389
FXUS63 KLMK 091807
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
207 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon across
    southern IN. Main threats are gusty winds and hail.

*   Below normal temperatures return by Friday and persist into the
    weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Showers have ended this morning. The Flood Watch was allowed to
expire on time in southern KY at 7 AM CDT. Local law enforcement
reported some lingering flooded roads and road closures in portions
of Logan, Allen, and Simpson counties. The previous Flash Flood
Warning for that area has been transitioned to an areal Flood
Warning, valid until 1015 AM CDT. Between 3-6 inches of rain fell
across far southern KY, with some even higher totals noted just
across the border in TN. The flashier small creeks and streams will
continue to recede this morning, resulting in improvement to ongoing
flooding situations. Larger stem river rises will continue, and
River Flood Warnings are in effect for Drakes Creek at Alvaton, the
Green River near Woodbury, and the Rough River at Dundee.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Area radar mosaic shows an area of moderate to heavy showers with
embedded thunder working across central IN and central KY during the
predawn hours. The threat of severe has come to an end with the best
overall dynamics remaining south across the TN Valley for the
remainder of the morning. Flood Watch was cancelled for northern
parts of our CWA (all of southern IN, the Bluegrass, and north
central KY) with central and southern KY remaining until 12z due to
ongoing flash flood warnings and advisories.

Bulk of the showers and storms will diminish through the morning
before a sfc low currently centered over central IL works across
central IN eastward dragging a cold front across the region. Other
than the morning precipitation, the bulk of the forecast looks to
remain dry. As cooler air slowly works in behind the departing sfc
low and cold front, steep low-level lapse rates and a sfc trough
behind the cold front later this afternoon/evening could spark an
isolated/sct`d storm mainly across our southern IN counties this
afternoon. SPC has that area under a marginal risk with gusty winds
and hail the main threats from some of these storms. Overall the
threat and confidence is low, especially compared to the severe
threat the last couple of days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
near 80.

Overnight some low level stratus could build back in over the area
as cold air advects in over the region as winds become north-
northwest. Lows will be in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

An amplified pattern develops over the CONUS for the end of the week
and into the weekend as a deep trough develops across the eastern
third of the US and a large expansive ridge over the western US.
This will send a series of shortwave troughs through the Ohio Valley
Friday and into the weekend. This will result in temperatures 5 to
10 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday before moderating closer
to normal Sunday into early next week. There could be few chances of
scattered showers or isolated storms on Saturday as the second
shortwave trough drops in across the Ohio Valley from the northwest.

Sunday into the early part of next week will feature a closed low
over the Four Corners working eastward towards the Ohio Valley.
Slight ridging aloft along with a sfc high will bring dry and mainly
sunny weather for Sunday. As the closed low approaches the Ohio
Valley, it will open up and develop a weak sfc low over the central
US and push it across the region late Monday into Tuesday. We could
get some showers and a few thunderstorms with this system. Another
weak system could work through Wednesday with additional chances of
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A sfc low over central Indiana will move ESE across southern OH this
afternoon and evening, dragging a cold front southeast through the
area. BKN MVFR stratus is in the process of scattering and lift from
SW to NE as drier air begins to filter in from the west.
Southwesterly sfc winds will gust to 20-25 kts through sunset, with
winds veering westerly and gradually diminishing 00-06z Fri.

Isolated convection will be possible this afternoon and evening,
mainly north of I-64. However, coverage will be much too low and
likely too far north to consider any TSRA mention in the SDF and LEX
TAFs.

A second sfc trough is forecast to drop south through the area
overnight into Friday morning, with cooler air and winds veering
northerly in its wake. MVFR stratus is likely to overspread the
region from north to south early Friday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW