Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 092344 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
744 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM EDT THU APR 9 2020

The forecast remains on track early this evening. West northwest
winds continue to gust in the 20 to 30 mph range at times, and
higher based cumulus is moving in from the northwest, out ahead of
a vigorous short wave trough moving in across the Ohio Valley.
Plenty of shower activity is also showing up across southeast
Indiana and into portions of Ohio. Will maintain the current PoPs
through tonight, with better chances across northeastern Kentucky.
Did freshen up the hourly temperatures and dew points through the
night, as mixing will likely keep temperatures from dropping off
too quickly this evening. Will take a better look at forecast lows
in the next few hours. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 432 PM EDT THU APR 9 2020

Cooler and much drier air move into the region today behind a cold
front today, and will carry into this evening. A shortwave trough
rotating through a deep, large scale northeast CONUS mid/upper
level trough will affect the JKL forecast area tonight. It will
bring an increase in low clouds, and with steep lapse rates
extending above 700 mb over the eastern portion of the area,
scattered showers are also expected to develop. They are already
ongoing upstream from IL east through OH. Forecast soundings even
suggest some snow could mix in before precip tapers off
overnight, but it should not amount to anything.

Once the shortwave moves on, mostly clear skies are forecast on
Friday and Friday night as surface high pressure builds in from
the west under west to northwest flow aloft. Our cool and dry air
mass coupled with diminishing wind will set the stage for a cold
night. A Freeze Watch has been issued area wide. Our valleys could
see a significant freeze with readings in the mid 20s by Saturday
morning. Ridges may be spared, with current forecast lows in the
mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT THU APR 9 2020

The surface high will pull away from the area on Saturday with an
elevated warm front pushing in from the west. We should have a
substantial amount of dry air in the low levels, but some moisture
aloft with the front could yield some sprinkles by late in the day
on Saturday. This shouldn`t be a big concern with the forecast.
Clouds will continue to increase Sunday night. Isentropic ascent
really kicks into full gear on Sunday, especially Sunday
afternoon as a surface low tracks into Indiana and Ohio. Southeast
flow ahead of this system may keep a limited rain shadow going
into midday Sunday across east Kentucky, the the moisture should
eventually overwhelm the dry air down low with precipitation
expected areawide by afternoon. This rain could become locally
heavy into Sunday evening as moisture transport from the Gulf of
Mexico aligns fairly well for a short time. This could produce a
quick 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area. This system will exit
on Monday with lingering showers slowly winding down on Monday. A
much colder airmass will settle into the region behind the exiting
system, with some frost and freeze concerns possibly returning as
early as Monday night and Tuesday night. However, still some
uncertainty on where the surface ridge will reside during that
period and thus, confidence is not all that high on a freeze at
this time. However, given some potential, will go ahead and
mention the possibility in the HWO. The weather may turn active
into the middle of the week, with some rain chances returning and
cannot completely rule out some.....snow at some point next week.
However, the better chances for snow as it stands now would be in
the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky, but still plenty of time
for these details to be worked out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU APR 9 2020

A passing upper level disturbance will bring an increase in
clouds, mainly ranging from 4-7k feet AGL tonight. Some lower
ceilings, along with scattered precipitation, will be seen along
and northeast of a line from KIOB to KJKL to KSJS. Ceilings may
approach MVFR briefly closer to a line from KSYM to KSJS, but will
keep things VFR for now. Clouds and the precipitation will exit
from northwest to southeast by around dawn, with perhaps some
cumulus reforming in the afternoon in the 4-6k feet agl range.
West northwest winds of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts
will continue through this evening, before the higher gusts
gradually lessen overnight. Winds will then increase once again
later Friday morning and into the afternoon, although peak gusts
should be lower compared to today.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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