Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190449
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The Ozarks are currently in between two mid/upper level waves
with showers across eastern Missouri and a line of storms moving
across eastern Kansas.

Diurnal heating along with a subtle wave noted on visible
satellite was aiding the shower and storm development across
Kansas which will continue to move east this afternoon. This
convection will be limited to garden variety storms though brief
heavy rain and up to pea size hail may occur with the strongest
cells, but most of the convection will be rather week. This
convection will diminish this evening with the loss of heating.

The broad area of showers across eastern Missouri will continue to
churn away, slowly moving east through tonight. On the western
edge of the cloud cover where differential heating occurs, showers
and storms may develop this afternoon, similar to the past few
days as a subtle surface wave may help in the development.

Short term and global models keep spotty/isolated rain and storm
chances across portions of the region through tonight and into
Saturday. The convection overnight will be aided by an approaching
low level jet. THe storms will develop on the nose of the jet.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Isolated to scattered convection will continue Saturday night
through the remainder of the weekend. The overall upper level
flow remains weak and, for lack of a better term, messy.

Several short waves will move through the upper level pattern
which remains generally under the influence of
southwesterly/zonal flow aloft through the end of next week. This
pattern lends itself to low to moderate chances for showers and
storm development each day through the forecast. This by no means
indicates that everyone will get rain, but everyone will have a
chance for rain at least.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Pilots can VFR conditions to prevail at area terminals tonight
through Saturday. There could be some patchy fog in terminal
vicinities early Saturday morning. Otherwise surface winds will
be light and shift to the southeast on Saturday. Will have to
monitor the potential development of storms mainly well north and
west of the SGF/BBG/JLN terminal sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Foster


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