Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240446 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

/06Z TAFs/

As in the 00Z TAF discussion, main challenges will be timing
in/out of MVFR cigs overnight/early Saturday morning and if a weak
cold FROPA occurs on Saturday afternoon.

I only tweaked a few things based on the latest observations,
satellite, and high-resolution guidance. MVFR cigs will occur at
all but possibly Meacham and Fort Worth Alliance airports
overnight, as surface-925mb winds gradually veer through early
Saturday morning. It appears the 925mb winds will veer enough the
next few hours that Alliance likely will only see scattered, if
any strato-cu, where Meacham will see possible a few hours of it
in the pre-dawn hours, with D/FW, Love Field, and Arlington seeing
MVFR cigs on either side of FL020 mostly during the pre-dawn
hour. Majority of the MVFR cigs will be steered ESE of DFW Metro
airports by 12-13z. In addition, high resolution guidance is now
coming more into an agreement of a weak FROPA across the DFW Metro
in the 18-20z time frame, which will start with light N/NW winds
less than 10 knots, slowly veering around light northeast by
Saturday evening, before return to the southeast overnight as the
weak front shifts back north toward the Red River Valley.
Otherwise, occasionally gusty south winds 15-25 kts will veer
southwesterly and weaken to between 10-15 knots.

Confidence is not very high on exact timing of MVFR cigs shifting
E of DFW Metro airports, along with timing of the weak cold FROPA.

As for Waco Regional, they will begin this TAF cycle with MVFR
cigs on either side of FL020, before becoming low MVFR for several
hours through mid-late morning Saturday. South winds 15-25 knots
will persist through much of the morning hours. Cigs will
gradually lift later Saturday morning and into VFR by midday with
continued south flow.

All airports will see MVFR cigs return by midnight and after early



.AVIATION... /Issued 632 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/
Main TAF challenges with this issuance are MVFR cigs overnight and
cold front late afternoon Saturday.

After a day of mostly MVFR cigs across North and Central
Texas...cigs have managed to lift somewhat...and are now VFR
across most of the region. Rich boundary layer moisture in place
over the region should allow cigs to lower once again late tonight
as temperatures cool. All TAF sites (Metroplex and KACT) should
become MVFR by the 0600-0700Z timeframe. Strong boundary layer
winds (remaining 12-15 KT during the overnight) should prevent
cigs from lowering to IFR...except perhaps briefly at KACT where
moisture will be a little more abundant. Given low
confidence...opted to exclude TEMPO IFR for now...but note that
cigs will likely lower to below FL020 for at least a few hours
before daybreak.

After daybreak Saturday...cigs should improve slowly through the
day...becoming VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Regarding
the cold front...right now it appears that the cold front will
stop just north of the Metroplex TAF sites. KAFW could see N`ly
flow for a brief period during the afternoon...but flow looks to
remain weak. Right now...confidence is too low that the front will
make it to Metroplex TAF sites (let alone have a significant
operational impact)...thus change groups to N`ly flow were kept
out for now. Later issuances may have to address this however if
confidence increases that the front may make it farther south than
forecast currently.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/
/Saturday Night through Friday/

The primary concern Saturday night will be thunderstorm
development along a stalled front. Models are in relatively good
agreement that the front will remain between the Red River and
the I-20 corridor through the night Saturday. Moisture
convergence along the front should be weak, but a fast moving
shortwave moving through westerly flow aloft should provide
enough lift to produce scattered storms. Any storms that develop
Saturday night should remain elevated but a few may contain some

The front should lift back north of the Red River on Sunday in
response to a deepening low pressure system across the western
states. The approaching system will bring a steady increase in
large scale lift which will destabilize the mid levels of the
atmosphere as well as increase moisture through much of the
troposphere. Although some warm air advection showers will be
possibe Sunday morning, thunderstorm chances should hold off
until Sunday afternoon/evening when the dryline makes a run at the
western counties. Confidence is fairly high that storms will
develop on the dryline but we are less certain on exactly how far
east the dryline will move. Any storms that do develop will have a
potential to become severe with a threat for large hail and
damaging winds. As of now, wind profiles don`t suggest much of a
tornado threat but it can never be ruled out completely with
deep/moist convection.

The upper low will deepen and cut off across the Desert Southwest
Monday through Wednesday which will keep the atmosphere across
the Southern Plains moist and unstable, resulting in increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances. The potential for strong to severe
storms will also continue through Monday night but there should be
a transition to less of a severe weather threat and more of a
heavy rainfall threat Tuesday through Wednesday when a cold front
moves into the region. Exactly where and when the heavy rainfall
will occur will be entirely dependent on the track of the upper
low and where the cold front stalls, but for now we expect the
eastern half of the region to have the deepest moisture and
therefore the best potential for heavy rainfall. The good news is
that much of the region will receive rainfall amounts between 1
and 2 inches with higher amounts likely across the east and
northeast zones. This rain will continue to help the spring green
up and will ease the fire threat in the west.

Long range models are in fairly good agreement that the upper low
will open up and translate east across the state Thursday,
bringing decreasing rain chances from west to east. However, some
lingering rain/storms are possible Thursday night through Friday
as a cold front and a final piece of upper level energy move into
the region.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be warm with highs generally
in the 80s. Some low 90s will even be possibe in the far west
Sunday if clouds can clear and adiabatic warming can be realized.
Increasing rain chances and the arrival of a cold front will
result in slightly cooler temperatures (mainly 70s) Tuesday,
especially across the northern half of the region. Wednesday and
Thursday will be even cooler once the front moves into Central
Texas and rain/storms continue. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will
be generally in the 60s.

Looking ahead, it appears that Easter weekend will be dry and warm
with building high pressure and the return of Gulf moisture.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  89  65  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  30
Waco                66  86  64  84  64 /  10  10   5  20  20
Paris               63  82  59  72  60 /  10  10  20  30  40
Denton              64  86  62  83  64 /  10  10  30  30  40
McKinney            64  85  62  80  64 /  10  10  20  30  30
Dallas              66  87  65  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  30
Terrell             64  83  63  80  64 /  10  10  10  30  20
Corsicana           64  84  64  81  64 /  10  10   5  20  20
Temple              65  85  64  82  64 /  10   5   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       62  89  62  89  64 /   5  10  20  40  40




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