Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 160845

National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2019

Light to moderate precipitation continues to push across southern
and southeast Kentucky this morning. Very dry air with dewpoints
around 20 are present along and north of I-64 this morning,
indicating areas that will remain precipitation free this morning.
To the south, starting to see more and more reports of snow as
temperatures continue to drop to near the freezing mark. There has
been a narrow corridor from Mount Vernon east to Pikeville, that
have seen a quicker changeover to snow allowing for a few
locations within that corridor to pick up an inch of snowfall.
Still limited impacts across the area with ground temperatures
still limiting accumulations on pavement. Will continue to use the
SPS to highlight the snow through dawn. Snow looks to be winding
down across south central Kentucky, so we should see a quick end
to the rain and snow by dawn. South of the Hal Rogers has been
mostly rain up to this point with surface temperatures still in
the mid 30s. Could see a quick changeover to snow before
precipitation pulls out, but should not be a big issue.

As far as today goes, we will see at least some partial clearing
as drier air advects in from the north. This will allow highs to
reach the 40s this afternoon. Temperatures may drop off quickly
this evening with the abundance of dry air over the region. A warm
front will begin to push north tonight with isentropic ascent
developing across the region. This ascent will eventually lead to
some rain chances by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Temperatures should start to come back up overnight, but the
question is can they come up fast enough to limit potential
freezing rain. Its going to be a close call, but if any freezing
rain occurs, it would be brief and likely limited impacts again.
Widespread rain is expected for Sunday. Models continue to come up
with the expected rainfall for Sunday and the NAM and ECMWF now
show potential for three quarters of an inch of rainfall, while
the GFS continues to lag well behind with under two tenths of an
inch. Will go somewhere in the middle of these solutions, with a
good soaking rain. Also bumped up pops quite a bit given the
available guidance all showing a near certainty for rain on
Sunday. Went cooler for highs on Sunday given the expected cloud
cover and rain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2019

Wet conditions continue to look in the offing across eastern
Kentucky next week, as deep southwest flow develops across the
Mississippi Valley, in between troughing in the West and ridging
across the southeast CONUS. At the surface, a boundary will lay
out across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, keeping a focus of
rounds of precipitation, some heavy at times across our region.

Out ahead of the more persistent rains, an area of low pressure
will track up across eastern Kentucky Sunday into Sunday evening.
Temperatures may remain cold enough at the surface, generally
north of the Mountain Parkway, to allow for a small window of
freezing rain potentially early Sunday morning, before
temperatures warm well above freezing during the day at all
locations. Precipitation will diminish into Monday, before the
rainy onslaught moves in from Tuesday through Friday.

Predicted rainfall totals continue to come in high, generally 2
to 4 inches plus for most locations south of the I-64 corridor,
with highest totals targeting the Cumberland, as well as some of
the headwater points of the Big Sandy and Kentucky. Will continue
to monitor trends here, but feel comfortable at least mentioning
some general impacts in the HWO for now. Temperatures will
generally average near normal through the period. Continued to
favor numbers closer to a blended RAW guidance, given the
plentiful cloud cover and persistent high PoPs.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Some light precipitation will spread into areas south of a line
from KLEX to KSJS overnight with mainly VFR conditions expected
north of this line. A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions will be seen to
the south with some visibility reductions to to a mix of snow and
rain along with a gradual lowering of ceilings expected overnight.
All of the precipitation will depart by 13z, with conditions
returning to VFR on Saturday. Light north winds are expected
through the period.




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