Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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421 FXUS65 KABQ 152033 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 233 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 233 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 - Minor winter weather impacts continue through the day today across western NM. Northwest winds gusting up to 30-40mph may create blowing snow and blowing dust that can create hazardous driving conditions for motorists. - Winds strengthen again Monday before peaking in strength Tuesday, producing another round of blowing dust over parts of eastern NM. Strong crosswinds will also produce hazardous travel along area highways along and east of the central mountain chain. There is high confidence in critical fire weather conditions across much of eastern and central NM on Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 233 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Isolated to scattered snow showers, mainly across the higher terrain taper off this evening with mostly clear skies after midnight. Milder and tranquil weather Sunday. Even warmer on Monday with increasing southwest winds and the potential for rapid fire spread across eastern NM. Another storm moves across northern NM Tuesday resulting in more strong to high winds across the forecast area along with the chance for some rain and mountain snow showers across far northern NM. Rapid fire spread possible across central and eastern NM. Rain and snow could linger across far northeast NM Tuesday night. Cooler areawide Wednesday with gusty north and northwest winds along and east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures rebound to around to slightly above normal late week with some gusty winds and potential for rapid fire spread across eastern NM Thursday and potentially expanding to some of central NM Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 233 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 A trailing short wave trough is moving over the area today and generating a round of isolated to scattered snow showers with very limited accumulation. No lightning so far, but a stray strike can not be ruled out later this afternoon. Showers are modeled to diminish this evening and moderate northwest flow aloft will weaken and be replaced by a broad low amplitude ridge Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be 10-15 degrees warmer than today`s and generally within a few degrees of average. Winds will be even lighter on Sunday and will combine with plenty of sunshine making for a rare fair weather day embedded within a higher frequency of very windy days with that darn blowing dust. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Even warmer temperatures are expected on Monday to begin the workweek as a broad ridge slides east and southwest flow increases over the next trough moving into the Pacific coast. Deep mixing heights will tap into 500-700 mb winds of 40 to 50 kt midday Monday and Monday afternoon resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions across the highland and mountain zones. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible across northeast NM south of a 1000 mb surface lee low over eastern CO. This will result in the potential for rapid fire spread across northeast and east central NM due to min RH values of 7 to 10%. Winds remain gusty across mountain peaks Monday night as 700 mb flow increases to around 50 kts ahead of the trough moving over the Great Basin. The trough moves over the Four Corners and clips northern NM Tuesday with most of the state under 500 to 700 mb 50 to 70 kt winds at the base of the trough. Daytime mixing and subsidence behind the Pacific cold will help bring some of these winds down to the surface resulting in a very windy day across the state. Widespread gusts of 45 to 60 mph are expected with wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible across the highlands of eastern NM and south central Mountains, including Ruidoso. With the strong to high winds combining with min RH values of 8 to 15 percent across eastern NM and the middle and lower RGV, rapid fire spread will be possible across these parts of the state. In terms of precip, some rain and mountain snow showers will be possible across northern NM with any accumulating snow remaining confined to mountain peaks near the CO border. Temperatures across western NM cool down to around 10 to 15 degrees below average and to slightly below average across central NM behind the Pacific cold front. Downsloping west winds will keep temperatures slightly above average across the eastern plains. The trough look to close off into a low across far western KS and the OK/TX panhandles Tuesday night. Moisture wrapping around on the backside of the low combined with northerly flow behind a backdoor cold front will result in some light snow across far northeast NM. 1 to 3 inches of snow could be possible through sunrise Wednesday at I- 25 at Raton Pass near the CO border based on ensemble cluster guidance. Cooler behind the Pacific and backdoor fronts on Wednesday with temperatures generally 10 to 15 degrees below average areawide. Gusty northwest and north winds across eastern NM with gusts of 40 to 50 mph across the central highlands through midday. Temperatures across far western NM will be a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday as ridging moves in late in the day. The ridge quickly moves over the state Wednesday night and into the Great Plains come Thursday afternoon ahead of the next Pacific trough moving into the Great Basin. Warmer and near average temperatures areawide with gusty southwest winds across eastern NM Thursday afternoon due to the development of a around 1000 mb surface lee low over southeast CO. This will result in the potential for more rapid fire spread across eastern NM. Ensemble cluster guidance shows the trough moving across the central and southern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning ejecting into the central Great Plains by Friday afternoon Winds on Friday do not look as strong as the recent system due to the current timing of the trough passage and 70 to 80 kt mid and upper level jet max exiting the state before daytime mixing commences. Still, breezy to windy conditions combining with min RH values of 8 to 14% will result in the potential for rapid fire spread across central and eastern NM Friday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Other than short-lived MVFR conditions in/near iso/sct showers this afternoon/evening, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Clearing skies are forecast overnight. Winds are significantly less than yesterday`s, but gusts to between 25-35kts will be common today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COMING TO EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY... A warming and drying trend will begin Sunday, with temperatures rising above average areawide on Monday. A Pacific storm system will approach Monday, causing a lee side trough to deepen and bringing increasing southwest winds and several hours of critical fire weather conditions to eastern and portions of central NM. The Pacific system will move over on Tuesday, bringing stronger westerly winds and another round of critical fire weather conditions to eastern and much of central NM. This system will also bring low to moderate chances for wetting precipitation to northern NM, mainly in the northern mountains. Another round of critical fire weather conditions will develop on Thursday as an additional disturbance races east through the southern Rockies and NM. Moderate westerly flow will persist behind the departing disturbance on Friday, bringing another round of critical fire weather conditions to eastern and portions of central NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 24 56 28 66 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 12 51 21 61 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 19 53 27 65 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 15 57 18 67 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 20 53 23 65 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 16 59 19 70 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 18 57 27 67 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 26 60 35 70 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 23 57 29 67 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 17 63 26 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 21 64 28 74 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 9 44 21 54 / 30 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 26 54 33 62 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 22 54 32 64 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 16 49 28 60 / 30 0 0 0 Red River....................... 12 40 25 49 / 50 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 9 45 24 56 / 30 0 0 0 Taos............................ 13 52 22 63 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 19 53 29 65 / 20 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 24 60 28 70 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 25 55 32 63 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 22 59 28 67 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 33 60 40 71 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 30 62 38 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 27 64 32 77 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 62 35 75 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 24 65 32 78 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 63 33 75 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 23 64 30 77 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 63 33 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 23 64 31 77 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 30 59 36 70 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 63 34 75 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 32 67 36 79 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 54 34 66 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 56 35 67 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 27 57 31 69 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 21 58 23 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 21 54 30 66 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 24 57 32 68 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 23 58 31 68 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 29 60 37 71 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 28 56 38 67 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 19 58 31 69 / 30 0 0 0 Raton........................... 18 61 27 72 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 20 62 28 74 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 20 59 31 70 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 28 61 38 77 / 20 0 0 0 Roy............................. 24 60 33 75 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 28 69 38 81 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 29 65 37 79 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 28 68 39 81 / 20 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 31 66 38 80 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 30 67 36 81 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 31 69 35 81 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 35 73 35 84 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 31 68 36 81 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 65 37 76 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ104-123>126. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-106-124>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...11 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.