Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
074 FXUS64 KFWD 091014 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 514 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected again today, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Some storms may be on the stronger side, with the risk for gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. - Storm chances decrease Thursday and Friday before increasing again this weekend. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the start of next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ /Through Thursday/ A weak southwest-to-northeast oriented upper trough will be the primary weather feature of note for the next few days as it works its way slowly southeast through the region. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be the result again both Wednesday and Thursday, with activity focused a little farther south and east each day. An exception may be any storms which originate in Oklahoma and move south in the north flow aloft, which could affect northwest portions of the CWA before dissipating. One such storm complex is ongoing and just grazing our western-most counties, and another will be possible Wednesday night. Otherwise, convection will likely develop in the mid afternoon hours, reach peak coverage and intensity 6 to 9 PM and dissipate by midnight. There is no one particular surface focus for convection, so activity will likely be disorganized and initiate on remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday night`s storms. Weak flow aloft will preclude any significant threat for severe weather, though 2000-3000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE may allow for 50+ MPH gusts in the stronger storms. The more prominent hazard will likely be heavy rain and localized flooding. Otherwise, temperatures should be near to slightly below normal for the next week. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ /Thursday Night Onward/ By Friday, the shortwave and associated convection will be mainly along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, though a lingering weakness aloft may still generate a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms. A mid latitude trough will then sweep through the Plains over the weekend, sending a cold front into the Red River region. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the southward push of the front, which would have an impact on weekend temperatures. As it stands now, showers and storms which will likely develop along and ahead of the front (and the associated cloud cover) would keep temperatures at least a couple degrees below normal, even if the front stays north of the Red River. By Monday, the weakness aloft will have shifted into West Texas while a mid/upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley builds in from the east. This would shift rain chances to areas mainly near and west of I-35, while returning temperatures closer to normal values for mid July. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ A deck of stratocumulus over Central Texas has been more aggressive with its northerly surge than previously anticipated, so a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs has been added to the DFW Metroplex TAFs through 15Z. Ceilings will improve late morning into the afternoon, followed by more scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. VCTS has been included at all TAF locations starting 20-21Z based on recent convection-allowing model data, but timing at any airport is too uncertain at the moment for a TEMPO group. Storms will weaken late in the evening and should be gone by midnight. Additional MVFR is possible mainly across Central Texas overnight into Thursday morning, which may need to be assessed in later forecasts. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 95 77 94 / 20 5 10 0 0 Waco 89 73 91 73 90 / 40 10 10 0 5 Paris 90 73 94 75 94 / 30 5 10 0 0 Denton 94 73 96 75 94 / 20 5 5 0 0 McKinney 92 75 95 76 94 / 20 5 10 0 0 Dallas 93 76 96 77 95 / 20 5 10 0 0 Terrell 91 73 94 74 94 / 30 5 20 0 0 Corsicana 92 75 94 75 94 / 40 10 20 0 5 Temple 89 73 92 72 91 / 40 10 10 0 5 Mineral Wells 94 73 95 74 94 / 20 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$