Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202328 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
528 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Latest weather prediction models have backed off on the strength of
a backdoor/easterly push overnight. Not expecting more than lcl
VFR/MVFR cigs along the east slopes of the central mountain chain,
possibly impacting KLVS late tonight into Thursday morning.
Elsewhere, VFR condtions will prevail along with light winds.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018...
...NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOPING FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms over northeast
and east central areas tonight through Thursday night as a back door
cold front waivers in and out of New Mexico and weak disturbance clip
the northeast corner of the state aloft. An axis of higher pressure
extending eastward from Arizona will induce record and near record
high temperatures over west central and southwest New Mexico on
Thursday, then over south central and southeast areas as well on
Friday. An upper level trough crossing the northern and central
Rockies on Friday will cause breezy conditions to develop as well
with fire weather concerns over north central, northeast and east
central parts of the state. Excessive heat will be possible Friday
and possibly into Saturday east of the south central mountains. A
Pacific cold front will drop temperatures a few to 8 degrees on
Saturday afternoon from Friday`s readings, with the least cooling in
the southeast. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will return
daily Sunday into early next week along and east of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, where weak back door fronts will periodically
increase low level moisture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad ridge of high pressure centered over southern AZ will
decrease in amplitude during the latter half of the work week as an
upper level trough crosses the northern and central Rockies, with a
ridge axis stretching eastward across southern NM. This will lead to
a couple of hot days Thursday and Friday, and possibly also Saturday
across the southeast. Record and near record warmth over the
southwest Thursday won`t quite reach Heat Advisory criteria, but it
will Friday and possibly Saturday across the southeast (especially
Chaves, eastern Lincoln, and possibly De Baca Counties). The system
passing north of NM on Friday is forecast to steer a Pacific cold
front southeastward across the state Friday night with cooler
temperatures Saturday. Only a degree or two of cooling will be
possible across southeast areas, where Heat Advisory criteria could
again be reached.

An upper level low pressure system will cross the central Rockies
during the early part of the coming weak causing further suppression
of the subtropical Ridge until Tuesday, when the system will exit and
the high will build back over NM with warming temperatures.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY EAST SLOPES
SANGRES AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...

A warming/drying trend is in play as a strong and expansive upper
high over the northern Gulf of California shifts east toward New
Mexico. A hot, dry and unstable atmosphere currently prevails across
western New Mexico and will gradually expand east across the state
through Friday and into Saturday. Winds will be on the uptrend by
Friday as the ridge axis shifts south and allows the westerlies to
penetrate northern New Mexico. Friday is looking like a critical
fire weather day for portions of northern and eastern New Mexico,
with winds being the only potential limiter. Will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the northeast highlands and east slopes of the
Sangres where forecast confidence is highest on hitting critical
threshold, but will opt to let subsequent shifts add other zones
based on forecast trends.

Northwest flow will bring late day breezes to much of the area
Saturday, making for elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. The exception on Saturday will be the eastern plains,
where a backdoor cold front will bring a moist airmass which may
fuel a round of wetting storms late day across the northeast. Look
for more elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Sunday,
especially across northern New Mexico, as a trough moves slowly east
across the southern Rockies. An upper level high will build over the
area early next week and result in more hot, dry and unstable
conditions but with less wind. The only exception might be across
the eastern plains where Gulf moisture may fuel more daytime heating
triggered wetting storms.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103.

&&

$$

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