Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200550 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Low pressure inching eastward toward the Four Corners region will
continue spreading strong southerly winds across NM tonight. Wind
speeds will slowly taper off as the night progresses, followed by
development of a few rain showers and high terrain snow over the
northern high terrain and adjacent highlands. Thicker mid and low
cigs are expected to develop over eastern NM as well thru sunrise
with rain showers and a few storms developing by 15Z along and north
of I-40. Winds will turn west-northwest over central and western NM
as the upper low moves across the CO/NM border Friday. Additional
rain showers and perhaps a storm will redevelop over the western high
terrain by late morning then perhaps drift into the Rio Grande Valley
aft 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will slowly cross northern and
central New Mexico tonight through Saturday. Strong to damaging
winds tonight into midday Friday will diminish by Friday afternoon.
Extremely critical fire weather conditions will persist over the
west and central through later tonight. Showers, high terrain snow
showers and thunderstorms will impact most of the region before the
low exits on Saturday night. A few strong to severe storms with
damaging winds gusts are possible over portions of central and
eastern New Mexico through Friday. High temperatures will fall below
average Friday and Saturday. Sunday`s weather will be more tranquil,
but lingering moisture may result in a few showers or thunderstorms
over the higher terrain and east. A stronger cold front may push
into eastern New Mexico next Monday night or Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Extremely critical fire weather conditions, strong to damaging
winds, areas of blowing dust, a few strong to severe storms with dry
microbursts, rain and high terrain snow showers, with some snow
accumulations above 8500-9000 feet in the northern mountains, what
else could you ask for? Don`t think I left anything out. The upper
low pressure system is forecast to cross northern and central New
Mexico tonight through Saturday before exiting Saturday night.

The system isn`t terribly cold and massaged the QPF totals due to
models decreasing the amounts of snow, but got enough for a winter
weather advisory starting at midnight tonight for northern areas
above 9000 feet. An inch or two of snow possible along the ContDvd
Friday night as another lobe rotates around the sprawling upper low.

Wind highlights were readjusted to account for the wind persisting
over the northern high terrain overnight and extended into the
northeast highlands into Friday before the wind finally weakens and
the pseudo dryline heads into TX.

A stronger front early next week, Monday night into Tuesday with
unsettled weather perhaps continuing but no big and dry wind
episodes seen so far.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...DRY MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

Strong south to southeast winds have developed across northern and
central New Mexico today as a deep upper level low moves closer to
the Four Corners. Extremely critical fire weather conditions
continue across western NM as wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph and
relative humidity in the single digits persist. Additionally, very
modest low level moisture will move north up the Rio Grande Valley
this evening. A few, mainly dry, showers or thunderstorms may
develop. If these storms develop, dry microbursts would be possible,
which would enhanced the high winds that are already expected across
central New Mexico. However, moisture advection has been very slow
so far today, and latest model guidance is backing off on the amount
of showers/storms that develop. Nonetheless, even without storm
development, gusts to 60 or 65 mph are possible across central NM.

Meanwhile, additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
develop over the northern mountains overnight. A few inches of snow
are likely above 9000 feet. Strong winds will persist as well. Fair
humidity recoveries are expected across the west tonight, while good
to excellent recoveries are expected elsewhere.

The aforementioned area of precipitation will shift eastward and
expand across the plains on Friday after Gulf moisture continues to
advect into the plains overnight. This should provide some much
needed rainfall to the drought-stricken plains. However, hail and
damaging winds will be possible from a few storms as well.
Meanwhile, an associated cold front/wind shift will move eastward
through western and central NM on Friday. Initially, much drier air
will arrive behind the front as winds shift to the west or
southwest. The front should move through the Rio Grande Valley just
after sunrise. However, wrap-around moisture will arrive during the
afternoon as a lobe of energy swings around the main upper low. Rain
and high elevation snow showers will be possible across western and
northern NM. Good to excellent humidity recoveries are expected
Friday night.

This system will finally move out Saturday morning. A back door cold
front will slide down the plains producing breezy northerly winds.
However, with cooler temperatures and higher humidity in place, no
critical fire weather conditions are expected.

Critical fire weather concerns cease for at least several days next
week. Much less wind is in store for Sunday as a weak ridge develops
over NM. Light southwesterly breezes are expected on Monday, as
temperatures are finally expected to rise back to near or above
normal values for all area. Winds are not expected to be strong
enough for critical conditions.

Another back door cold front will arrive on Tuesday, and this front
should push westward through the gaps of the central mountain chain.
This may set the stage for a few showers or thunderstorms on
Wednesday.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday for the following zones...
NMZ501>506-508-511-512-516-517-520-523-524.

High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Friday for the following zones...
NMZ507-518-519-521-522.

Wind Advisory until noon MDT Friday for the following zones...
NMZ515-527>529.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ510-513-514.

&&

$$



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