Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 301206
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
606 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

High pressure will lead to one more day of mostly dry conditions
before a return to moisture on Saturday. Storm coverage will favor
western and northern New Mexico over the weekend. Potential for
showers and thunderstorms will continue into next week alongside
cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Upper low forecast to move through the northern and central Rockies
may at least partially phase with another upper low over northwest
Old Mexico, resulting in an increase in moisture across western and
northern New Mexico. Today will be mostly dry except for the
potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms over
the southwest mountains and the northwest corner of the state. Gusty
showers may make it into the Farmington area early this evening.
Models forecast greater areal coverage but still hit and miss
showers and storms Saturday afternoon over the west and north.
Breezy to windy south to southwesterlies are likely over northeast
New Mexico both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon with the
surface low staying anchored over southeast Colorado. Highs will be
near to a few degrees warmer than normal, and overnight lows will be
several degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

As upper level low pressure parades across the Great Basin and
Northern Rockies, advection of subtropical moisture will
infiltrate the Land of Enchantment. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected to persist into Sunday favoring western and
northern zones. As the low is pulled north and the trough axis
passes across NM, abundant moisture will lead to even greater
coverage of storms on Monday. Model consistency after this point
becomes lackluster, with the ECMWF breaking off a piece of energy
from this trough and forming a cutoff low to the west of NM. The
CMC details a similar event, while the GFS moves the system along
to the Great Plains. Should the scenario from the ECMWF pan out,
widespread showers and thunderstorms could be expected Tuesday
through the end of the week alongside cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Ridge of high pressure will continue shifting east and south
through the day today. Dry air will limit convective potential,
with isold tstorms favoring far nw areas as well as the Gila aft
30/18Z. Persistent lee-side troughing will once again bring rise
to gusty aftn winds across the central mts and ewd.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Showers and storms will resume today over northwest and southwest
New Mexico and will become more widespread Saturday over the north
and west but will still be hit and miss. South to southwest
afternoon breezes today over the northeast and portions of the east
central may gust to around 35 mph at times, and 1-3 hours of
localized critical fire weather conditions may materialize over the
Northeast Plains.

Potential for wetting rain from showers and thunderstorms increases
Sunday into Monday over the northwest third to half of New Mexico as
northwest flow aloft develops. By mid to late next week forecast
models suggest unsettled weather with continued chances for showers
and storms. High temperatures will cool down several degrees below
average next Tuesday through Thursday as forecast ventilation rates
decrease significantly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  81  51  78  52 /   5  20  20  30
Dulce...........................  77  41  74  40 /   5  10  30  40
Cuba............................  74  45  73  47 /   5   0  10  20
Gallup..........................  78  44  76  47 /   5  10  20  30
El Morro........................  73  44  72  46 /   5  10  20  30
Grants..........................  77  42  75  42 /   5   5  20  20
Quemado.........................  74  45  74  45 /  10  10  30  30
Magdalena.......................  74  50  74  50 /  10   5  20  10
Datil...........................  71  44  71  45 /  10  10  30  20
Reserve.........................  79  46  78  43 /  20  10  40  30
Glenwood........................  81  54  81  53 /  20  20  30  30
Chama...........................  70  39  68  39 /  10   5  30  30
Los Alamos......................  73  48  73  50 /   5   0  20  20
Pecos...........................  74  46  74  48 /   0   0  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  72  37  71  35 /   5   0  30  20
Red River.......................  66  34  65  36 /   5   5  30  20
Angel Fire......................  67  32  66  33 /   5   5  30  20
Taos............................  74  41  74  41 /   5   0  20  20
Mora............................  73  42  72  41 /   5   0  30  20
Espanola........................  78  44  79  48 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Fe........................  73  49  74  51 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  77  47  77  48 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  53  78  57 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  55  80  55 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  48  82  53 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  53  81  55 /   0   0   5  10
Belen...........................  82  53  83  50 /   0   0   5  10
Bernalillo......................  83  50  81  52 /   0   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  81  50  82  49 /   0   0   5  10
Corrales........................  83  52  82  54 /   0   0   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  81  51  82  50 /   0   0   5  10
Placitas........................  79  50  79  54 /   0   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  81  53  80  54 /   0   0   5  10
Socorro.........................  82  55  83  53 /   5   0   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  49  73  51 /   0   0  10  10
Tijeras.........................  75  50  76  51 /   0   0  10  10
Edgewood........................  76  47  76  46 /   0   0  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  43  77  41 /   5   0  10  10
Clines Corners..................  74  47  74  47 /   5   0  20  10
Mountainair.....................  74  49  75  47 /   5   0  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  74  51  76  48 /   5   0  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  77  54  78  52 /   5   5  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  70  48  70  47 /  10   5  10   5
Capulin.........................  76  46  75  46 /   0   0  20  10
Raton...........................  83  42  79  43 /   5   0  20  10
Springer........................  80  43  77  43 /   0   0  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  78  45  76  45 /   0   0  20  10
Clayton.........................  84  53  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  81  51  78  49 /   0   0   5   5
Conchas.........................  81  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  82  52  82  51 /   0   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  84  56  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  82  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  84  54  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  85  56  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  80  53  80  51 /   5   5   5   0
Elk.............................  77  50  76  48 /   5   5  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12


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