Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 141141 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

/12z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the valid TAF
period with passing high cloud cover. Surface winds this morning
have gone light and variable, indicative that the return to
southeast/south flow is imminent as high pressure is cresting
overhead. Will indicate a return to consistent southeasterly winds
at 15z this morning. Breezier southerly winds are anticipated on
Thursday morning due to a tightening pressure gradient, and this
mention has been added into the DFW extended TAF.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 402 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Another chilly start to the morning is on tap as the combination
of dry surface air, light or calm winds, and a mostly clear sky
have facilitated good radiational cooling across the region. While
the most urbanized areas are running in the mid-40s, outlying
locations have dropped into the 30s. Some near-freezing readings
are possible in the most sheltered/outlying areas by daybreak. In
fact, typical cool spots like Eastland (KETN) and Bohnam (KFOO)
have already hit the freezing mark.

Our persistent northerly winds of late will finally begin to veer
their way back to a southeasterly and then southerly direction
this afternoon as the surface ridge migrates east of the region.
High temperatures today should gain some 3 to 6 degrees over
yesterday`s readings with the return of the southerly winds.
Passing high-level cloud cover should be insufficient to notably
impact our warming potential today, although cirrus should
gradually thicken this evening and overnight as additional Pacific
moisture streams overhead. The combination of increasing southerly
low-level winds and cloud cover will make for a milder night
tonight, with lows in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 402 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/
/Thursday through Wednesday/

Thursday will be a warm and breezy day as an upper level ridge
moves across the Plains. A strengthening leeside surface cyclone
will result in 15-25 mph winds with gusts of 25-30 mph. Increasing
cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures from realizing their
maximum potential but afternoon highs will still be in the 70s
with some lower 80 readings in our western counties.

During the afternoon hours, a shortwave disturbance will be
moving across the Intermountain West, and this will nudge the
upper level ridge east. The upper level ridge axis will be
shifting east of the Southern Plains during the afternoon hours,
and a weak embedded disturbance will move across the region. Hi-
res model guidance is developing some rain to our west with this
feature, and this rain may approach our western or southwestern
counties in the late afternoon hours. However, the moisture depth
on the forecast soundings is pretty scant and have opted to keep
silent 10 PoPs Thursday afternoon, but an inclusion of 20 PoPs in
our far western or southwestern counties may be needed with later
forecasts. Through the evening and overnight hours, will carry
20-30 PoPs across all of the CWA as the rain from the west moves
into our area, and better moisture return may support new shower
development with the aide of warm air advection and some added
larger scale lift on the southern end of the stronger disturbance
moving through the Central Plains. The better rain chances
overnight will likely be east of Interstate 35 after 3-4 am, and
included a mention of isolated thunderstorms. Overnight lows
Thursday night/Friday morning will be noticeably warmer in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

A dryline will sharpen across West Texas Thursday night and then
move east across the region on Friday. Rain chances will continue
east of Interstate 35 Friday morning, but should end by Friday
afternoon as the shortwave in the Central Plains lifts further
north away from the region. Friday afternoon will be a rather warm
day with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The dryline
is expected to stall somewhere across our eastern and
southeastern counties Friday afternoon, and then slowly retreat
north Friday night and Saturday. Early Saturday morning, its
northward progress may be hampered by a weak front trying to
impinge on North Texas. The last few days, the models have been
more aggressive with this weak front moving across the region, but
its halted progress south bodes well with the fact that weak
ridging aloft will quickly redevelop Friday night. The GFS is
quicker with the northward movement of the old dryline/warm front
which presents a challenge for morning low temperatures on
Saturday. Have sided with a combination of the NAM and ECMWF with
lows ranging from the upper 40s in the north (due to the front`s
partial southward push into North Texas) to the lower 60s in the
south. Low rain chances for isolated to scattered light rain or
showers remain in the forecast for Friday night across Central
Texas; south of the retreating warm front.

The amount and coverage of rain expected during the day on
Saturday is uncertain but enough signals in the models warrant
keeping at least 30-40 PoPs as the warm front moves north of the
region, the upper level ridge dampens some, and embedded weak
disturbances move across the region within southwest flow aloft.
On Saturday night and Sunday, another upper level trough will be
moving into the Intermountain West, and then into the Plains on
Sunday night. Low rain chances continue Saturday night and Sunday.
Another dryline is expected to move across the region Sunday
night and/or Monday, followed by a cold front on Monday. This will
end rain chances and keep us dry and cool as we head into the
early part of the work week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  50  75  63  86 /   0   0  10  20  20
Waco                69  48  74  60  86 /   0   5  10  20  20
Paris               65  45  73  58  79 /   0   0   5  30  30
Denton              67  47  75  60  85 /   0   0  10  20  10
McKinney            66  46  74  61  82 /   0   0   5  20  20
Dallas              68  50  75  62  85 /   0   0   5  20  20
Terrell             67  46  74  60  83 /   0   0   5  30  20
Corsicana           68  48  74  60  83 /   0   0   5  30  20
Temple              69  48  74  60  87 /   0   5  10  20  20
Mineral Wells       70  47  78  56  86 /   0   5  10  20  10




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