Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1238 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Thunderstorms have begun to fire along a dryline situated over
eastern Kansas which is in advance of an upper level system
currently moving into western Kansas. Ahead of the front...strong
southerly winds are bringing in ample quantities of Gulf moisture
and associated instability. Ahead of the dryline within the warm
sector...there is still a bit of a cap...however...the 18z KSGF
sounding has lost about 6-7 C off of the 12z sounding.

Right now...large hail and wind will be the primary threat
although given the amounts of instability and isolated
tornado can not be ruled out either. Storms should be entering the
CWA by late afternoon but models are hinting that severe storms
could become more scattered after sunset.

The front and rain push through the area overnight with winds
veering around to a more westerly direction. With the frontal
passage...temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday with highs
generally in the 50s. As the upper low pushes through Saturday
night...could see some residual moisture wrap around in the cold
air. With low temperatures in the low 30s overnight Saturday...might
see a very light wintry mix during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

As this system exits the region on Sunday...upper level ridging
begins to build back over the area. Sunday will be the coldest day
of the period with highs not climbing out the 40s. Winds begin to
back around to the south on Monday which will signal the start of
the next warming trend. By Tuesday...highs should once again be
back into the 70s and then remain in the 60s the remainder of the
week. The next chance of rain approaches the area by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites Overnight and on
Saturday. MVFR ceilings will return closer to the end of the TAF
period. Winds will switch from southwest to northwest over the
course of the TAF period. Winds will be gusty Saturday afternoon.




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