Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
739 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 739 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Updated for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

An upper level shortwave was seen on water vapor imagery this
morning moving southeast through northwest Ontario. This feature
will continue to dive southeast, exiting the Northland this
afternoon. An area of clouds were located from just north of the
Manitoba Lakes east into northern Ontario early this morning,
behind a cold front. Today will start off mostly sunny with just
some high clouds moving through the region. How much of the lower
clouds over Manitoba/Ontario will make it into the Northland
remain one of the forecast challenges today. The RAP has a pretty
good handle on those clouds now and does forecast them to move
into northern Minnesota this afternoon and over much of the
Northland by late afternoon/early evening. However, forecast
soundings reveal the moist layer is quite thin with very dry air
above the low level moist layer. We followed a trend of increasing
cloud cover from north to south through the afternoon/evening
then decreasing overnight. It`s possible that those upstream
clouds thin during the day as mixing develops and we would then
have to cut back. Highs today will reach the mid thirties to lower

Colder air will move over the region this afternoon and continue
tonight. Low level winds will become northerly tonight and 850MB
temperatures will drop to around -12C this evening. The airmass
will be rather dry tonight with 850-700MB RH around 35 percent at
03Z Thursday along the South Shore lowering to around 20 percent
by 12Z Thursday. Lake effect clouds and some light snow showers
will be possible in the snowbelt of the South Shore but snowfall
is expected to be less than an inch across northern Iron County.

High pressure will nose into the region on Thursday with mostly
sunny skies expected for most areas. Highs will range from 25 to
30 in the Arrowhead of Minnesota, to the mid thirties in the
Hinckley to Brainerd Lakes area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The Northland can expect relatively seasonal and sunny weather
through this weekend. High pressure will be over the Northland and
western Great Lakes Friday and early this weekend, and another area
of high pressure to the north in Canada Sunday. Highs will primarily
be in the upper 30s and low 40s, although Saturday looks like the
warmest day with highs in the low and middle 40s.

The models continue to indicate a Colorado Low will develop early
next week and eject east towards the eastern US. The latest GFS,
European, and Canadian keep this low well to our south, so there is
increasing confidence the Northland will avoid any significant
impacts from this potential winter storm system. However, its
inverted trough or secondary low might bring the Northland light
snow and rain Monday or Tuesday. The weather will still be
relatively mild, but with highs in the low to middle 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 739 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A weak cold front will move through the Northland today. Expect
mostly clear skies, which will extend through tonight. Breezy
northwest winds will develop by this afternoon, but then weaken
with dusk.


DLH  41  14  32  10 /   0   0   0   0
INL  39   6  31   4 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  15  35  11 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  41  15  34   6 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  39  18  30   7 /  10  10  10   0




LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.