Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151734 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1034 AM MST Fri Jan 15 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Northwest to nly winds at mountain top level will remain strong
before weakening aft 16/06Z then trending west to nwly and
strengthening again aft 16/12Z as a disturbance crosses northern NM.
Sct-bkn mid to high clouds to increase over nrn NM aft 16/06Z also.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MST Fri Jan 15 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest winds will taper off today across much of the area with
passing high clouds and slightly warmer temperatures. A weak weather
system will slide southeast over the state Saturday with more wind,
thicker clouds, and some light snow showers across the northern high
terrain. Sunshine will return Sunday with less wind again. The next
weather system will approach the region on Monday with the potential
for snow across northern New Mexico, very strong winds, and colder
temperatures Monday night and Tuesday. Weather conditions look to be
unsettled through much of next week with a couple more storm systems
moving across the southwest United States.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Winds aloft are forecast to veer to northerly today, diminishing or
eliminating much of the mountain wave activity of the past couple of
days in the lee of the central mountain chain. Strong winds will
continue in the higher terrain but the mountain wave activity in the
east mountains and in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains
diminish. Strong north winds in far northeast Union County may
approach wind advisory speeds at/near Clayton for a brief time
during the afternoon hours. High temperatures are forecast to be a
few degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to less turbulent mixing.

Strong northwest winds return for much of the forecast area Saturday
as a weak and mostly dry short-wave trough slides southeastward
through the state. Expect the stronger winds to once again visit
locations to the lee of the central mountain chain. Slight chances
for brief light snow or flurries are possible along the west slopes
of the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo mountains mid-day Saturday with
partly sunny skies and breezy to windy conditions elsewhere.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Dry northwest flow will continue over NM Saturday night and Sunday
in the wake of the departing shortwave from Saturday. Temps will be
near normal across eastern NM Sunday and roughly 5-10F above normal
across the west under sunny skies and lighter winds.

Significant changes begin Monday as two pieces of upper level energy
dive south into the western CONUS and a strong surface high slides
south down the Front Range. Deep layer ascent within an increasingly
moist airmass moving south from the central Rockies will spread snow
into the Sangre de Cristo Mts Monday night. The combination of strong
surface high pressure moving southwest into eastern NM and rapidly
falling pressure heights over SoCal will generate very strong east
winds within the RGV Monday night. Model guidance has been consistent
with high winds in the ABQ metro area Monday night. Snow is likely
to develop southwest from the northern mts onto the Cont Dvd Tuesday
morning as surface convergence increases to the west of the RGV.

Forecast confidence deteriorates significantly Tuesday night as we
wait to see how and when the upper level storm system developing
over SoCal ejects eastward toward NM. At this time it appears there
will be a break Tuesday night thru Wednesday night before the system
attempts to eject east across northern MX, AZ, and/or NM Thursday.
Forecast models are all over the place still from run to run. There
are indications that warmer air will arrive with the second storm
system which would raise snow levels much higher than the initial
wave Monday night and Tuesday.

Guyer/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry north to northwest flow aloft continues through the weekend.
Isolated snow showers are possible over the peaks of the northern
mountains mid-day Saturday with brisk northwest winds being the main
weather story elsewhere. Major changes to a more active weather
pattern remain in the offing for early next week. Colder conditions
with increasing chances for precipitation are expected Monday night
into Tuesday and perhaps beyond.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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