Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241136 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A strong backdoor front has entered into far NE New Mexico with
MVFR/IFR cigs likely starting at KCAO and KRTN in the coming hour or
two. The front will continue south today and is expected to reach
KLVS by 14-15Z, KTCC by 13Z, KLVS by 15Z, and KROW by 17Z. Strong
NE/E winds will follow the frontal passage at all eastern TAF sites,
including KCVN, and KCVS. KROW will only see a weak wind shift to the
NE at 17Z with stronger winds delayed until later this evening. The
front will slow somewhat Tue afternoon, then surge through the
central mtn chain Tue evening bringing strong gap winds 25-35kts to
KSAF and KABQ by 00Z-03Z. Gusts could reach up to 45-50kts at their
peak around 04Z-08Z at KABQ. CIGs are expected to start lowering to
MVFR/IFR across the east this evening and into Wed morning,
including KRTN, KCAO, KLVS, KTCC, KCVN, and KROW. Western NM will
see VFR cigs through the TAF cycle.



.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018...
A cold front will push into eastern New Mexico today, eventually
advancing into central and western parts of the state this evening.
Gusty winds will accompany the front along with cooler temperatures
through Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today and tonight, mainly along and behind the front. Low clouds will
develop over the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain and
into the eastern plains tonight, being slow to erode through
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below
normal in eastern New Mexico on Wednesday while the western areas
remain near to slightly above average. A disturbance aloft will dive
toward New Mexico on Thursday, sending another front into the eastern
plains of the state with breezy to windy conditions accompanying. A
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible near and ahead of the
front, but widespread rainfall is not anticipated.


A positively oriented trough over MT/WY will be diving southeastward
today while a weak subtropical low in the eastern Pacific steers some
bouts of mid to high level moisture toward NM. The former feature will
usher a significant cold front into northeastern NM early this
morning before sliding through the east central plains of the state
through the afternoon. There is high confidence that temperatures
will drop substantially in the northeastern plains today, yet there
remains some uncertainty among models with regard to how far south
the front will make it before sunset. In addition to the gusty winds
and cooler temperatures, areas of precipitation will also likely
develop, primarily along the leading edge of the front and also where
upslope flow is properly oriented along the east faces of the Sangre
de Cristos. However, mid level moisture in western high terrain
zones could also yield some stray virga showers or dry storms this
afternoon. While gusty winds are expected today behind the front, a
secondary surge will occur this evening in the east central plains
and also through the gaps/canyons within the central mountain chain.
A wind advisory is being hoisted to account for these windy areas
this evening.

A canopy of low clouds is presumed to develop tonight across the
eastern half of the state in the wake of the front, and these will
slowly burn off into Wednesday with just some scant chances for a
stray remnant shower in central and eastern zones, and perhaps a
virga shower in the west. Otherwise, Wednesday`s high temperatures
will run 5 to 20 degrees below normal in the central to eastern
zones. Meanwhile another upper level perturbation will be diving over
the northern Rockies, poised to bring another front toward NM by

The front will arrive into the northern and eastern zones Thursday,
however temperatures are actually projected to rise in all zones
despite the northerly wind component arriving. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and just east of the central
mountain chain Thursday while the seemingly perpetual, but low,
threat of dry storms continues along and near the Continental Divide.

An upper level ridge will arch over the Rockies into Friday, and the
boundary layer flow will veer southerly in many zones. The GFS
continues to be more bullish and insists on convective QPF over the
western zones, however dewpoints do not appear overly high, and may
not support this. Have undercut POP guidance for western zones
Friday due to skepticism with regards to the arrival/availability of

Forecast models are in loose agreement that the ridge will transition
eastward on Saturday while a broad Pacific low moves inland over the
western states. This could offer a brief squeeze play with very
modest subtropical moisture pushing ahead of the low and into
portions of western to central NM, but again concerns remain high
with regard to the amount of moisture. Forecast models then diverge
appreciably on the track and evolution of this Pacific low through
early next week, keeping low confidence for precipitation prospects.



No significant, widespread critical fire weather conditions through
the next 5-6 days.

Big changes are in-store today with a strong backdoor front surging
into eastern NM. MixHgts, ventilation, temperatures all fall behind
the front across northeastern and east-central NM today. Highs
across the far NE will be as much as 20F below normal today. The
leading edge of the front will enter far NE New Mexico early this
morning, pushing to Tucumcari and Las Vegas by sunrise, and to
roughly Clines Corners to Roswell by noon. The front`s progression
will slow as westerly winds aloft mix down across western and central
NM in the afternoon before surging through the central mtn chain
this evening. Gap winds will reach up to 30-40mph with gusts up to
50mph. Stronger winds 30-40mph will also reach Quay, Curry, and
Roosevelt this evening as the frontal bdry strengthens this evening.

The backdoor front washes up to the AZ border Wed, dropping
temperatures and ventilation along the way. Highs across eastern NM
will be 10-20F below normal. Overnight RH recoveries by Wed morning
will be quite good for nearly all of NM. An upper ridge builds in
over NM trapping the moisture behind the front, allowing for a
healthy crop of cumulus to develop producing virga and some spotty
erratic gusty winds Wed afternoon.

An upper level trough digs south along the front range Thu, sending
another strong backdoor front into eastern NM, and a dry Pacific front
into NW New Mexico. Temperatures are not expected to fall much with
these two frontal features, and the main concern will be another
round of gusty winds along the backdoor front, and dry breezy winds
across the NW plateau. Models continue to show southerly flow sending
increased Gulf moisture into NM by the end of the work week into the
weekend. However, discrepancies remain with just how much moisture
makes it, when it arrives, and whether or not an upper low near
northern CA will be able to spark off a few rounds of wetting
precipitation over the state. Will need to continue to stay tuned on
the evolution of this coming weekend`s forecast.



Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Wednesday for the
following zones... NMZ518-519-534>536.


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