Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 162357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
657 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

A tandem of upper level lows highlight the H5 pattern
across the CONUS. H5 analysis from this morning has a closed low
over Gary Indiana with a trough extending south into the Florida
Keys. Further west, a closed low was located over western Washington
state, with a trough of low pressure extending south to around 500
miles west of the central California coast. Between these two
features, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure extended from
eastern New Mexico, north into the western Dakotas. At the surface,
high pressure had built into eastern Nebraska. Southerly winds have
increased on the back side of this feature this afternoon. Warmer
air has pushed into the region and 3 PM CDT temperatures ranged from
34 at Ainsworth to 52 at North Platte and Imperial.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Thanks to southerly winds,
low level warm air advection and increasing high cloudiness, lows
will moderate tonight across western and north central Nebraska.
Overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 20s-still below
normal, but a far cry from the lower teens experienced earlier
today. On Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough will cross the Rockies,
emerging onto the high plains Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will be
meager with this system, however, steep mid level lapse rates and
elevated, negative LI`s will facilitate at least a mention of
isolated thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday
evening in the southern forecast area. Overnight, favorable lift
will spread east across Nebraska. Light rain will be possible across
northern areas in the evening, transitioning to snow overnight. The
models have come in lighter with QPF potential overnight in the
northeastern forecast area, and feel the need to scale back snowfall
amounts tomorrow night in the northeast. In addition to the snow
threat in the northeast, a strong cold front will push across the
forecast area Tuesday evening. In its wake, strong northwesterly
winds are probable, especially in southwestern portions of the
forecast area. Looking at bufkit soundings for tomorrow evening in
swrn Nebraska, there are some decent differences with the wind
speeds behind the front. The GFS indicates mixing potential which
would warrant high wind warning criteria Tuesday evening. The NAM
soln is noticeably slower with the winds Tuesday evening and guidance
wind speeds do not favor high wind criteria winds attm. That being
said, wind speeds were trended up with this fcst package, and will
advise the oncoming shift about my wind concerns for Tuesday

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Wednesday through Thursday...The shortwave responsible
for the cold fropa and light pcpn in northern Nebraska, will close
off and deepen across the upper Mississippi valley on Wednesday.
Arctic air will back into the northeastern forecast area Wednesday
on the back side of this exiting feature. Highs will struggle to
reach the lower 40s in the northeast Wednesday. Readings across
southwestern Nebraska will reach the mid to upper 50s as warmer air
pushes into the forecast area from northeastern Colorado. Ridging
aloft will build into the region Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Warmer air will push into swrn Nebraska behind the exiting
ridge and east of a deepening surface trough of low pressure. Highs
Thursday will range from around 50 in the northeast to mid 60s in
the far southwest.

Thursday night through Monday...A powerful upper level low will
track east of the four corners Friday into the Ozarks by Sunday.
This system, has no arctic air connection and looks like a nice rain
producer even on the northern periphery of the low. Have trended
back snow accumulations and for the most part, we should see mainly
rain with this system as the forecast stands attm.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Aviation concerns revolve around LLWS conditions tonight,
ceilings late tonight-tomorrow, and rain chances late tomorrow.
Latest satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming across much
of western and north central NEB. While high clouds will continue
to be overhead much of tonight, low-level clouds will be possible
- developing across northern NEB and the Sandhills late tonight.
In addition, low-end LLWS conditions are expected to develop
after midnight. An upper height of about 1500 ft AGL and winds of
40-45 kts at the top of the wind shear layer are forecast, and
conditions should improve during the early morning. Early tomorrow
stratus looks likely to spread across much of western NE with
improvement then occurring by late morning/early afternoon, except
for across parts of northern NEB. Rain chances increase after 18Z
with the best chances across northwestern NEB.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
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