TEMPO TSRA for the 07-10z period. Outside of the
thunderstorms VFR conditions will prevail. Southeast winds 6 to 8
knots will increase to 10 to 12 knots by 11z. As low pressure
deepens across northeastern New Mexico on Friday winds will become
southerly and increase to around 15 knots with gusts over 20
knots by midday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  71  92  72  89 /  10  20   5  10  20
Waco                97  70  92  72  90 /   5  20  10  10  20
Paris               89  67  89  69  88 /  30  10   5  10  10
Denton              94  70  92  70  88 /  10  20   5  10  20
McKinney            92  69  91  71  88 /  30  20   5  10  10
Dallas              95  71  93  74  90 /  20  20   5  10  20
Terrell             93  69  91  71  90 /  20  10   5   5  10
Corsicana           93  69  91  71  90 /   5  10   5   5  10
Temple              96  70  92  71  90 /   5  20  10  10  30
Mineral Wells       93  68  92  69  87 /  10  30   5  20  30




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