Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Afternoon coordination with surrounding offices, upgraded Fire
Weather Watch to Red Flag Warning for Roseau and Lake of the Woods
counties, as fuels are dries in those areas. Will keep the watch
going further south. Made a few tweaks to clouds for the cirrus
moving across the CWA. Will keep temperatures for what we having


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Temperatures and fire weather concerns will be the main challenge
for the period.

A strong shortwave seen on water vapor loop over Saskatchewan will
move eastward into Manitoba today and stay well north of our area.
However, it will help push the weak upper ridging in the northern
branch further eastward and allow west to southwesterly flow aloft
to pick up over the Northern Plains. The surface trough currently
over the western Dakotas will push eastward into the CWA today.
This will increase the pressure gradient and allow winds to pick
up and become somewhat breezy this afternoon, especially in the
southwest winds ahead of the trough axis. There should be decent
mixing in our northwestern counties up to near 850mb, where winds
are in the 25 to 35 kt range. We will be well below advisory
criteria, but winds could bring some fire weather issues as
discussed below. The mixing along with mostly sunny skies should
help push temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the
low to mid 60s in most areas with some 50s lingering in east
central ND where there is still a bit of lingering snow.

Tonight, the weak surface trough drifts east, with a weak cold
front approaching our northwestern counties by early Monday
morning. Thermal ridging ahead of the trough along with winds and
a little bit of clouds along the trough axis will help keep lows
in the upper 30s to low 40s. The far northwestern counties should
see slightly cooler readings thanks to winds shifting to the
northwest and cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A warm start to the work week will see clouds and rain chances
increase Monday evening and into Tuesday as an upper level shortwave
moves into the northern Plains. The best chances for rain continues
to be focused south of the Highway 2 corridor with a slightly
southward trend in the heaviest QPF noted over the past couple
forecast runs.

Warm and dry weather returns for Wednesday with breezy southwesterly
winds expected during the afternoon ahead of an approaching Canadian
surface low. Winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will be
possible. With afternoon relative humidity values forecast in the
low to mid 30s, near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible for northeastern ND. As the Canadian low progresses into
the Great Lakes region overnight Wednesday and into Thursday rain
chances will increase along a southeastward moving cold front. This
push of colder air will drop daytime temperatures into the mid 50s
for the region, but a quick rebound into the low 60s is expected for
Friday and into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

All sites are VFR with only some high clouds moving through.
Expect VFR conditions to remain throughout the period, although
will have to watch for fog formation along a surface trough axis
tomorrow morning, as some of the high resolution models indicate
lower vis. Winds will be rather breezy from the southwest at gusts
above 20 kts later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will
start to diminish and shift to the west late in the period.


Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Temperatures climbing into the 60s and dew points remaining in
the teens and 20s will bring low afternoon relative humidity
values to portions of northwestern MN today. Quite a bit of the
model guidance has been trending too moist, particularly the
global runs. The high resolution has been better with dry RH
values in our northwest in recent days, so leaned in their
direction and have parts of Lake of the Woods and Beltrami county
with RH values around 20 percent or even lower. Winds will be
marginal but think there will be enough gusts in the 20 to 25 mph
range for critical fire weather conditions. The lower RH values
only impact far eastern portions of the western counties in the
current watch, but winds will be higher in that area. Coordination
with surrounding offices and fire weather partners is still
ongoing, but will likely upgrade our fire weather watch to a red
flag warning for today.


Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Moderate flood stage has been reached at the Red River at Oslo and
the Snake River at Alvarado with crests currently forecast mid week
for Oslo and during the day on Sunday for Alavarado. These crests
are expected to remain within moderate flood stage. The diversion at
Warren briefly reached moderate flood stage but has since receded to
minor and is forecast to drop below minor flood stage by the end of
the weekend.

Elsewhere... minor flooding continues at Grand Forks, Hallock, and
Hillsboro. The rivers at these locations are expected to remain
within minor flood stage over the next few days. The Maple river at
Enderlin is currently in action stage but is forecast to reach minor
stage by early week. Additionally, the Red River at Pembina and
Drayton are forecast to reach minor flood stage by mid week and will
likely require a flood warning in the next 12-24 hours. Since the
southern Red River valley flood is mostly winding down, impacts from
any mid week precipitation are expected to be minimal.

Recent observations from the Pembina river at Wahalla show a rapid
rise in water level. Although current water levels remain below
action stage, this will have to be monitored closely over the next
day due to possible ice jam impacts.


MN...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for MNZ008-009-013>017-022-023.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ005-006.



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