Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 152256 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
456 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Upper ridge building over NM during the next 24 hrs. Sfc high over
ern NM at 23Z to give way to a weak lee trough by 16/18Z. Generally
light winds aft 16/01Z although KSAF may see a nly drainage wind
between 16/10-16Z gusting to around 25kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
It will be a quieter week ahead. After another morning
with temperatures near or below freezing across many areas, Saturday
will give way to sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures further
warm on Sunday, with Monday being the warmest day of the week. A
storm system passing to the north early next week will lead to a
brief cooldown and afternoon breezes, but temperatures warm up again
to be within a few degrees of normal by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
Cool/cold and dry northwest flow aloft tonight transitions to a
ridge of high pressure sliding in from AZ Saturday. Weakening winds
aloft along with a very dry airmass will likely result in excellent
radiational cooling overnight. Decided to go with a freeze warning
for far eastern NM given the likelihood of freezing or slightly
below freezing temps for the first time this fall at places like
Clayton, Logan, San Jon, Clovis and Portales.

A picture perfect day remains on track for Saturday with high
temperatures rebounding closer to 30-yr averages for mid October.
Ridge axis is forecast to slide east of NM Saturday night, resulting
in a weak lee-side trough and south to southwest breezes east of the
central mountain chain Saturday night.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A ridge of high pressure will stretch northwest to southeast across
the state on Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm a few degrees
beyond Saturday`s readings. By late day Sunday, the ridge will get
scooted off to the east, allowing southwest flow to set up. This
will draw some mid to high level moisture northward with minimal
precipitation chances for western areas of the state, which the 12z
Canadian had and what the 06z ECMWF did. But, it will more likely end
up as a few sprinkles and gusty winds.

By early Monday, a closed low reaches the Great Basin region. The
pressure gradient will tighten as the system approaches and lead to
breezy afternoon southwest winds Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
While the system stays north and crosses Colorado, weak cold air
advection will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees Monday
night and Tuesday in the wake of the system. Quiet conditions
continue, as a ridge tries to build in again late week.
Temperatures rebound closer to normal for mid October, while the
forecast remains dry. There could be another upper-level trough
that impacts the state late next weekend, but with the lack of
model agreement beyond that, it`s too soon to tell.

33/31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a chilly night tonight, a warming trend trend will get
underway for the weekend and into early next week. Southwesterly
flow is forecast to increase Monday, improving ventilation rates for
most locations Monday and Tuesday. Vent rates then decrease
Wednesday and Thursday behind the passage of a dry cold front. The
return of Gulf moisture may result in a few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms for eastern NM late next week.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Saturday for
the following zones... NMZ230-234>236.

&&

$$


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