Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 222332
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
632 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

...Update to Aviation for 00Z Tafs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. The setup does look good
once again for areas of fog as winds will be light and
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 60s.

The combination of weak low level convergence and an approaching
short wave trough from the south will then provide a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. This activity
may actually start to fire late in the morning as forecast
soundings show little in the way of inhibition by 15-16 UTC.
Sounding profiles may support some gusty winds and small hail with
a few of these storms. High temperatures will once again warm
into the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A weak southwesterly flow aloft with embedded short wave energy
will then persist into Thursday. Thus, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are once again expected. Global models
then depict an upper level shear axis setting up over the region
from Friday into the weekend. This will therefore keep the chances
for scattered storms going. Temperatures will remain above normal
with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances early next week will then be
highly dependent on the eventual track of a tropical system coming
out of the Gulf of Mexico. At the very least, we should see
increased mid and upper level moisture availability. It also does
appear that the upper level shear axis and perhaps some short wave
energy will also provide a focus for continued thunderstorm
potential. Temperatures will remain above normal although the
extent of mid and upper level cloudiness will likely have an
impact on eventual highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Isolated showers and storms have developed across portions of
southern Missouri early this evening. Coverage will remain limited
and as the sun begins to set this activity will dissipate
quickly.

Clear skies and light winds will occur overnight. Some patchy fog
will be possible again Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop across the area Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise


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