Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210837
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
437 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 437 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019

Upper level high pressure was over the southeast CONUS early this
morning. Surface high pressure was just to our southeast, with
its axis extending from the Carolinas eastward over the Atlantic.
Our low level flow was still originating from the surface high,
with flow off the gulf (and its higher moisture content) being to
our west and northwest. With little available moisture, and no
significant features aloft, our weather should remain dry through
the period. Ample sunshine under the upper level ridge will result
in warm afternoons with highs well into the 80s, but light winds
and relatively dry air will allow for an appreciable cool-down
tonight, with lows largely in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019

An upper level shortwave will begin breaking down the ridge to
begin the long term period. This will aid in sweeping a cold front
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Monday. The front will be
relatively weak as the associated surface low will be well
northeast, but there still stands a chance of seeing some rainfall
across portions of eastern Kentucky with some low level jet help.
The mostly dry weather sets in again for the remainder of next
week even as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal overall.
That said, there is some question that we could see another weak
front bring small chances of precipitation by Thursday, but this
feature will struggle to work southward and therefore stuck with
the dry NBM for now. Temperatures will begin the work week closer
to normal, as the cold front ushers in a cooler and drier airmass.
After Tuesday the temperatures begin to warm back into the mid to
upper 80s for afternoon highs. This will be aided by a building
upper level ridge to round out the long term period. The coolest
morning could be Wednesday as dewpoints drop into the lower 50s on
Tuesday afternoon, with valleys in the low 50s and ridges in the
mid 50s. However this will depend on cloud cover from upper level
wave Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019

Predominantly VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through
the period. Very localized fog may affect a few valleys early this
morning, but it should not affect TAF sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL


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