Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 061721 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1021 AM MST Fri Dec 6 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Thick high clouds will stream over NM with light winds thru Saturday
morning.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...753 AM MST Fri Dec 6 2019...
.UPDATE...
Adjusted cloud cover to mostly cloudy as thick high clouds approach
from the west today and tonight.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...141 AM MST Fri Dec 6 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Yesterdays storm that delivered some strong winds and a little bit
of precipitation is well to our east. We will be under a ridge of
high pressure today and tonight. The ridge will break down Saturday
with zonal flow developing. Around a 550mb low will come into
northern CA late Saturday. It will weaken as it arrives in the Great
Basin Sunday. A subtropical stream of higher level moisture will aid
the trough in developing rain and mountain snow showers from Saturday
night into Monday night. Dry weather returns from Tuesday into
Thursday. A sharp trough will cross NM Thursday but it appears
precipitation will be sparse.

CHJ

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A ridge is building in from the west with high cirrus streaming
along its western half into NM. This has limited low cloud/fog
development across western and northern valley locales so far this
morning, but have included mention of patchy fog for these areas
through sunrise with Td spreads in the 0-3F range at many locations.
Overall, not expecting huge disruptions from the fog. Meanwhile, a
backdoor front has moved through northeastern NM and this feature,
along with high cirrus overhead will drop daytime highs through
eastern NM. On the whole, daytime highs will be within a few degrees
of normal with upper 40s for the west, ranging from 40 to the low
50s along the Rio Grande Valley, and in the low to mid 50s for the
eastern plains.

Saturday will see the ridge flatten over NM with zonal flow setting
up. Sfc return flow will setup overnight into Sat morning across the
east with a lee side trof setting up in the afternoon. Mostly breezy
westerlies will filter down to the sfc along the I-40 corridor from
the central mtn chain to the TX border in the afternoon. Daytime
highs rise considerably given the downsloping winds and clearing
skies overall. Tucumcari will likely see highest temperature,
reaching near 70. Meanwhile, high clouds will again be approaching
western NM by the end of Sat ahead of the next storm system moving
into the western CONUS leading into the long term period Sat night.

24/RJH

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The west coast trough will move inland Saturday night and slowly
advance east toward NM, finally crossing the state Monday. There will
be time for the atmosphere to moisten up. This will result in rain
showers over the lower elevations and snow showers in the mountains.
Despite the slow movement of the trough, rain and snow amounts do not
look too impressive yet. Rain totals look to be mostly below one
half inch while snow could accumulate 6 to 12 inches on the higher
elevations of the northern mountains.

The upper low will exit NM Tuesday leaving behind dry and chilly
weather. Mostly dry weather will continue through next week. A
trough will cross NM Thursday while a back door cold front enters the
east. A few snow showers could exist on the northern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains Thursday.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler today with near normal temperatures area wide and poor
ventilation. Westerlies set up Sat with breezy winds filtering down
to the eastern plains Sat and Sun afternoons. Ventilation will be at
its best Sun, while high Haines will be present across the east Sat.
The next weather system bringing precip. arrives Sun with mountain
snow and valley rain favoring western slopes of western and northern
NM Sun into Sun night, lingering into Mon with snow levels dropping
to valley floors Mon morning. Temperatures fall Mon behind the
Pacific front, stabilizing by mid-week with drier conditions moving
in.

24/RJH

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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