Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230027 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
727 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

/00Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings arrive tonight. Gusty south winds on Friday.

Lee troughing has intensified the southerly winds across North and
Central Texas today, but the richest moisture remains upstream.
Longwave ridging over the high terrain of the West will shift east
into the Plains tonight, and a 40-kt low-level jet will ensue.
This will help stratus to surge northward, blanketing all TAF
sites during the predawn hours. Cyclogenesis on the High Plains
will further intensify our low-level flow, with occasionally gusts
in excess of 30kts. Increasing westerly flow above the boundary
layer will strengthen the capping inversion above 850mb, and
strong moist advection beneath it will delay the erosion of the
stratus. Ceilings will likely remain below FL020 through midday,
but the unseasonably warm boundary layer should allow ceilings to
climb into the VFR category even if the deck is never able to
scatter out Friday afternoon. Some scattering may occur Friday
evening, but stratus intrusion will arrive Friday night.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 354 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/
/Tonight through Friday/

Mild and windy conditions will the the main weather story over
the next 24 to 30 hours across North and Central Texas.

Low level moisture continues to lift northward as evidenced by
the stratocumulus deck across the Hill Country and Concho Valley.
As surface to 925mb flow increases in magnitude later this
evening, additional stratus should lift northward into North and
Central Texas. There will be at least some mixing of higher
momentum aloft down to the surface overnight and this in
combination with the increase in moisture should result in a balmy
night. Most areas should see low temperatures fall into the 50s,
with a few of the urban areas and higher elevations out west
remaining in the 60s.

Friday will start out mostly cloudy across a good part of the
area. Clouds will gradually erode from west to east through the
day. With clearing expected initially out west, I`ve nudged
high temperatures upward into the mid to upper 80s. Elsewhere,
cloud cover may keep high temperatures in check with readings in
the 70s to mid 80s. Strong surface winds are expected as the
surface pressure gradient tightens and deeper boundary layer
mixing occurs, especially west of I-35 where skies will be less
cloudy. A few areas out west may see near Wind Advisory caliber
winds (sustained winds of around 25 MPH), but at this time I don`t
have plans to hoist one given the marginal nature. Winds may gust
as high as 35 MPH in some spots, however, so it is advised that
individuals secure loose outdoor articles.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 354 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/
/Friday Night through next week/

Warm, humid and breezy conditions are expected Friday night. Some
light rain may occur underneath a stout cap, but at this time will
keep quiet 10 PoPs. On Saturday morning, a weak front will slide
into our northwestern counties, but then stall before reaching
the DFW Metroplex. The front will retreat north Saturday night in
response to low level cyclogenesis occurring ahead of a potent
upper level trough. This upper level trough will be entering the
Pacific NW on Saturday and will track southeast over the next few

Late Saturday afternoon or evening, a few storms may develop along
the stalled frontal boundary in our northwestern counties. The GFS
is weakening the cap in this area, but there may not be a source
for larger scale lift to force convection. We will be monitoring
for any ripples in the flow aloft as a source for lift. If storms
occur, there is a threat for severe storms due to 1500-2000 J/kg
of CAPE, steep lapse rates above the cap layer and strong deep
layer shear. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main
hazards. Rain chances increase Saturday night across our northern
counties as the front lifts north. Warm air advection will
increase across our areas (south of the front), and some
thunderstorms will be possible due to a decent amount of elevated
instability. Hail cannot be ruled out due to continued decent
lapse rates and deep layer shear.

As the front continues to lift north through the Plains on Sunday,
a dryline will sharpen to our west. During the afternoon hours, a
90 kt upper level jet will approach from the west, and this will
spread some height falls across the dryline. A weak shortwave may
be moving across the same, and we anticipate storms will develop
along the dryline in the afternoon hours. A threat for severe
storms will exist with around or greater than 2500 J/kg of
instability and deep layer shear over 50 kts. At this time, a
threat for tornadoes cannot be discounted. Storms will likely tend
to move northeast or east into the evening hours.

The dryline will retreat west Sunday night, but the upper level
trough will be moving into the Southwestern CONUS Sunday night-
Monday. Another round of severe storms is possible along the
dryline on Monday afternoon-evening, but the location of the
dryline may be too far west to impact our counties. However, if
the dryline is pushed farther east on Monday, locations west of
Highway 281 may have a higher severe storm threat. Also, it`s
possible this storms move into our far western counties Monday
evening before dissipating.

As the upper level trough continues to slowly move east Monday
night and Tuesday, additional rain is expected to develop to our
west, and then will likely start moving into our area on Tuesday.
In addition, we may see showers and storms develop farther east as
moist isentropic lift occurs ahead of the upper level system.
Widespread rain is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
front moves into the region and stalls. The deterministic models
vary on the timing of the upper level trough and when it moves
east across the Plains. Have left high PoPs on Wednesday, and
then progressively end the rain from west to east the remainder of
the week. This timing is likely to change once we get a better
sampling of the upper level trough next week. Heavy rainfall will
be a threat next week due to the slow moving nature of this
system, and rainfall totals of 2-5 inches appear likely, with
some higher amounts. Currently, the most likely area for heaviest
rain is across the northeastern half of the region.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  82  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
Waco                59  84  64  86  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
Paris               54  77  63  82  61 /   0   0  10  10  20
Denton              59  82  64  86  62 /   0   0  10  10  30
McKinney            57  77  64  85  62 /   0   0  10  10  20
Dallas              59  82  66  87  65 /   0   0  10  10  20
Terrell             55  79  63  83  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
Corsicana           58  80  63  84  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
Temple              58  85  64  85  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       59  86  62  89  62 /   0   0  10  10  20




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