141
FXUS65 KABQ 080819 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
219 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will favor the
  central mountain chain eastward, as well as the southwest
  mountains, for the remainder of the work week.

- There will be a risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area
  burn scars this afternoon until 8 PM.

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the middle and lower Rio Grande
  Valley, northwest plateau, and potentially the Glenwood area
  Wednesday through Friday, and also in Roswell starting
  Thursday.

- Moisture is forecast to increase west of the central mountain
  chain this weekend and early next week, increasing thunderstorm
  coverage over northwest areas as far west as the continental
  divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The high pressure system aloft will remain centered near the NM/AZ
border today and Wednesday. It will steer drier air over
northwest areas from the northwest today, then over more of the
forecast area on Wednesday, with a downtick in thunderstorm
coverage each day. The favored area for storms today and Wednesday
will be along and just east of the central mountain chain, and
also over the southwest mountains; however, scattered to isolated
activity is forecast farther east across the eastern plains this
afternoon and evening. Shear and instability profiles support
another marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on the eastern
plains this afternoon and evening. Numerous cells are forecast
around Ruidoso this afternoon, where a Flood Watch for Flash
Flooding will be issued mainly out of concern for recent burn
scars. Antecedent moisture on the scars is high, and the PWAT is
forecast to be well over 1 inch.

Otherwise, with drier air becoming more widespread on Wednesday,
high temperatures are forecast to climb a few to 4 degrees across
the forecast area from today`s readings. This will increase the
coverage of significant heat risk, especially over the middle and
lower Rio Grande Valley, northwest plateau, and around Glenwood.
These locations will need to be watched for a potential Heat
Advisory starting Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 113 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

As the high pressure system aloft remains in place with some
fairly dry air, the heat risk will continue to increase Thursday,
then could linger through Friday, with concern spreading to
include the Roswell area. The NBM is forecasting isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, southwest mountains, and Sacramento Mountains
Thursday and Friday. However, recent deterministic models that
have yet to be incorporated into the NBM are starting to show an
uptick in thunderstorm coverage along and east of the central
mountain chain Thursday because of an upper level trough forecast
to clip northeast NM. The system may then send a backdoor cold
front southwestward into the state, enabling scattered to
potentially numerous storms along and east of the central mountain
chain Friday. If this scenario pans out, the heat risk may improve
significantly Friday at least east of the central mountain chain.

The weekend and early next week look convectively active along and
east of the continental divide, as additional upper level troughs
clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft and send additional
moist backdoor fronts into the state. This pattern is also
notorious for producing strong to severe storms over the eastern
plains (which could develop Thursday and Friday as well).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

High resolution models depict isolated showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping during the late night hours between Las Vegas and
Roswell. On Tuesday afternoon and evening, scattered-to-isolated
showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the central mountain
chain eastward, and also over the southwest mountains. Storm
motion will generally be toward the south around 5-15 KT. A few of
the stronger storms east of the central mountain chain will be
capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and
erratic wind gusts up to 60 mph, as well as quarter diameter hail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

An active monsoon thunderstorm pattern will favor the southwest
mountains and central mountain chain eastward today through
Friday, then potentially as far west as the continental divide
this weekend and early next week. Northwest and west central areas
look to be mostly dry until this weekend. It will also become
quite hot Wednesday through Thursday there, and potentially into
Friday. As low level moisture tries to increase west of the
central mountain chain this weekend, some gusty and dry
thunderstorms will likely be in the mix on the western fringe of
the moisture over the continental divide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  61 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  93  48  96  49 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  92  57  94  60 /   5   0   5  10
Gallup..........................  95  53  96  58 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  91  58  93  60 /   5   5   5  20
Grants..........................  94  56  96  59 /   5   0   5  10
Quemado.........................  92  59  94  63 /  10  10  20  30
Magdalena.......................  92  66  93  68 /  10  10  20  10
Datil...........................  90  59  91  61 /  20  10  20  20
Reserve.........................  98  58 100  58 /  30  20  40  30
Glenwood........................ 102  63 103  63 /  30  20  40  30
Chama...........................  86  50  89  51 /  10   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  87  63  89  65 /  10  10  10   5
Pecos...........................  87  58  89  59 /  20  10  20   5
Cerro/Questa....................  87  56  89  59 /  20   5  10   5
Red River.......................  77  48  80  50 /  20   5  20   5
Angel Fire......................  80  41  82  43 /  20   5  20   0
Taos............................  90  53  92  55 /  10   5  10   5
Mora............................  83  52  86  54 /  30  10  20   5
Espanola........................  96  63  97  62 /  10   5   5   5
Santa Fe........................  90  63  92  64 /  20  10  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  92  62  94  63 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  97  71  98  73 /  10  10   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  69  99  71 /  10  10   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  69 102  70 /  10  10   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  69 100  70 /  10  10   0   5
Belen...........................  99  68 100  68 /  10  10   0  10
Bernalillo......................  99  67 101  68 /  10  10   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  99  66 100  68 /  10  10   0   5
Corrales........................ 100  69 102  70 /  10  10   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0   5
Placitas........................  95  67  97  68 /  10  10   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0   5
Socorro......................... 101  72 102  73 /  10  10   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  61  92  64 /  20  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  92  63  94  66 /  20  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  91  57  93  59 /  20  10  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  55  94  57 /  20  10  10   5
Clines Corners..................  85  58  87  60 /  20  10  10   5
Mountainair.....................  90  59  92  63 /  20  10  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  90  60  91  63 /  20  10  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  92  66  93  67 /  40  20  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  83  59  84  60 /  50  20  30   0
Capulin.........................  82  56  86  58 /  30  10  10   0
Raton...........................  87  56  90  56 /  30  10  20   0
Springer........................  88  56  92  57 /  30  10  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  85  56  88  58 /  30  10  20   0
Clayton.........................  89  63  92  67 /  20  10   5   0
Roy.............................  85  60  89  62 /  20  10  10   0
Conchas.........................  92  64  96  68 /  20  10  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  90  63  92  65 /  30  10  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  90  63  94  68 /  20  20  10   5
Clovis..........................  92  66  94  68 /  30  30   0   5
Portales........................  93  66  95  68 /  30  30   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  94  66  95  68 /  30  20  10   5
Roswell.........................  97  70  98  71 /  10  20   0   0
Picacho.........................  92  63  93  64 /  30  20  10   0
Elk.............................  90  61  90  62 /  40  20  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today until 8 PM this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...44