Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 071123

National Weather Service Jackson KY
723 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

Issued at 723 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 2021

A few remaining showers are left across southeast Kentucky, but
the drier air is starting to build into the area with clearing
skies just upstream. The clear skies should continue to push into
the area over the next several hours. No real changes needed to
the forecast right now.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 2021

A shortwave trough is working east across the area this morning,
with an embedded meso-low over far eastern Kentucky presently.
Widespread shower activity has blossomed overnight and continues
for much of far eastern and southeastern Kentucky. This activity
should diminish as we head towards dawn as it exits eastward.
While some low clouds will remain through dawn, much drier air
upstream will advect into the region shortly after dawn, leading
to clearing skies. Despite the reinforcement of cool air from the
northwest today, temperatures should still manage to get back into
the lower 60s under ample sunshine. Winds will turn a bit gusty by
late morning and this afternoon with some wind gusts up to 20 mph

A secondary shortwave trough will dive southward across the area
late in the day, bringing in a chance for a few showers or storms
later this evening. Some of the showers or storms could contain
some gusty winds given the rather dry lower levels expected this
evening. Similar to tonight, we may hang onto some clouds tonight,
but sunshine should return on Saturday, allowing temperatures to
again reach the 60s. Clouds will be on the increase late in the
day as a warm front takes shape to our south. A few showers could
develop by the evening hours in our southwestern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 2021

The period will begin unsettled with Eastern Kentucky positioned
along an exiting trough to the east. To the west, brief shortwave
ridging will run across the Central Plains and through the upper
Mississippi Valley. Just west of this feature, an area of low
pressure will be developing in the Northern High Plains and shifting
southward to the Central Plains by 06z Sunday. Along with this low,
a warm front will extend from Kansas through the Tennessee Valley.
This will allow for the advection of warm and moist air into the
area. PoPs will be on the rise late Saturday night and into the day
Sunday. By 12z Monday, the low will have shifted north/northeast,
landing in Northern Virginia and Southern PA. Attached to the low
will be a cold front extending through Eastern KY and south. CIPS
guidance suggests 500 J/KG of MUCAPE and 30kts of shear Sunday
afternoon and overnight, so have continued to keep lightning/thunder
in the forecast for this time as well as portions of Monday. As the
cold front pivots eastward, lower than average temps will again
arrive for much of the new work week. Heights will then rebound into
Tuesday as high pressure works in to the north. Uncertainty within
guidance then follows for the next system Wednesday and Thursday.

Touching more on the uncertainty late in the period, guidance
suggests low pressure working across the Deep south as troughing
sets up through the Great lakes. The GFS continues to be the slowest
of the operational models compared to its counterparts the ECMWF and
Canadian, so have thus gone with something closer to these runs.
Ensemble data is also more in line with the ECMWF and Canadian. This
system will again have the opportunity for thunder in the afternoon
and evening hours Wed/Thur. High pressure is expected to follow,
setting up across the upper Midwest, allowing for drier air at the
end of the period.

Overall, the period will be an active and cool one. Highs will be
around the norm Sunday afternoon, before the first system features a
soaking rain followed by cooler than average temperatures. Cool
temps will continue through the work week with highs generally
ranging from the low to mid 60s Monday through Thursday, and mid to
upper 60s Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

Some lingering area of MVFR cigs will improve to VFR over the next
few hours. VFR conditions are then expected through the rest of
the TAF forecast period. Northwest winds will increase today and
could be gusty at times from late this morning through the
early evening hours.




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