000
FXUS63 KSGF 251702
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

An upper level low will track southeastward from the central
Plains into the Ozarks region today bringing widespread showers.
Activity will spread into eastern Kansas and western Missouri this
morning and the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks by this afternoon
as upper level diffluence overspreads the area in advance of the
upper low. The showers will linger into tonight with the
deformation zone north of the upper low track.

Total rainfall amounts are expected to range from around one
quarter to near one half inch. A rumble of thunder cannot be
completely ruled out today but will not be included in the
forecast at this time.

The clouds and showers will keep temperatures cooler today
especially in western sections of the forecast area where readings
may not get out of the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Weather conditions will improve Thursday in the wake of the
exiting upper low. Yet another upper level trough and associated
front will follow on it`s heals and push across the region
Thursday night. However moisture levels will be limited with this
system resulting in only isolated showers.

A pattern change will evolve as we head into this weekend and next
week as the mean upper trough position transitions to the east. An
upper level ridge will shift into the central U.S. this weekend
while an upper level trough takes shape out west. The will
eventually bring a deep southwesterly flow into our region by
early next week.

Pleasant spring weather is expected this weekend as sprawling
surface high pressure centered to the east will be the dominant
weather feature. High temperatures this weekend will be near
normal for late April. Even warm temperatures are expected
heading into next week as southerly flow becomes established.

Medium range models continue to suggest that a more active weather
pattern including the chance for thunderstorms will evolve by the
middle and later part of next week although the details remain
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Upper low was centered just northeast of ICT as of 17z and will
continue to track southeast across the area the rest of the
afternoon into tonight. Rain showers will continue to spread
across the area with the low and ceilings will lower into the MVFR
and IFR categories. Visibility will likely depend on the nature of
the shower, heavier showers will dip the visibility briefing to
around 2 miles, however predominant visibility will be in 3 to 5
mile range. Rain should end at the TAF sites prior to 12z Thu with
improving conditions thereafter.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg