276
FXUS65 KABQ 112321 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
  across eastern NM through tonight.

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
  along and east of the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday afternoon
  and evening. The flash flood threat will be elevated on area
  burn scars.

- Good chances for showers and storms will persist next week with
  a locally heavy rainfall threat and an elevated flash flood risk
  on area burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The upper level ridge axis has shifted south slightly to southern
NM and is resulting in dry westerlies intruding further east into
central NM today. However, plenty of low level moisture resides
across eastern NM, where surface dewpoint temps are in the 50s
and lower 60s. Another round of storms will take off shortly as
the convective temp is reached and will move east or southeast
into the northeast and east central plains going into the late
afternoon hours, where sufficient shear and instability reside for
a marginal to slight risk for severe storms. The latest NAM is
advertising dCAPE values of around 2,000J/kg across the eastern
plains later this afternoon, which is more than sufficient for
storms to produce damaging wind gusts in addition to the threat
for large hail. The CAMs develop a 2nd round of storms overnight
across the east central plains on the outflow from storms to the
east. The NAM has been bullish on that scenario for a couple days
now, so decided to pull the trigger on a Flash Flood Watch for
tonight out east, trusting the modeling and given solid southeast
low level inflow to interact with the boundary. The area from
Santa Rosa to Tucumcari to Clovis is the highest confidence area
for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding tonight.

A shortwave trough is forecast to drop southeast out of the
central Rockies overnight and down into the TX Panhandle, into
the weakness between two upper highs across the southern US. The
shortwave trough will bring a backdoor front, which will combine
with convective cold-pooling to the east, to push west through the
central mountain chain overnight. A gusty east canyon wind is
forecast in the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valley overnight,
with gusts to between 35-40 mph in the ABQ Metro. Low level
moisture will transport west behind the front to the Continental
Divide, setting the stage for a round of storms on Saturday
afternoon/evening that will focus from the Continental Divide east
through the central mountain chain. Sufficient shear and
instability is being modeled on Saturday afternoon for a round of
strong to severe storms across central NM, where the SPC day 2
convective outlook has a marginal risk for severe storms. The risk
for burn scar flash flooding will be back on the uptrend
Saturday, with sustained low level upslope forcing behind the
backdoor front making for longer-lived updrafts and locally heavy
rainfall. Saturday`s round of storms is being modeled to diminish
with the loss of daytime heating, following a more normal diurnal
downtrend, unlike tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Sunday will be another active day, but with steering flow more
toward the southwest vs south or southeast like Saturday`s, as
the upper high to the west drifts north some and establishes a new
ridge axis over the southern Rockies going into Monday. Locally
heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding are threats for
Sunday, but storm motion toward the southwest may take storms off
of the higher terrain and away from our burn scars, potentially
limiting the threat relative to Saturday. The aforementioned
shortwave trough gets stuck in between the upper high to our west
and a strengthening upper high along the upper Gulf coast going
into Monday, turning into an inverted trough and rotating slowly
across southern NM and into northern MX Mon/Tue. This pattern will
keep moisture in place across our area and lead to an active week,
despite the upper high to our west moving over NM Wed/Thu. The
upper high is forecast to continue moving east and out of NM on
Friday into the following weekend, opening the door for moisture
from the south to surge north and lead to an uptick in coverage of
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Strong to severe storms developing over eastern NM are likely to
organize into linear segments while moving slowly southeast toward
west TX overnight. Direct hits will be capable of producing IFR
vsbys in torrential rainfall along with intense downburst winds,
large hail, and frequent lightning. MVFR low cigs are expected to
develop over portions of eastern NM in the wake of an outflow
boundary surging west to the central mt chain around midnight. The
latest NBM shows a 30-50% chance of MVFR from near KCAO to KRTN,
KLVS, KCQC, and KSRR before sunrise. Gap winds are also expected
to develop in the RGV with an Airport Weather Warning likely (>70%
chance) at KABQ after 07Z. Saturday will be another active day but
with SHRA/TS focused farther west along the central mt chain. This
activity will initiate after 1pm then move south/southeast into
nearby highlands and plains thru sunset. A few storms may become
strong again with locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
across northwest NM this afternoon and early evening as dry
westerlies intrude with the upper level ridge axis shifting
south. However, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast
through at least the next seven days. A backdoor front will
recharge moisture across central NM tonight into Saturday and
lead to renewed chances for wetting storms going forward. Good
chances for wetting storms will persist through next week, with an
elevated threat of burn scar flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  96  61  97 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  46  91  45  91 /   0  30  20  40
Cuba............................  55  88  54  88 /   0  20  20  40
Gallup..........................  50  94  49  94 /   0   0  10  10
El Morro........................  54  89  53  89 /   0  10  20  30
Grants..........................  54  93  53  91 /   0  20  20  30
Quemado.........................  58  91  57  91 /   0  20  30  50
Magdalena.......................  62  88  60  88 /   0  40  40  60
Datil...........................  60  88  55  87 /   0  30  30  60
Reserve.........................  55  95  53  95 /  10  30  30  60
Glenwood........................  60  99  59  98 /  10  40  30  60
Chama...........................  47  82  46  84 /   5  50  30  50
Los Alamos......................  60  80  58  84 /   5  60  30  60
Pecos...........................  55  78  54  82 /  20  60  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  52  83  51  82 /  30  60  30  60
Red River.......................  43  71  43  73 /  40  70  30  60
Angel Fire......................  39  72  38  75 /  30  70  30  60
Taos............................  52  84  49  85 /  20  60  30  50
Mora............................  49  75  48  79 /  30  70  50  60
Espanola........................  59  90  58  92 /  10  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  60  83  58  85 /  10  50  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  59  86  57  88 /  10  50  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  92  65  93 /   5  40  40  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  93  64  93 /   5  30  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  95  64  96 /   5  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  64  94 /   5  30  30  30
Belen...........................  62  95  62  95 /   0  20  30  30
Bernalillo......................  65  93  62  95 /   5  30  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  62  95  61  95 /   0  20  30  30
Corrales........................  66  95  63  95 /   5  30  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  63  95  62  94 /   0  20  30  30
Placitas........................  64  89  61  91 /   5  40  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  65  93  63  95 /   5  30  30  30
Socorro.........................  68  98  66  96 /   5  20  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  85  56  86 /  10  50  50  70
Tijeras.........................  60  86  59  88 /  10  50  50  60
Edgewood........................  55  84  54  86 /  10  50  50  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  84  53  87 /  10  50  50  50
Clines Corners..................  55  75  54  80 /  20  60  60  60
Mountainair.....................  56  84  55  85 /  10  50  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  57  83  56  85 /  10  40  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  63  88  61  88 /  10  40  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  57  79  56  78 /  20  60  60  70
Capulin.........................  52  72  50  79 /  70  50  50  20
Raton...........................  53  77  51  84 /  60  60  50  30
Springer........................  55  78  52  85 /  60  60  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  52  75  51  81 /  30  60  50  40
Clayton.........................  60  76  57  85 /  70  40  30  10
Roy.............................  57  75  55  82 /  70  50  50  20
Conchas.........................  62  82  61  88 /  70  50  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  61  79  59  84 /  50  50  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  59  80  58  85 /  70  40  40  10
Clovis..........................  63  83  62  87 /  50  40  50  20
Portales........................  63  84  62  87 /  50  40  50  20
Fort Sumner.....................  64  84  63  88 /  50  40  40  20
Roswell.........................  70  90  68  90 /  10  40  50  20
Picacho.........................  62  84  62  84 /  20  40  40  30
Elk.............................  60  82  59  82 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-207-219-220.

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ230>237.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
NMZ214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42