Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221859
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
259 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022

A surface cold front is slowly trekking its way across the region
and as of the 15Z surface analysis; the front has crossed into the
forecast area. Present radar has light showers developing across the
Bluegrass counties and along the I-64 corridor. CAMs have
development of showers across the area as the front crosses the
forecast area. With a few breaks in the clouds, instability has
started to build with areas of 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE
having developed. As the front crosses, some of these showers could
tap into that instability and a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible.

Models have this front stalling out along the state-line and
remaining there through the period. Lingering moisture
associated with this soon-to-be-near stationary front, will allow
for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. A subtle shortwave
trough is progged to develop and eject out of the Deep South and
ride up the Atlantic seaboard. This will continue to support shower
activity for the start of the work week. There is some model
disagreement on the coverage of PoP but can`t rule out a few showers
Monday night into Tuesday morning with limited forcing and moisture
present.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022

A fairly wet and stormy pattern is in store for much of the
extended. Models are in decent agreement around the overall
pattern, depicting an upper level trough digging over the Plains
at the start of the period before it slowly moves east across the
CONUS through the remainder of the week. At the surface, a large
area of low pressure develops along a frontal boundary stalled to
our south in response to the upper trough. The low then moves
northeast into the Mississippi Valley and helps lift the boundary
across our area as a warm front Tuesday into early Wednesday. A
trailing cold front is then dragged through the region during the
latter portion of the week, bringing the bulk of our more active
weather. The pattern shifts heading into the weekend with the
upper trough moving off to our northeast and modest height rises
are left in its wake. High pressure drifts over the region at the
surface.

Many locations will see a short break from the rain Monday night
as some of the better moisture makes a push out of the area.
However, soggier conditions return Tuesday, and we see renewed
chances for showers and storms, along with an increase in
temperatures, as the warm front lifts into the region. The best
chances for more active weather during the period are on Wednesday
and Thursday when the now slightly negatively tilted trough
approaches the Ohio Valley and the cold front slowly works across
the region. A decent amount of moisture is funneled up from the
Gulf and focused near the front, but so far signals are still weak
for anything super anomalous climatologically, keeping concerns
for much more than locally heavy rain at bay. Behind the frontal
passage, weak high pressure moving in will have conditions
starting to dry out as we head into the weekend. Regarding
temperatures, we warm to above normal ahead of the front, reaching
highs in the low to mid 80s by Wednesday with overnight lows in
the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures cool down again behind the
front, averaging closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022

VFR conditions are continuing across all TAF sites; however, CIGS
are forecast to lower into MVFR categories as a slow moving cold
front is slowly trekking through the area. VCSH/VCTS will possible
through the first few hours of the period which has been reflected
in the TAF. CIGS along and behind the front will continue to be
borderline VFR/MVFR through the remainder of the period. Winds
presently remain out of the south-southwest before turning to the
north-northwest behind the front after 00Z/Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...VORST


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